The S&P 500 has traded sideways in 2026, but several international stock markets have already notched double-digit gains.Many experts believe President Trump's tariffs will hurt the U.S. economy. Several recent studies say U.S. businesses and consumers have borne most of the costs, and there is no reason to think that will change. While the Supreme Court recently struck down some of the duties, Trump has replaced them with a 10% global tariff.Uncertainty about the economic impact has motivated some investor ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley analysts predict the S&P 500 will return 6.3% annually over the next seven years, significantly lower than the 15% annual return of the past seven years due to high starting valuations [1][2] - Emerging-market equities are expected to return 8.9% annually, while Asia-Pacific equities are projected to return 7.9% annually over the same period, indicating a more favorable outlook compared to U.S. stocks [3] Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF tracks 6,000 companies in emerging markets, with a focus on China, Taiwan, and India, and is heavily weighted in technology, financials, and consumer discretionary sectors [5] - The fund has an expense ratio of 0.07%, significantly lower than the average of 1.2% for similar funds, making it an attractive option for investors [6] - The top five holdings in the ETF include Taiwan Semiconductor (10.3%), Tencent Holdings (4.5%), Alibaba Group (3.2%), HDFC Bank (1.1%), and Reliance Industries (1.1%) [7] Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF measures the performance of 2,300 companies in Asia-Pacific, particularly Japan, Australia, and South Korea, with a focus on financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors [8] - This fund also has an expense ratio of 0.07%, lower than the average of 0.68% for similar funds, making it a competitive choice for investors [9] - The top five holdings include Samsung Electronics (3.2%), Toyota Motor (2.1%), SK Hynix (1.9%), Sony Group (1.7%), and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (1.7%) [12] Historical Performance Comparison - Over the past seven years, the S&P 500 returned 198%, while the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF only returned 71%, highlighting the underperformance of emerging markets relative to U.S. stocks [5] - Similarly, the Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF returned 77% over the same period, again underperforming the S&P 500 [8]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has updated its 10-year forecast for global equities, projecting the S&P 500 to return 6.5% annually, which is below the global average of 7.7% annually [1][2] - Asian and emerging-market stocks are expected to outperform, with projected annual returns of 10.3% and 10.9% respectively in local currency, and 12.6% and 12.8% when measured in U.S. dollars [2] Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF tracks 2,300 companies in Asia, primarily in Japan, Australia, and Korea, with significant exposure to financial, industrial, and consumer discretionary sectors [4] - Over the past decade, the S&P 500 returned 288%, while the Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF returned only 105% [4][5] - The ETF has a low expense ratio of 0.07%, making it a cost-effective option for gaining exposure to Asian equities [5] Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF measures around 6,000 companies in emerging markets, focusing on China, Taiwan, and India, with heavy investments in technology, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors [8] - Similar to the Pacific ETF, the S&P 500 outperformed the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF over the last decade, achieving a total return of 288% compared to the ETF's 106% [8][9] - This ETF also has a modest expense ratio of 0.07%, providing an affordable way to invest in emerging markets [9] Investment Strategy Considerations - Despite the potential for Asian and emerging-market stocks to outperform, there is a strong recommendation to maintain a larger portion of investment in U.S. stocks, particularly the S&P 500 index fund, due to its historical performance [10][12] - Past forecasts by Goldman Sachs have been overly conservative, as seen in their 2015 prediction for the S&P 500, which underestimated actual returns [11][12]