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哔哩哔哩- 买入评级 - 短期游戏前景或导致股价波动
2025-08-26 13:23
Summary of Bilibili Inc (BILI US) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bilibili Inc (BILI US) - **Industry**: Internet Software & Services - **Market Cap**: USD 10.553 billion - **Target Price**: USD 27.00 (previously USD 25.50) [5][10] Key Financial Highlights - **2Q25 Revenue**: RMB 7.338 billion, up 20% year-over-year (y-o-y) [38][39] - **Mobile Game Revenue**: RMB 1.612 billion, up 60% y-o-y [39] - **Non-Game Revenue**: RMB 5.725 billion, up 12% y-o-y [39] - **Advertising Revenue**: RMB 2.449 billion, up 20% y-o-y, beating estimates [39] - **Gross Margin**: 36.5%, up 6.5 percentage points y-o-y [39] - **Non-GAAP Operating Profit**: RMB 573 million, with a margin of 7.8% [39] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Positive at RMB 2.0 billion, up 14% y-o-y [38] User Engagement Metrics - **Monthly Active Users (MAU)**: 363 million, up 8% y-o-y [39] - **Daily Active Users (DAU)**: 109 million, up 7% y-o-y [39] - **Average Daily Time Spent per User**: 105 minutes, up 6% y-o-y [39] Advertising Outlook - **Ad Growth Drivers**: - Increased traffic due to user engagement and time spent [2] - Improved ad infrastructure through AI adoption [2] - eCPM increased by 10% y-o-y, driven by a 20% y-o-y growth in the number of advertisers [2] - **Ad Inventory**: Expected to increase, supporting strong ad growth into 2H25 [2] Game Segment Insights - **Game Growth Outlook**: Slower growth anticipated in 2H25 due to delays in the overseas launch of "Sanmou" [1][2] - **Sanmou Performance**: Season 9 performance tracked in line with expectations, not exceeding them [1] Shareholder Value Initiatives - **Share Repurchase Program**: Bilibili has repurchased USD 116 million worth of shares out of a USD 200 million program by the end of 2Q25 [1] - **Convertible Senior Notes**: Completed offering of USD 690 million due in 2030 with a 0.625% interest rate [38] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Discounted cash flow with a target price increase to USD 27.00 [43] - **Risks**: - Weaker gross billing for key games like Sanmou [43] - Slower-than-expected ad growth [43] - Rising competition and regulatory challenges [43] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: Maintain Buy rating based on improved ad outlook despite potential near-term challenges in game launches [1][10]