酒店行业变化更新 20251209 摘要 服务消费政策逐渐明确，如假期灵活性提升，预计将显著提升 2026 年 第二季度旅游需求，尤其春假在全国范围推广的可能性高，将直接利好 酒店及相关产业。 维持对 2025 年第四季度和 2026 年第一季度酒店板块景气度环比继续 改善的判断，主要基于需求相对稳定和基数降低带来的降幅收窄，华住 等数据显示已接近回正或正增长。 酒店行业整体供给增速预计不会放缓，主要集中在小型物业，大型物业 增速趋缓，核心区域优质供给相对理性，连锁集团通过提价维持利润率， 具备较强价格定价权。 湖北国资委和湖北文旅入主君亭酒店后，市场预期通过注入轻资产、高 利润业务如酒店管理业务来提升业绩，而非短期内注入重资产，直营店 已恢复正常盈利状态。 君亭酒店集团在国际化方面与精选国际和希尔顿合作，推出凯逸和凯富 等新产品，装修成本和回收期均优于竞争对手，加盟策略采取差异化打 法，对加盟商让利。 Q&A 近期酒店行业板块波动的主要原因是什么？ 酒店行业板块近期的波动主要归因于政策预期的变化。市场此前对服务消费领 域的政策有较高预期，尤其是在政治局会议前，投资者希望看到更多关于服务 消费相关政策的加码。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group's recent financial performance indicates strong growth driven by increasing global travel demand, with significant year-over-year improvements in both revenue and net profit [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Trip.com Group reported net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 16% [1] - The net profit for the quarter reached 19.9 billion RMB, a substantial rise from 6.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [1] - The financial results exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit growing by 16% and 12% respectively [1] Market Insights - UBS estimates that Trip.com’s overseas revenue for the last quarter will increase by over 50% year-on-year, contributing to 18% of total revenue [1] - The outbound tourism business is expected to maintain a mid-teens growth rate, estimated between 13% to 17% [1] - The impact from the Japanese market is considered limited, as leisure travelers are likely to shift their destinations [1] Domestic Business Outlook - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show resilience in domestic business revenue, benefiting from an increase in hotel occupancy rates [1] - However, the average daily room rates for hotels may experience a slight decline in the low single digits [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group's recent financial performance indicates strong growth driven by increasing global travel demand, with significant year-over-year improvements in both revenue and net profit [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Trip.com Group reported net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB, a 16% increase year-over-year [1] - The net profit for the quarter reached 19.9 billion RMB, a substantial rise from 6.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [1] - The financial results exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit growing by 16% and 12% respectively [1] Market Insights - UBS estimates that Trip.com’s overseas revenue for the last quarter will increase by over 50% year-on-year, contributing to 18% of total revenue [1] - The outbound tourism business is expected to maintain a mid-teens growth rate, estimated between 13% to 17% [1] - The impact of the Japanese market is considered limited, as leisure travelers are likely to shift their destinations [1] Domestic Business Outlook - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show resilience in domestic business revenue, benefiting from an increase in hotel occupancy rates [1] - However, the average daily room rates for hotels may experience a slight decline in the low single digits [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's stock rose nearly 4% following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report, reflecting strong performance driven by increased global travel demand [1] Financial Performance - Ctrip's net operating revenue for Q3 reached 18.3 billion RMB (approximately 2.6 billion USD), marking a 16% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's net profit for the quarter was 19.9 billion RMB (around 2.8 billion USD), significantly up from 6.8 billion RMB in Q3 2024 [1] International Business Growth - Ctrip's international business showed remarkable growth, with total bookings on its international OTA platform increasing by approximately 60% year-on-year [1] - Inbound tourism bookings surged by over 100% compared to the previous year [1] - Bookings for outbound hotels and flights have reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [1]

Core Insights - TUI, Europe's largest tour operator, reported that its earnings for the 2025 fiscal year surpassed its guidance due to robust demand for hotels and cruises [1] Company Summary - TUI's earnings exceeded expectations, indicating strong performance in the travel sector [1] - The growth in earnings is attributed to increased demand specifically in hotel and cruise segments [1] Industry Summary - The travel and tourism industry is experiencing a rebound, with significant demand for hospitality and cruise services [1]

Core Insights - The demand for Russian tourists traveling to North Korea has surged two to four times over the past year and a half [1] - The Moscow office of "Orient International Travel Agency" reported a fourfold increase in demand for North Korean tourism [1] - Overall demand for travel to North Korea from Russia has doubled in the same timeframe [1]