Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets. Core Insights - The report indicates a less urgent need for substantial policy easing in the near term, with June PMI surveys showing resilient economic momentum and Q2 real GDP growth tracking slightly above 5% [5] - The report suggests a gradual descent of the USD/CNY exchange rate, with a forecast of 6.90 for the USD/CNY spot in 12 months, implying limited total returns for long CNY positions against the USD [5] - The rates market is expected to continue short-term consolidation, with interest rates in China drifting lower over the medium term due to resilient economic growth and limited appetite for significant easing [6] Valuations and Policy Stance - The USD/CNY spot fell further in June, while the CNY depreciated modestly against the CFETS basket, indicating a shift in valuations [10] - The countercyclical factor widened in June, suggesting an appreciation bias in the USD/CNY fixing [17] Technicals - The carry-to-volatility ratio for USD/CNH and EUR/CNH remained largely unchanged in June, indicating stable market conditions [20] - Momentum to buy USD or EUR and sell CNH remained largely unchanged, reflecting consistent trading patterns [21] Fundamentals - China's trade balance rose in May, driven by a higher goods trade surplus, indicating strong export performance [32] - Long-term cash bond yields and NDIRS rates remained largely stable in June, suggesting a balanced outlook for bond markets [38] - The consensus forecast for CPI inflation edged down in June, while the forecast for real GDP growth edged up, reflecting a mixed economic outlook [56] Liquidity and Leverage - The PBOC injected liquidity into the interbank market in June primarily through pledged reverse repos, indicating active liquidity management [58] - Repo rates declined in early to mid-June before rising at the quarter-end due to seasonal liquidity demand, reflecting fluctuations in funding conditions [61] Bond Supply and Demand - Net issuance of central government bonds was around RMB 706 billion in June 2025, with the central government utilizing 51% of the annual issuance quota [69] - Local government general bond net issuance was around RMB 94 billion in June 2025, with local governments utilizing 56% of their general bond issuance quota [72]

USD/CNY fix model Foreign Exchange - Asia ex-Japan Projection: 7.1799 Model projection: 7.1799 versus 7.1789 previous (10 pips higher; 3 pips lower from the previous official spot close). Model projection with counter-cyclical factor: 7.1746 (43 pips lower from previous fix). Research Analysts Asia FX Strategy Craig Chan - NSL craig.chan@nomura.com Wee Choon Teo - NSL weechoon.teo@nomura.com Vicky Chen - NSL vicky.chen1@nomura.com Manthan Shingala - NSL manthan.shingala1@nomura.com Fig. 1: Top 4 weighted ov ...

USD/CNY fix model Foreign Exchange - Asia ex-Japan Model projection: 7.1680 versus 7.1803 previous (123 pips lower; 144 pips lower from the previous official spot close). Wee Choon Teo - NSL weechoon.teo@nomura.com Projection: 7.1680 Vicky Chen - NSL vicky.chen1@nomura.com Manthan Shingala - NSL manthan.shingala1@nomura.com Fig. 1: Top 4 weighted overnight contribution to projected change (without counter-cyclical factor) ■Top 4 weighted contribution to projected change (pips) 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 - ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific securities [1]. Core Insights - The model projection for USD/CNY fix is 7.2967, which is 912 pips higher than the previous projection of 7.2055, and 87 pips higher from the previous official spot close [1]. - The model projection with the counter-cyclical factor is 7.2484, indicating a 429 pips increase from the previous fix [1]. Summary by Sections - **Model Projections**: The USD/CNY fix model indicates a significant increase in projections, reflecting market expectations and potential currency fluctuations [1]. - **Analyst Contributions**: The report includes contributions from multiple analysts, indicating a collaborative approach to the analysis of the Asia FX strategy [2]. - **Event Calendar**: Key upcoming events involving China include the G-24 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting on April 22, 2025, and a Politburo meeting for economic work at the end of April 2025 [9].