热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 摘要 一、近期油轮运价表现：VLCC船运费市场强劲上涨：期租情绪高于即期；中东线强于美湾/西非线；大 小船TCE价差创近5年新高。春节期间油轮板块引发了航运业界高度关注，其运费市场再度上演了类似 2021/2024年春节跳涨行情。截止2月23日，波交所统计的标杆航线VLCCTD3C中东-中国航线即期运费 录得17.6万美元/天，环比春节前2月13日12.2万美元/天跳涨44%，创下2020年4月24日以来的历史新高。 二、基本面上涨背后驱动： ①中东出货季节性走得更强，委内利好消耗运力，中印累计进口增加 截止2月22日四周移动平均，OPEC海运原油出口量创近几年新高，对VLCC船形成运需支撑。其中发往 印度的增量较为明显至276万桶/天，同比231万桶/天上涨19%。同时作为VLCC船的另外主流阵地拉美 地区和西非地区出口量也呈现高位，在主流发货地出口积极下，对应进口地中国和印度进口也有所反 映。值得一提的是，委内瑞拉原油在美国接手后海运出口增加较为明显，随着委内出口量的合法释放 （也可从在途库存增加得到印证），也即为VLC ...

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy's performance for the first three quarters of 2025 shows a decline in revenue and net profit, but the third quarter indicates signs of recovery due to non-recurring gains from asset sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 17.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.723 billion yuan, down 21.22%; and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.484 billion yuan, down 25.85% [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 5.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 853 million yuan, an increase of 4.37%; and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 710 million yuan, down 3.00% [1]. Segment Performance - LNG transportation reported a net profit of 250 million yuan, down 11.03% year-on-year but up 13.64% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Domestic oil tanker gross profit was 359 million yuan, down 15.33% year-on-year but up 9.12% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - International oil tanker gross profit was 495 million yuan, down 19.12% year-on-year and down 34.18% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - LPG and chemical transportation combined gross profit was 21 million yuan [2]. Operational Developments - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary has leased six VLCCs, enhancing its capacity with a mix of fixed and variable rental agreements [3]. - The fixed rental for three vessels is approximately 19,090 USD/day, while the other three have a base rental of 19,090 USD/day with profit-sharing above a certain rate [3]. - Profitability estimates indicate that for VLCC TD3C-TCE rates of 40,000 to 100,000 USD/day, net profit per vessel could range from 0.9 to 5.4 million USD/day [3]. Market Outlook - Winter 2025 is expected to see strong and sustained freight rates, with early seasonal demand pushing rates close to 100,000 USD/day [4]. - The average freight rate for September-October has surpassed five-year records, with expectations for further increases in November [4]. - The long-term outlook for 2026-2027 is optimistic, with upward adjustments to profit forecasts based on strengthening fundamentals [4]. Profit Forecasts - The company maintains its 2025 net profit forecast at 4.462 billion yuan, while increasing the 2026-2027 forecasts to 6.075 billion and 7.230 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The company's reset cost is approximately 55 billion yuan, with a P/NAV ratio of 1.34 times; future vessel price increases could raise reset costs significantly [4].