CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Dec. 19, 2025: Stocks End Week Higher Despite Early Stumbles Last Updated: 16 hours ago U.S. Treasury Yields Rise After BOJ Rate Hike By Emese Bartha, Dow Jones Newswires U.S. Treasury yields rose across maturities in early trade, after the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 bps to a three-decade high of 0.75%. Investors might also reassess the big drop in U.S. November inflation, as it might have to do with data challenges caused by the government shutdown, rather than with c ...

Simply put, lower interest rates could indicate a stabilizing economy, though recent data shows inflation has been somewhat stubborn. Given that COLA adjustments are typically tied to inflation rates, investors can assess via longer-duration bond yields where inflation may come in at over the coming year or two.As many investors may be aware, the annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) put forward by the Social Security Administration is aimed at helping seniors navigate rising prices across the economy. Th ...

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Dec. 8, 2025.One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 1 basis point to 4.204%. The 30-year Treasury yield was up 1 basis point at 4.819%, while the 2-year Treasury yield nudged higher by more than a basis point to 3.625%.U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Wednesday as investors keenly anticipated the Federal Reserve's interest rate decis ...

Core Insights - Developments in Japan are posing a risk that U.S. Treasury market investors may choose to retain more of their savings domestically instead of investing abroad [1] Group 1 - The changing economic landscape in Japan could influence investor behavior in the U.S. Treasury market [1] - There is a potential shift in capital allocation as investors reassess their strategies in light of Japan's developments [1]

Economic and Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a decline, marking a third consecutive session of losses against major currencies such as the euro, yen, and Swiss franc, influenced by U.S.-China tensions and Federal Reserve remarks [1][2] - The dollar weakened by 0.49% to 0.793 against the Swiss franc, reflecting ongoing trade tensions and market uncertainty [2] - The dollar index fell by 0.33% to 98.35, with U.S. Treasury yields near multi-week lows, indicating pressure on the dollar amid a potential prolonged U.S. government shutdown [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports another interest rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting due to mixed job market signals [3] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates emerging economic weakness, including rising layoffs and reduced spending among middle and lower-income households, which may influence future rate decisions [4] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The dominant narrative remains U.S.-China trade tensions, with China increasing pressure ahead of a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, raising questions about potential negotiation strategies [2] European Economic Developments - French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes, allowing him to deliver a budget and temporarily suspending controversial pension reforms, which positively impacted the euro, pushing it to a one-week high at $1.1688 [6]

Currency Market Insights - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a third consecutive daily loss against the euro, while it is slightly increasing against the yen due to ongoing U.S.-China tensions and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials [1] - The dollar index is down 0.05% at 98.64, indicating a potential weekly decline of around 0.3% [2] - U.S. Treasury yields are near multi-week lows, with the benchmark 10-year yield just above 4%, which is putting pressure on the dollar amid concerns over a prolonged U.S. government shutdown [3] Rare Earths and Trade Relations - Investors are closely monitoring China's recent expansion of rare earth export controls, which has been criticized by U.S. officials for potentially disrupting global supply chains [5] - There is speculation that China's export controls may be a bargaining tactic to gain concessions from the U.S. [5] - The escalation in Sino-U.S. trade tensions is prompting reactions from European governments, highlighting the potential impact on global supply chains and European output [6] European Political Developments - The euro reached a one-week high, increasing by 0.09% to $1.1651, following the survival of French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu in a no-confidence vote [7]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury yields are declining due to the ongoing government shutdown, with expectations for the 10-year yield to eventually rise towards 4.5% being hindered for the time being [1] Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to rise towards 4.5% from a structural perspective, but the current government shutdown is expected to prevent this increase from occurring in the near term [1] - The strategists do not foresee the 4% level being broken on the downside without more reliable data to support such a move [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is expected to become a recognized reserve asset alongside gold within the next decade, although gold will maintain its lead in official holdings for the time being [1][3] - The U.S. dollar constitutes 57% of global reserves, but there are emerging signs of diversification, particularly with a notable decrease in China's U.S. Treasury holdings by $57 billion in 2024 [1][3] Group 1: Bitcoin and Gold Dynamics - Bitcoin and gold are seen as complementary hedges against inflation and geopolitical risks due to their scarcity and low correlation with other assets [2][4] - Gold reached a record high of $3,763, increasing over 40% year-to-date, indicating strong demand for precious metals [2] Group 2: Bitcoin's Volatility and Adoption - Bitcoin's volatility, which has historically hindered its status as a reserve asset, is decreasing, with its 30-day volatility hitting historic lows in August while prices exceeded $123,500 [3][4] - The adoption trajectory of Bitcoin is expected to mirror that of gold, transitioning from skepticism to widespread acceptance, facilitated by regulation and macroeconomic trends [4]