Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets. Core Insights - The report indicates a less urgent need for substantial policy easing in the near term, with June PMI surveys showing resilient economic momentum and Q2 real GDP growth tracking slightly above 5% [5] - The report suggests a gradual descent of the USD/CNY exchange rate, with a forecast of 6.90 for the USD/CNY spot in 12 months, implying limited total returns for long CNY positions against the USD [5] - The rates market is expected to continue short-term consolidation, with interest rates in China drifting lower over the medium term due to resilient economic growth and limited appetite for significant easing [6] Valuations and Policy Stance - The USD/CNY spot fell further in June, while the CNY depreciated modestly against the CFETS basket, indicating a shift in valuations [10] - The countercyclical factor widened in June, suggesting an appreciation bias in the USD/CNY fixing [17] Technicals - The carry-to-volatility ratio for USD/CNH and EUR/CNH remained largely unchanged in June, indicating stable market conditions [20] - Momentum to buy USD or EUR and sell CNH remained largely unchanged, reflecting consistent trading patterns [21] Fundamentals - China's trade balance rose in May, driven by a higher goods trade surplus, indicating strong export performance [32] - Long-term cash bond yields and NDIRS rates remained largely stable in June, suggesting a balanced outlook for bond markets [38] - The consensus forecast for CPI inflation edged down in June, while the forecast for real GDP growth edged up, reflecting a mixed economic outlook [56] Liquidity and Leverage - The PBOC injected liquidity into the interbank market in June primarily through pledged reverse repos, indicating active liquidity management [58] - Repo rates declined in early to mid-June before rising at the quarter-end due to seasonal liquidity demand, reflecting fluctuations in funding conditions [61] Bond Supply and Demand - Net issuance of central government bonds was around RMB 706 billion in June 2025, with the central government utilizing 51% of the annual issuance quota [69] - Local government general bond net issuance was around RMB 94 billion in June 2025, with local governments utilizing 56% of their general bond issuance quota [72]

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Research 27 June 2025 China Local Markets Weekly Chinese corporates still behind the curve on de- dollarization Executive summary Emerging Markets Strategy Tiffany Wang AC (852) 2800-1726 tiffany.r.wang@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Arindam Sandilya (65) 6882-7759 arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch Grace Ng (852) 2800-7002 grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com JPMorg ...

June 20, 2025 05:45 PM GMT Global Rates Strategy | Global M Update Government Bond Auctions: The Month Ahead We review the supply, coupon, and redemption picture for the US, UK, Euro, JPY, AUS, NZ, and CAN government bond markets over the next month. This week, G7 net DV01 is expected to be $94.3mn/bp, compared to an average* $72.3mn/bp; US $71.2mn/ bp; Euro $3.4mn/bp; Japan $7.4mn/bp; UK $8.5mn/bp. The Week Ahead: Net issuance (gross issuance less coupons less redemptions) In the euro area, we estimate abo ...

芯片超人现有 1600平米 芯片智能仓储基地，现货库存型号 1000+ ，品牌高达 100种 ， 5000万颗 现 货库存芯片，总重量 10吨 ，库存价值高达 1亿+ 。同时，芯片超人在深圳设有独立实验室，每颗物料 均 安排QC质检 。 求购以下料号 | 品牌 | 型号 | 数量 | | --- | --- | --- | | ST | STPS30170DJF-TR | 21K | | TDK | ICM-42688-P | 40K | | 英飞凌 | TLD2314EL | 10K | | TI | CDC3RL02BYFPR | 30K | | 村田 | XRCGB27M000FAN16R0 | 15K | | 村田 | DFE322520FD-4R7M | 100K | 优势物料，特价出售 | 品牌 | 型号 | 数量 | 年份 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Micron | MT53E1536M32D4DT-046 AIT:A TR | 350000PCS | 22+到24+ | | BROADCOM | BCM53284MKPBG | 558PCS | 22+ | | ...

芯片超人现有 1600平米 芯片智能仓储基地，现货库存型号 1000+ ，品牌高达 100种 ， 5000万颗 现 货库存芯片，总重量 10吨 ，库存价值高达 1亿+ 。同时，芯片超人在深圳设有独立实验室，每颗物料 均 安排QC质检 。 | 品牌 | 型号 | 数量 | | --- | --- | --- | | 村田 | XRCGB27M000FAN16R0 | 15K | | 村田 | DFE322520FD-4R7M | 100K | 优势物料，特价出售 | 品牌 | 型号 | 数量 | 年份 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ON | NCV47701PDAJR2G | 5000PCS | 23+ | | ST | STW56N65DM2 | 1470PCS | 20+ | | ADI | HMC376LP3E | 3500PCS | 21+ | | ST | SPC56EL70L5CBFSR | 5K | 22+ | | ST | SPC56EL60L5CBFQR | 5K | 22+ | | INFINEON | SAK-TC367DP-64F300S AA | 3265 ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Research 30 May 2025 China Local Markets Weekly Uncertainty is the only certainty here Executive summary Current trade recommendations | Current outright trades | Entry Date | Entry | Current | P&L | Relevant Note | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Long 3y CGB (FX-hedged) | 7-Mar-2025 | 1.53% | 1.49% | +4bp | Note | | GBI-EM Model Portfolio | Positions | Weight | | | | | CNY FX | MW | | | | | | CNY bonds | MW | | | | | Source: J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Research 19 May 2025 Correction (first published 16 May 2025) China Local Markets Weekly Implications of a US-China tariff ceasefire Executive summary Emerging Markets Strategy Tiffany Wang AC (852) 2800-1726 tiffany.r.wang@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Arindam Sandilya (65) 6882-7759 arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch Gr ...