In a market dominated by headline-grabbing artificial intelligence (AI) giants, On Semiconductor Company (ON) is quietly inventing the power systems, materials, and technologies that makes the entire AI revolution possible. Yet, ON stock may still be flying under the radar. With accelerating AI revenue, breakthrough innovations in power efficiency, and momentum across automotive, industrial, and data-center markets, this overlooked player could deliver the kind of upside investors aren’t expecting yet. ww ...

ON Semiconductor FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: ON Semiconductor (NasdaqGS:ON) - **Date**: December 09, 2025 - **Speakers**: Hassane El-Khoury (CEO), Thad Trent (CFO) Key Industry Insights - **Market Conditions**: The company has observed stabilization in both the industrial and automotive sectors after a period of decline, indicating a potential recovery phase [2][3][4] - **Inventory Management**: ON Semiconductor has proactively managed inventory levels, resulting in lean inventory on both the balance sheet and in the channel, which positions the company well for future demand increases [2][5] - **Replenishment Cycle**: The company is currently under shipping to burn off excess inventory, with expectations for a replenishment cycle to follow once demand increases [4][12] Financial Performance and Projections - **Utilization Rates**: Current factory utilization is around 70%-74%, with potential for significant gross margin improvement as utilization increases [32][33] - **Gross Margin Impact**: Each percentage point increase in utilization could lead to a 25-30 basis point improvement in gross margin, with a potential increase of 650-700 basis points if fully utilized [33] - **Free Cash Flow**: The company is generating approximately $1.5 billion in free cash flow, with plans to return 100% of it to shareholders through a $6 billion share repurchase program over three years [39][40] Competitive Landscape - **Chinese Competition**: ON Semiconductor has strategically exited low-margin businesses that faced competition from Chinese manufacturers, focusing instead on high-value products where competition is limited [21][22] - **Technological Differentiation**: The company emphasizes its unique technological capabilities, particularly in silicon carbide and GaN products, which are critical for high-voltage applications [28][29] Growth Opportunities - **Silicon Carbide Applications**: The company sees expanding opportunities in silicon carbide beyond automotive, including energy storage systems and data centers [24][25] - **AI Data Center Market**: Revenue from AI data center products has doubled year-on-year, with projections of reaching around $250 million by 2025 [28] - **Treo Platform**: The Treo platform, a 65-nanometer BCD mixed signal analog technology, is expected to generate significant revenue, with a target of $1 billion by 2030 [50][51] Strategic Focus - **Supply Resilience**: The company has maintained a strong supply resilience strategy, which has proven beneficial during market disruptions [16][18] - **R&D Investments**: Continued investment in R&D is a priority, with a focus on developing new products and technologies to drive long-term growth [39][44] Conclusion - ON Semiconductor is navigating a recovery phase in the semiconductor market, with a focus on inventory management, technological differentiation, and strategic growth opportunities in high-value segments. The company's proactive measures and strong financial position are expected to support its long-term objectives and shareholder returns.

Q3 2025 Financial Highlights - Revenue reached $1.55 billion, a 6% increase quarter-over-quarter[15] - Gross margin was 38.0%, a 40 bps increase quarter-over-quarter[15] - Operating margin was 19.2%, a 190 bps increase quarter-over-quarter[15] - Diluted EPS was $0.63, a $0.10 increase quarter-over-quarter[15] - Last Twelve Months (LTM) Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin was 21.9%, an 815 bps increase year-over-year[15] Revenue Breakdown by Market - Automotive revenue was $787 million, a 7% increase quarter-over-quarter[15] - Industrial revenue was $426 million, a 5% increase quarter-over-quarter[15] - Other revenue was $337 million, a 2% increase quarter-over-quarter[15] Q4 2025 Guidance - Revenue is projected to be between $1.48 billion and $1.58 billion (GAAP and Non-GAAP)[27] - GAAP gross margin is expected to be between 36.9% and 38.9%, while Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be between 37.0% and 39.0%[27] - GAAP EPS is projected to be between $0.56 and $0.66, while Non-GAAP EPS is projected to be between $0.57 and $0.67[27] Financial Targets - The company is targeting revenue growth at approximately 3 times the semiconductor industry growth rate[92] - The company is targeting a gross margin of 53%[45, 92] - The company is targeting free cash flow margin between 25% and 30%[46, 92]

Core Insights - On Semiconductor (ON) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on November 3, with projected revenues between $1.465 billion and $1.565 billion and earnings per share (EPS) in the range of 54-64 cents [1][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $1.52 billion, indicating a 14% decline from the previous year's quarter, while the consensus for earnings is 60 cents per share, reflecting a 39.4% decrease year-over-year [2] Performance Analysis - ON has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 1.25% [3] - Factors likely influencing ON's Q3 performance include stabilization in demand across end-markets, a diversified manufacturing footprint mitigating tariff impacts, and improved market share in China [5][10] - The AI data center market is contributing positively to ON's revenues due to a strong portfolio that enhances power density and reduces energy loss [6] - Ongoing momentum from the Treo platform is expected to continue, driven by its differentiated technology and strong customer engagement [7] Margin Considerations - Weakness in the Americas and Europe is anticipated to negatively affect the automotive end-market, with flat utilization expected to lower gross margins, projected in the 36.5%-38.5% range, significantly below the long-term target of 53% [8][10] - ON currently has an Earnings ESP of -2.70% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating lower odds of an earnings beat [9]

Core Insights - onsemi's Treo platform has been selected by Teledyne Technologies to develop next-generation readout integrated circuit (ROIC) ASICs for infrared imaging systems, highlighting its advanced capabilities in the aerospace, defense, security, and scientific sectors [1][4] Company Overview - onsemi is focused on driving disruptive innovations in automotive and industrial markets, addressing megatrends such as vehicle electrification, sustainable energy, industrial automation, and 5G infrastructure [7] Product Features - The Treo platform is built on a 65nm node with a modular architecture and a comprehensive set of IP building blocks, which accelerates development and reduces time-to-market [2] - Key features of the Treo platform include higher gate density for improved functionality in a smaller footprint, lower power dissipation for enhanced efficiency, and dense on-chip energy storage for better signal integrity [8] - The platform also offers low resistivity substrates for resilience against radiation, a wide temperature range for consistent performance, and die stitching to support large-format sensor designs [8] Strategic Importance - The manufacturing of the Treo platform takes place at onsemi's East Fishkill, NY facility, which holds Category 1A Trusted Supplier accreditation, positioning the company to meet U.S. government needs for domestic chip manufacturing in support of national security [6]

Core Insights - onsemi's Treo platform has been selected by Teledyne Technologies to develop next-generation readout integrated circuit (ROIC) ASICs for infrared imaging systems, emphasizing its advanced capabilities in aerospace, defense, security, and scientific applications [1][4]. Group 1: Technology and Features - The Treo platform is built on a 65nm node and features a modular architecture with a rich set of IP building blocks, which accelerates development and reduces time-to-market [2]. - Key features of the Treo platform include higher gate density for improved performance in a smaller footprint, lower power dissipation for enhanced efficiency, and dense on-chip energy storage for better signal integrity [7]. - The platform supports a wide temperature range, ensuring consistent performance in extreme conditions, and includes die stitching for large-format sensor designs [7]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The Treo platform is manufactured in onsemi's East Fishkill, NY facility, which holds Category 1A Trusted Supplier accreditation, addressing the U.S. government's need for domestic chip manufacturing in support of national security [6]. - The platform's capabilities are critical for developing high-performance imaging sensors that operate reliably in harsh environments, which is essential for Teledyne's space products [5]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - onsemi is positioned to drive innovations in various megatrends, including vehicle electrification, sustainable energy grids, and industrial automation, with a focus on delivering intelligent power and sensing technologies [8]. - The collaboration with Teledyne Technologies highlights onsemi's role in advancing next-generation infrared imaging systems, which are vital for mission-critical applications [1][5].

Core Insights - Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) and ON Semiconductor (ON) are significant players in the semiconductor industry, focusing on power solutions for AI data centers and energy systems [1][2] - Investment analysis indicates that ON Semiconductor currently presents a more favorable investment outlook compared to Navitas Semiconductor [2] Group 1: Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) - Navitas Semiconductor is targeting AI data centers and energy infrastructure as key growth areas, with power demand for AI projected to increase from 7 gigawatts in 2023 to over 70 gigawatts by 2030 [3][4] - The company has partnered with NVIDIA to develop 800-volt AI data centers, estimating this market could reach $2.6 billion annually by 2030 [4] - However, NVTS faces near-term challenges, including expected revenue declines due to tariff risks in China and reduced demand in the EV and industrial sectors [5][6] - The Zacks Consensus estimate for NVTS's full-year 2025 revenues is $48.97 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 41.2% [6][7] Group 2: ON Semiconductor (ON) - ON Semiconductor is focusing on automotive, industrial, and AI data center markets, with AI data center revenues nearly doubling year-over-year [10][11] - The company has seen a 23% sequential revenue growth in China, driven by silicon carbide adoption in new EV models [12][14] - ON is restructuring its portfolio by phasing out older products and enhancing its image sensor business for higher-value applications [13] - The Zacks Consensus estimate for ON's full-year 2025 revenues is $5.96 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 15.9% [14][15] Group 3: Valuation and Market Performance - Year-to-date, NVTS shares have surged 294.2%, while ON shares have declined by 19.5% [16] - NVTS trades at a forward sales multiple of 55.47x, significantly higher than ON's 3.31x, making ON a more attractive investment option [19] - ON's combination of rising demand in China and strong AI traction positions it for a stronger recovery compared to NVTS, which is hindered by weak demand in China [22][23]