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美股史上最快暴跌之一!关税风暴下,如何抓住波动机遇?
RockFlow Universe· 2025-03-27 10:33
① 近期美股遭遇迅猛回调,此次跨越 16 个交易日的调整是美股历史上最快的下跌行情之一 (过去 75 年只发生过 6 次)。此轮暴跌源于特朗普关税政策的不确定性、疲软经济数据及市场 恐慌情绪升温。 ② 历史经验显示,极端下跌行情多由政策冲击(如关税)或系统性风险(如金融危机)触发, 但恐慌后往往孕育反弹机遇。2025 的特朗普关税,与 2018 年贸易战引发的市场震荡高度相 似。 ③ RockFlow 投研团队认为,投资者可以采取多空策略(反向ETF)、波动率对冲(VIX相关工 具)及"小熊保险"等组合拳,同时利用"抄底宝"捕捉超跌优质资产。投资本质上是一种乐观的 行为。我们仍然保持长期乐观。 RockFlow 本文共3517字, 阅读需约13分钟 划重点 过去一个月,美股迎来迅猛回调,市值蒸发逾 4 万亿美元,继 2024 年 11 月特朗普当选总统后美股取得的涨幅全部化为乌有,投资者对令人担忧的 市场迹象保持警惕。 本篇文章,RockFlow 投研团队将带你深入探究特朗普上任以来美股为何经历如此剧烈的下跌,以及参考美股的总统行情表现,当下是否是一个抄 底的好时机。最后,我们将为你分享四种有效的波动市场应对 ...
美股史上最快暴跌之一!关税风暴下,如何抓住波动机遇?
RockFlow Universe· 2025-03-27 10:33
Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid decline in the US stock market, characterized as one of the fastest in history, is primarily driven by uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, weak economic data, and heightened market panic. The market has lost over $4 trillion in value, erasing gains made since Trump's election in November 2024 [2][3][24]. Group 1: Causes of the Market Decline - The S&P 500 index officially dropped over 10% as of March 13, marking a significant adjustment within just 16 trading days, one of the fastest declines recorded [7][24]. - Historical patterns indicate that extreme downturns are often triggered by policy shocks or systemic risks, with the current situation resembling the market turbulence seen during the 2018 trade war [24]. - Key factors contributing to the current market turmoil include: 1. Trump's frequent references to tariff policies, which have increased corporate costs and heightened trade uncertainties, threatening economic growth [8][9]. 2. Weak economic indicators since February, showing a slowdown in growth, rising inflation pressures, and declining consumer confidence [8][9]. 3. Deteriorating market sentiment, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index dropping to 21, indicating extreme fear among investors [9]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - Since 1950, there have been 40 instances where the S&P 500 index has corrected by more than 10%, with only six of these occurring within 20 days, highlighting the severity of the current situation [7][8]. - The article draws parallels between the current market conditions and previous downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, which were also marked by significant policy and economic uncertainties [8][9]. Group 3: Strategies for Navigating Market Volatility - The RockFlow research team suggests several strategies for investors to navigate the current volatility: 1. Implementing long-short strategies using inverse ETFs to capitalize on market reversals [17]. 2. Utilizing volatility strategies to take advantage of increased market fluctuations, particularly through VIX-related instruments [19]. 3. Employing "small bear insurance" by purchasing put options to hedge against short-term declines while maintaining long-term positions [21][23]. 4. Utilizing "bottom-fishing" tools to identify and invest in undervalued assets during market downturns [24].