Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient growth in Q4 2025, with revenue reaching 15.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 16.7% [1][9] - The company's Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 was 3.48 billion CNY, reflecting a 14.7% increase, also exceeding expectations [1][9] - The overall performance in Q4 was strong, with the overseas Trip.com platform maintaining high growth rates during peak season, indicating effective market share acquisition [1][9] - The company is focusing on optimizing user experience and enhancing revenue from transportation services, while domestic hotel prices have stabilized [2][10] - Regulatory developments regarding antitrust investigations and the impact of AI technology on the OTA business model are key areas of focus [3][11] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2025, accommodation booking revenue was 6.29 billion CNY (+21.4%), transportation ticketing revenue was 5.37 billion CNY (+12.3%), and vacation revenue was 1.06 billion CNY (+21.4%) [2][10] - Domestic revenue is estimated to have grown at a high single-digit rate, with hotel night growth between 10-15% [2][10] - The Trip.com platform saw a 60% increase in hotel and flight bookings, contributing to a rise in sales expense ratio to 28.1% [2][10] Financial Forecasts - For 2025, the company expects total revenue of 62.4 billion CNY (+17.1%) and Non-GAAP net profit of 31.84 billion CNY, which includes non-recurring investment gains of 19.9 billion CNY from the sale of Makemytrip shares [1][9] - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted to 20 billion CNY and 23 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook due to regulatory concerns and AI impacts [4][12] - The company maintains a robust buyback program with a total of 5 billion USD, which supports shareholder returns [3][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient growth in Q4 2025, with revenue reaching 15.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 16.7% [1][9] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 was 3.48 billion CNY, reflecting a 14.7% increase, also exceeding expectations [1][9] - The company is focusing on optimizing user experience and expanding its market share, particularly in the overseas Trip.com platform, which continues to show strong growth [2][10] - Regulatory developments regarding antitrust investigations and the impact of AI technology on the OTA business model are key areas of focus [3][11] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2025, accommodation booking revenue was 6.29 billion CNY (+21.4%), transportation ticketing revenue was 5.37 billion CNY (+12.3%), and vacation revenue was 1.06 billion CNY (+21.4%) [2][10] - Domestic hotel prices have stabilized, and the company is actively targeting both older and younger demographics to enhance its market share [2][10] - The Trip.com platform saw a 60% increase in hotel and flight bookings, contributing to a rise in sales expense ratio to 28.1% [2][10] Financial Forecasts - For 2026 and 2027, the company has adjusted its Non-GAAP net profit forecasts to 20 billion CNY and 23 billion CNY, respectively, with a new estimate for 2028 at 26.5 billion CNY [4][12] - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 19.7% for 2024, 17.1% for 2025, and 14.1% for 2026 [5][13] - The company maintains a robust cash position, with cash and cash equivalents expected to reach 46.45 billion CNY in 2025 [13]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group's recent financial performance indicates strong growth driven by increasing global travel demand, with significant year-over-year improvements in both revenue and net profit [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Trip.com Group reported net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 16% [1] - The net profit for the quarter reached 19.9 billion RMB, a substantial rise from 6.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [1] - The financial results exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit growing by 16% and 12% respectively [1] Market Insights - UBS estimates that Trip.com’s overseas revenue for the last quarter will increase by over 50% year-on-year, contributing to 18% of total revenue [1] - The outbound tourism business is expected to maintain a mid-teens growth rate, estimated between 13% to 17% [1] - The impact from the Japanese market is considered limited, as leisure travelers are likely to shift their destinations [1] Domestic Business Outlook - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show resilience in domestic business revenue, benefiting from an increase in hotel occupancy rates [1] - However, the average daily room rates for hotels may experience a slight decline in the low single digits [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group's recent financial performance indicates strong growth driven by increasing global travel demand, with significant year-over-year improvements in both revenue and net profit [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Trip.com Group reported net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB, a 16% increase year-over-year [1] - The net profit for the quarter reached 19.9 billion RMB, a substantial rise from 6.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [1] - The financial results exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit growing by 16% and 12% respectively [1] Market Insights - UBS estimates that Trip.com’s overseas revenue for the last quarter will increase by over 50% year-on-year, contributing to 18% of total revenue [1] - The outbound tourism business is expected to maintain a mid-teens growth rate, estimated between 13% to 17% [1] - The impact of the Japanese market is considered limited, as leisure travelers are likely to shift their destinations [1] Domestic Business Outlook - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show resilience in domestic business revenue, benefiting from an increase in hotel occupancy rates [1] - However, the average daily room rates for hotels may experience a slight decline in the low single digits [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's recent financial performance shows significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by increasing global travel demand, although the stock price has declined by over 3% following the earnings report [1] Financial Performance - Ctrip Group reported a net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% [1] - The net profit for the quarter reached 19.9 billion RMB, a substantial increase compared to 6.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [1] - The financial results exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit growing by 16% and 12% year-on-year, respectively [1] Market Insights - According to Zhongyin International, Ctrip's progress in acquiring traffic in both domestic and overseas markets (Trip.com platform) has been notable [1] - UBS estimates that Trip.com's overseas revenue for the last quarter will increase by over 50% year-on-year, accounting for 18% of total revenue [1] - The outbound tourism business is expected to maintain a mid-double-digit growth rate (approximately 13% to 17%), with limited impact from the Japanese market as leisure travelers shift destinations [1] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show resilience in domestic business revenue, benefiting from an increase in hotel occupancy rates, although the average daily room rate may experience a slight decline [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) reported third-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit increasing by 16% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, indicating significant progress in traffic acquisition in both domestic and overseas markets [1] Financial Performance - Revenue growth of 16% year-on-year in Q3 [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit increased by 12% year-on-year [1] Market Position and Strategy - Ctrip is expected to maintain good growth in its core market until Q4 2025 [1] - The stable competitive landscape in China is anticipated to allow Ctrip to focus more on expanding its overseas market [1] Analyst Rating - The firm reiterated a "Buy" rating for Ctrip and raised the target price from 630 HKD to 638 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) reported third-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit increasing by 16% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, indicating significant progress in traffic acquisition in both domestic and overseas markets [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 16% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit grew by 12% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to maintain good growth in its core market until the fourth quarter of 2025 [1] - A stable competitive landscape in China will allow Ctrip to focus more on expanding its overseas market [1] Group 3: Analyst Rating and Price Target - The rating for Ctrip has been reaffirmed as "Buy" [1] - The target price has been raised from 630 HKD to 638 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip's Q3 financial report exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit growing by 16% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, indicating significant progress in traffic acquisition in both domestic and overseas markets [1] Group 1 - Ctrip's revenue growth of 16% year-on-year reflects strong performance in the domestic market [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit increased by 12% year-on-year, showcasing operational efficiency [1] - The report highlights Ctrip's notable advancements in traffic acquisition on the Trip.com platform for overseas markets [1] Group 2 - The stable competitive landscape in the domestic market is expected to allow Ctrip to focus more on expanding its overseas market presence [1] - The target price for Ctrip has been raised from 630 HKD to 638 HKD, reaffirming a "buy" rating [1]