Core Insights - Morgan Stanley analysts predict the S&P 500 will return 6.3% annually over the next seven years, significantly lower than the 15% annual return of the past seven years due to high starting valuations [1][2] - Emerging-market equities are expected to return 8.9% annually, while Asia-Pacific equities are projected to return 7.9% annually over the same period, indicating a more favorable outlook compared to U.S. stocks [3] Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF tracks 6,000 companies in emerging markets, with a focus on China, Taiwan, and India, and is heavily weighted in technology, financials, and consumer discretionary sectors [5] - The fund has an expense ratio of 0.07%, significantly lower than the average of 1.2% for similar funds, making it an attractive option for investors [6] - The top five holdings in the ETF include Taiwan Semiconductor (10.3%), Tencent Holdings (4.5%), Alibaba Group (3.2%), HDFC Bank (1.1%), and Reliance Industries (1.1%) [7] Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF measures the performance of 2,300 companies in Asia-Pacific, particularly Japan, Australia, and South Korea, with a focus on financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors [8] - This fund also has an expense ratio of 0.07%, lower than the average of 0.68% for similar funds, making it a competitive choice for investors [9] - The top five holdings include Samsung Electronics (3.2%), Toyota Motor (2.1%), SK Hynix (1.9%), Sony Group (1.7%), and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (1.7%) [12] Historical Performance Comparison - Over the past seven years, the S&P 500 returned 198%, while the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF only returned 71%, highlighting the underperformance of emerging markets relative to U.S. stocks [5] - Similarly, the Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF returned 77% over the same period, again underperforming the S&P 500 [8]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has updated its 10-year forecast for global equities, projecting the S&P 500 to return 6.5% annually, which is below the global average of 7.7% annually [1][2] - Asian and emerging-market stocks are expected to outperform, with projected annual returns of 10.3% and 10.9% respectively in local currency, and 12.6% and 12.8% when measured in U.S. dollars [2] Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF tracks 2,300 companies in Asia, primarily in Japan, Australia, and Korea, with significant exposure to financial, industrial, and consumer discretionary sectors [4] - Over the past decade, the S&P 500 returned 288%, while the Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF returned only 105% [4][5] - The ETF has a low expense ratio of 0.07%, making it a cost-effective option for gaining exposure to Asian equities [5] Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF measures around 6,000 companies in emerging markets, focusing on China, Taiwan, and India, with heavy investments in technology, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors [8] - Similar to the Pacific ETF, the S&P 500 outperformed the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF over the last decade, achieving a total return of 288% compared to the ETF's 106% [8][9] - This ETF also has a modest expense ratio of 0.07%, providing an affordable way to invest in emerging markets [9] Investment Strategy Considerations - Despite the potential for Asian and emerging-market stocks to outperform, there is a strong recommendation to maintain a larger portion of investment in U.S. stocks, particularly the S&P 500 index fund, due to its historical performance [10][12] - Past forecasts by Goldman Sachs have been overly conservative, as seen in their 2015 prediction for the S&P 500, which underestimated actual returns [11][12]