Core Insights - Apple's fall product launch event is scheduled for September 10 at 1 AM Beijing time, expected to unveil the iPhone 17 series, including the highly anticipated ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air [1][3] - The event will also showcase the Apple Watch Series 11 and Ultra 3, aiming to invigorate the smartwatch market [1] - Additional products expected include the new AirPods Pro 3, TechWoven iPhone cases, and new Apple Watch bands in various styles and colors to cater to diverse consumer preferences [1] Product Release Timeline - Following the event, developers and public testers will receive candidate versions of iOS 26, indicating that the new system's stability and features are nearing finalization [3] - For consumers interested in purchasing the new iPhones, September 12 marks the start of pre-orders for the iPhone 17 Air and iPhone 17 Pro, with carriers offering trade-in promotions for better pricing [3] - The official market launch for the iPhone 17 Air and iPhone 17 Pro is set for September 19, with pre-ordered devices being delivered to customers, and iOS 26.0.1 is anticipated to be released by the end of September [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that Apple may implement a "moderate price increase" for the first time in seven years by eliminating the 128GB entry-level configuration for the Pro model and introducing a higher-priced ultra-thin model, which could lead to a 5% increase in the average selling price (ASP) of iPhones, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 1% [1][3][5]. Pricing Strategy - The anticipated pricing strategy focuses on two main adjustments: the removal of the 128GB entry-level storage option for the iPhone 17 Pro, raising its starting price to $1,099 from $999, and the introduction of the new ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air starting at $999 for the 256GB model, which is $100 higher than the iPhone 16 Plus [3][5]. - The pricing expectations for various iPhone 17 models indicate that the iPhone 17 Air will have a starting price of $999 for 256GB, while the iPhone 17 Pro will start at $1,099 for 256GB, reflecting a strategic shift in storage configurations to encourage higher-priced model purchases [4][10]. Revenue and Profit Potential - The price increase is primarily aimed at offsetting cost pressures from import tariffs and rising component prices, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a 5% increase in iPhone ASP to $939 by fiscal year 2026, compared to a market expectation of only 1% growth to $910 [5][11]. - The report suggests that the current market consensus on iPhone sales and price growth is relatively subdued, which could turn the upcoming product launch into a positive catalyst for Apple's stock performance [5][13]. Sales Volume Expectations - Despite the anticipated price increases, both Morgan Stanley and the market maintain a conservative outlook on iPhone 17 sales, projecting flat shipment volumes of approximately 236 million units for fiscal year 2026 [11]. - However, there is potential for upward revision in sales forecasts, as a survey indicated that 51% of U.S. iPhone users are likely to upgrade within the next 12 months, marking a historical high [11]. Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Historically, Apple's product launches have led to "sell the news" scenarios, where stock prices decline post-announcement due to overly optimistic pre-event pricing [13]. - This year, however, the market's low expectations for iPhone revenue growth (4% for fiscal year 2026) compared to the historical average (9% from 2011-2020) suggests that a successful pricing strategy could lead to positive stock performance and potentially break the trend of post-launch declines [13].

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