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Can Gilead's HIV Portfolio Sustain Its Growth Trend in 2026?
ZACKS· 2026-02-13 15:41
Core Insights - Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with HIV product sales increasing by 6%, driven by a 7% growth in Biktarvy and a 47% surge in its prevention portfolio [1][2][10] Group 1: HIV Product Performance - Biktarvy holds over 52% market share in the HIV treatment market and is the most prescribed therapy for both treatment-naïve and switch patients [2] - Descovy's sales increased by 31% year over year to $2.8 billion, accounting for more than 45% of the U.S. market share in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) [3] - The FDA approved injectable lenacapavir (Yeztugo), which offers a twice-yearly dosing schedule, enhancing adherence compared to daily oral regimens [4] Group 2: Financial Projections and Growth Drivers - Despite a $900 million headwind from the Medicare Part D redesign, HIV sales grew 10% when excluding this impact, surpassing management's annual target of 5% growth [2][10] - Gilead expects total HIV sales to grow approximately 6% year over year in 2026, with potential growth of 8% when excluding pricing pressures and channel mix shifts [6] - Early uptake of Yeztugo generated $150 million in 2025, with projected revenues of approximately $800 million in 2026 [5] Group 3: Research and Development Initiatives - Positive phase III results from ARTISTRY-1 and ARTISTRY-2 studies for the investigational BIC/LEN regimen increase the likelihood of regulatory approval, potentially launching by year-end [7] - Gilead is collaborating with Merck to advance its HIV pipeline, with data from studies on islatrovir plus lenacapavir expected in 2026 [8] - Plans to initiate a phase III study evaluating lenacapavir plus broadly neutralizing antibodies are set for the second half of the year [9] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Gilead faces competition from major players like GSK and Merck in the HIV treatment market, with GSK's growth driven by long-acting injectable medicines [11] - Merck markets doravirine and is evaluating a once-daily oral regimen for treatment-naïve adults with HIV-1 infection [12] Group 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - GILD shares surged 45.9% over the past year, outperforming the industry's growth of 19.6% [15] - The current price/earnings ratio for GILD is 17.46x forward earnings, higher than its historical mean but lower than the large-cap pharma industry average of 18.51x [16]
Will GILD's Strong HIV Portfolio Reap Rewards in 2026?
ZACKS· 2025-12-19 14:16
Core Insights - Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) maintains a leading position in the HIV market, primarily driven by its flagship therapies Biktarvy and Descovy, which have significantly contributed to the company's revenue growth in recent quarters [1][9] Gilead's HIV Portfolio - The FDA approved lenacapavir, branded as Yeztugo, as the first and only twice-yearly injectable HIV-1 capsid inhibitor for prevention, enhancing GILD's HIV portfolio amid generic competition for Truvada [2][9] - Yeztugo's competitive edge lies in its biannual dosing, appealing to a broader population compared to daily oral medications [3] - Gilead's investigational single-tablet regimen combining bictegravir and lenacapavir has met primary endpoints in phase III studies, indicating potential for regulatory submission [4][5] Competitive Landscape - The HIV treatment market includes major competitors like GSK and Merck, with GSK's HIV portfolio benefiting from strong demand for long-acting injectables and Dovato, while Merck markets doravirine in various formulations [7][8][10] Financial Performance - Gilead's stock has increased by 31.2% over the past year, outperforming the industry average growth of 15% [11] - The company's shares are trading at a price/earnings ratio of 14.32x forward earnings, which is above its historical mean of 10.93x but below the large-cap pharma industry's average of 17.11x [12] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have risen to $8.17 from $8.07, while the estimate for 2026 has slightly decreased to $8.50 from $8.51 [13]