Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China FX and rates markets**, analyzing the impact of external demand, domestic economic conditions, and tariff risks on the Chinese economy and currency. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **External Demand and Economic Growth** - External demand continues to support economic growth, with robust export growth exceeding expectations in September despite a softening of domestic demand in July and August. A structural tailwind in high-tech manufacturing, particularly in AI-related industries, is expected to sustain export momentum in the coming months [2][2][2] 2. **Growth Target and Policy Implementation** - The indicators suggest that the growth target of "around 5%" remains on track for the year. The implementation of previously announced policies, including RMB 500 billion in new financing instruments, is anticipated to cushion domestic weaknesses by the end of 2025 and early 2026 [2][2][2] 3. **Tariff Risks and Economic Uncertainty** - The latest tariff threats from the US introduce uncertainty, but it is believed that both sides will likely pull back from the most aggressive policies. Risks have increased, and the range of outcomes has broadened significantly [2][2][2] 4. **CNY Resilience Amid Tariff Risks** - The CNY has shown resilience against the USD despite several rounds of tariff announcements, contrasting with the significant depreciation seen during the 2018-19 tariff hikes. This reflects a preference for FX stability to discourage capital outflows [2][2][2] 5. **CGB Yields and Market Sentiment** - CGB yields experienced a bull flattening due to tariff-driven growth concerns, with expectations for 10-year CGB yields to hover around 1.8% over the next 12 months. The urgency for renewed CGB purchases by the PBOC is limited, as over 80% of the government bond issuance quota for the year has been utilized [3][3][3] 6. **Liquidity Management by PBOC** - The PBOC injected additional liquidity from August to September to meet quarter-end funding demands, and overnight repo rates have mostly remained below the OMO target in recent weeks [3][3][3] 7. **Trade Balance and FX Conversion Ratio** - China's trade balance fell from July to August due to a lower goods trade surplus. The FX conversion ratio has consistently remained below previous years' levels since mid-2022, indicating potential challenges in FX inflows related to goods trade [28][30][30] 8. **Foreign Exchange Reserves** - As of August, China's official FX reserves stood at USD 3.3 trillion, with commercial banks holding USD 1.2 trillion in net external assets. This indicates a stable external position despite the ongoing tariff risks [38][38][38] Other Important Insights 1. **Market Volatility and Technical Factors** - Technical factors and market sentiment are expected to drive volatility in the CGB market in the near term, influenced by regulatory changes and the PBOC's actions [3][3][3] 2. **Bond Issuance and Demand** - The net issuance of central government bonds was around RMB 728 billion in September 2025, with local governments utilizing 78% of their general bond issuance quota as of August 2025 [82][86][86] 3. **Investor Behavior** - Despite large volumes of CGB issuance, funds, foreign investors, and securities companies continued to sell CGBs, indicating a cautious approach among investors amid the current economic climate [111][111][111] 4. **FX Policy Announcements** - A summary of major FX policy announcements since 2020 highlights the PBOC's ongoing efforts to stabilize the exchange rate and manage capital flows, reflecting a proactive approach to mitigate risks associated with external pressures [113][113][113] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the China FX and rates markets, along with the implications of external and domestic factors on economic performance.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets. Core Insights - The report indicates a less urgent need for substantial policy easing in the near term, with June PMI surveys showing resilient economic momentum and Q2 real GDP growth tracking slightly above 5% [5] - The report suggests a gradual descent of the USD/CNY exchange rate, with a forecast of 6.90 for the USD/CNY spot in 12 months, implying limited total returns for long CNY positions against the USD [5] - The rates market is expected to continue short-term consolidation, with interest rates in China drifting lower over the medium term due to resilient economic growth and limited appetite for significant easing [6] Valuations and Policy Stance - The USD/CNY spot fell further in June, while the CNY depreciated modestly against the CFETS basket, indicating a shift in valuations [10] - The countercyclical factor widened in June, suggesting an appreciation bias in the USD/CNY fixing [17] Technicals - The carry-to-volatility ratio for USD/CNH and EUR/CNH remained largely unchanged in June, indicating stable market conditions [20] - Momentum to buy USD or EUR and sell CNH remained largely unchanged, reflecting consistent trading patterns [21] Fundamentals - China's trade balance rose in May, driven by a higher goods trade surplus, indicating strong export performance [32] - Long-term cash bond yields and NDIRS rates remained largely stable in June, suggesting a balanced outlook for bond markets [38] - The consensus forecast for CPI inflation edged down in June, while the forecast for real GDP growth edged up, reflecting a mixed economic outlook [56] Liquidity and Leverage - The PBOC injected liquidity into the interbank market in June primarily through pledged reverse repos, indicating active liquidity management [58] - Repo rates declined in early to mid-June before rising at the quarter-end due to seasonal liquidity demand, reflecting fluctuations in funding conditions [61] Bond Supply and Demand - Net issuance of central government bonds was around RMB 706 billion in June 2025, with the central government utilizing 51% of the annual issuance quota [69] - Local government general bond net issuance was around RMB 94 billion in June 2025, with local governments utilizing 56% of their general bond issuance quota [72]