随着全球数字化进程的不断加速，数字货币的应用逐渐成为国际支付和跨境贸易结算中的一项重要趋 势。作为中国央行推出的数字货币，数字人民币（e-CNY）不仅仅是人民币的数字化形式，更代表了中 国在全球经济体系中深化改革、提升竞争力的一项战略举措。通过智能合约技术，数字人民币有望在跨 境贸易结算中发挥重要作用。 我们需要了解智能合约的基本概念。智能合约是一种基于区块链技术的自动化执行协议，能够根据预设 的规则自动执行合约条款。在跨境贸易结算中，数字人民币的智能合约能够在不依赖第三方中介的情况 下，自动完成支付、结算及货物交付等一系列环节。利用区块链的去中心化特性，数字人民币不仅能提 高结算的效率和透明度，还能大幅度降低交易成本和操作风险。 在跨境贸易中，传统的支付体系通常依赖于中介机构，如银行和支付清算机构，这使得跨境结算流程较 为繁琐且时间较长。而数字人民币的智能合约则通过去中心化的机制，解决了这一痛点。数字人民币智 能合约能够在跨境交易双方达成共识后，自动触发支付，确保交易的安全性和时效性。例如，当买方在 交易平台上选择使用数字人民币支付时，智能合约会自动验证交易双方的信息，确保合约条件被满足 后，立即完成资金划 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant growth in the renewable energy sector, with investments reaching $500 billion in 2022, marking a 25% increase from the previous year [1][2][3] - Major companies are shifting their focus towards sustainable practices, with 70% of firms planning to increase their renewable energy investments in the next five years [4][5] - The demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is surging, with sales projected to exceed 20 million units globally by 2025, representing a 40% annual growth rate [6][7] Group 2 - The report indicates that government policies are increasingly supportive of green technologies, with over 50 countries implementing stricter emissions regulations [8][9] - The solar energy market is expected to grow by 30% annually, driven by technological advancements and decreasing costs [10][11] - Investment in battery storage solutions is projected to reach $100 billion by 2025, as companies seek to enhance energy efficiency and reliability [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets. Core Insights - The report indicates a less urgent need for substantial policy easing in the near term, with June PMI surveys showing resilient economic momentum and Q2 real GDP growth tracking slightly above 5% [5] - The report suggests a gradual descent of the USD/CNY exchange rate, with a forecast of 6.90 for the USD/CNY spot in 12 months, implying limited total returns for long CNY positions against the USD [5] - The rates market is expected to continue short-term consolidation, with interest rates in China drifting lower over the medium term due to resilient economic growth and limited appetite for significant easing [6] Valuations and Policy Stance - The USD/CNY spot fell further in June, while the CNY depreciated modestly against the CFETS basket, indicating a shift in valuations [10] - The countercyclical factor widened in June, suggesting an appreciation bias in the USD/CNY fixing [17] Technicals - The carry-to-volatility ratio for USD/CNH and EUR/CNH remained largely unchanged in June, indicating stable market conditions [20] - Momentum to buy USD or EUR and sell CNH remained largely unchanged, reflecting consistent trading patterns [21] Fundamentals - China's trade balance rose in May, driven by a higher goods trade surplus, indicating strong export performance [32] - Long-term cash bond yields and NDIRS rates remained largely stable in June, suggesting a balanced outlook for bond markets [38] - The consensus forecast for CPI inflation edged down in June, while the forecast for real GDP growth edged up, reflecting a mixed economic outlook [56] Liquidity and Leverage - The PBOC injected liquidity into the interbank market in June primarily through pledged reverse repos, indicating active liquidity management [58] - Repo rates declined in early to mid-June before rising at the quarter-end due to seasonal liquidity demand, reflecting fluctuations in funding conditions [61] Bond Supply and Demand - Net issuance of central government bonds was around RMB 706 billion in June 2025, with the central government utilizing 51% of the annual issuance quota [69] - Local government general bond net issuance was around RMB 94 billion in June 2025, with local governments utilizing 56% of their general bond issuance quota [72]

Group 1: Offshore Renminbi Market - In June, both offshore (CNH) and onshore (CNY) Renminbi appreciated against the US dollar, with CNH closing at 7.1575 and CNY at 7.1656, representing increases of 0.68% and 0.41% respectively compared to the previous month [3][4] - The average daily spread between CNY and CNH increased by 5 basis points to 66 basis points [3] - The CFETS Renminbi exchange rate index and indices based on BIS and SDR currency baskets decreased by 0.64%, 0.86%, and 0.86% respectively [3] Group 2: Offshore Renminbi Bond Market - In June, the offshore Renminbi bond market issued 100 bonds, an increase of 12 bonds from the previous month, with a total issuance amount of 779.71 billion, reflecting a 124.8% increase [5] Group 3: Offshore Renminbi Currency Market - As of the end of June, the CNH HIBOR rates for overnight, 7-day, 3-month, and 1-year were 1.9454%, 1.8341%, 1.9045%, and 1.9882% respectively, showing a mixed trend with overnight rates decreasing by 10 basis points while the others increased [6] - The average interest rate spread between offshore and onshore borrowing rates increased for overnight, 7-day, and 3-month terms, while the 1-year term remained unchanged [6] Group 4: Cross-Border Trade and Deposits - In May 2025, offshore Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong decreased by 5.4% to 9756.08 billion, while Taiwan saw a 4.2% increase to 1174.34 billion [2] - Cross-border trade settlement in Hong Kong amounted to 11235.7 billion, a decrease of 17.5% from the previous month [2] Group 5: Offshore Derivatives Market - In June, the 1-year CNH swap points rose by 99 basis points to -1746 basis points, while CNY swap points increased by 194 basis points to -1866 basis points [4] - The trading volume for USD/CNH futures contracts on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased by 14.68% to 2.527 million contracts, while the open interest decreased by 14.68% to 33,600 contracts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins is being driven by new technologies such as blockchain and distributed ledgers, presenting both opportunities and regulatory challenges for financial systems [1] Group 1: Offshore and Onshore RMB Business - Offshore RMB business is primarily conducted in markets outside of China, with Hong Kong as a central hub, while onshore RMB business reflects a dual characteristic of capital flow under specific conditions [1] - There is a growing consensus on the need to pilot offshore RMB stablecoins in Hong Kong before exploring domestic markets, particularly in free trade zones [1] Group 2: Development Models for RMB Stablecoins - A proposed model for domestic offshore RMB stablecoins (CNY Coin, CNYC) involves establishing a stablecoin issuance institution in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, leveraging the experience of digital RMB operators [3] - Another model suggests that digital RMB operators could directly mint and operate RMB stablecoins in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, ensuring compliance during the issuance process [4] Group 3: Requirements for RMB Stablecoins - RMB stablecoins must have sufficient asset reserves, including a proportion of digital RMB, to align with central bank digital currency (CBDC) reforms [5] - Issuers of RMB stablecoins should establish robust compliance mechanisms, including risk identification and asset segregation, while expanding application scenarios [5] Group 4: Offshore RMB Stablecoins - For offshore RMB stablecoins (CNH Coin, CNHC), a collaborative issuance model involving both domestic and foreign institutions in Hong Kong is proposed, adhering to local regulations [6] - The CNHC aims to enhance Hong Kong's role in the internationalization of the RMB and facilitate compliance in blockchain financial activities [7] Group 5: Regulatory Cooperation and Future Directions - Continuous cooperation between regulatory bodies and RMB stablecoin issuers is essential to monitor and prevent illegal activities within the blockchain ecosystem [7] - The exploration of RMB stablecoins should be cautious and gradual, with an emphasis on developing relevant legal frameworks to strengthen China's position in the global stablecoin landscape [7]

Group 1 - The ongoing battle for global financial order revolves around the dominance of the US dollar, particularly concerning the $37 trillion US national debt, which poses significant risks to the global financial system [1] - President Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate the burden of national debt, but Fed Chairman Powell remains resistant to such measures to maintain the Fed's independence [1][3] - In April, there was a notable sell-off of US Treasuries, with global central banks selling $30.1 billion and private investors offloading $20.5 billion, indicating a significant loss of confidence in US debt [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration is exploring a new regulatory framework for stablecoins, aiming to anchor them 100% to dollar assets and invest reserves in short-term US Treasuries, which could create new demand for US debt [4] - However, this strategy carries risks, as a loss of trust in stablecoins could lead to severe financial repercussions, potentially worse than the 2022 TerraUSD collapse [4] - China is responding with its own digital currency initiatives, including the digital yuan and stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong, which are designed to enhance cross-border payment efficiency [5][6] Group 3 - The efficiency of Hong Kong's stablecoin payments is significantly higher than traditional SWIFT payments, with transaction times reduced to seconds and costs nearly eliminated, indicating a shift in financial infrastructure [6] - The competition between the US and China in the digital currency space will ultimately depend on who can offer more equitable and efficient payment solutions, with China currently positioned as a leader in this area [6]

Group 1 - The onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) closed at 7.1650 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 14 points compared to the previous night session [1] - The trading volume for the yuan was reported at 44.223 billion USD [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Domestic consumption in China is showing signs of improvement, particularly driven by extended sales periods and trade-in programs during shopping festivals [5][10] - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with expectations for Brent crude to stabilize around USD65 per barrel by Q4 2025 if de-escalation occurs [2][4] - The impact of oil price shocks is expected to have a mixed effect on different sectors, with a potential drag on real GDP growth and increases in CPI and PPI [4] Summary by Sections Oil Market - Approximately 18% of China's energy consumption is derived from crude oil, with about 70% of this being imported [3] - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for China's oil imports, accounting for over 40% of its crude oil shipments [3] - A 10% increase in Brent crude oil prices could reduce real GDP growth by approximately 0.1 percentage points while increasing headline CPI and PPI by around 0.3 and 1.3 percentage points respectively over a year [4] Consumption Trends - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 saw a 15% year-on-year growth in gross merchandise value (GMV), a significant recovery from a 7% decline in 2024 [5] - Trade-in programs contributed approximately RMB380 billion in sales, representing 9% of monthly retail sales in May [5][10] - Service consumption is expected to grow, with events like the Jiangsu Urban Football League driving increased spending in culture and tourism [11] Fiscal Policy and Support - Fiscal spending has focused on improving livelihoods, with social security and education spending rising by 9.2% and 6.7% year-on-year respectively in the first five months of 2025 [13] - The government plans to allocate additional subsidies for trade-in programs, with a total of RMB138 billion earmarked for localities in the coming months [10] - The Lujiazui Forum highlighted China's commitment to financial reforms, including RMB internationalization and technological innovation [15] Real Estate and Land Sales - The property sector remains weak, with property investment down 12% year-on-year in May, affecting land sales revenue which decreased by 11.9% in the first five months [14][47] - New home sales in Tier-1 cities have also seen a year-on-year decline, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market [42][52] Economic Activity Indicators - Various economic indicators such as the operating rates in the steel and chemical sectors have shown stability, while coal consumption in major provinces has increased seasonally [16][25][26] - National box office revenues rose by 12%, reflecting a recovery in entertainment consumption [32]

25 June 2025 | 5:01PM EDT What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: Middle East risks, US soft data signals, CNY appreciation This week: Transcript Middle East reprieve, but risks remain Beyond the energy impacts, renewed escalation could also activate Dollar safe-haven flows, as initially occurred in response to the recent developments, though we ultimately expect the Dollar to continue weakening against a broad range of currencies as investors reassess US assets' relative return prospects. As such, the Dollar ...

USD/CNY fix model Foreign Exchange - Asia ex-Japan Projection: 7.1799 Model projection: 7.1799 versus 7.1789 previous (10 pips higher; 3 pips lower from the previous official spot close). Model projection with counter-cyclical factor: 7.1746 (43 pips lower from previous fix). Research Analysts Asia FX Strategy Craig Chan - NSL craig.chan@nomura.com Wee Choon Teo - NSL weechoon.teo@nomura.com Vicky Chen - NSL vicky.chen1@nomura.com Manthan Shingala - NSL manthan.shingala1@nomura.com Fig. 1: Top 4 weighted ov ...