Core Insights - The holiday shopping season began positively despite weak consumer sentiment, with several retail stocks experiencing gains [1] - U.S. retail spending excluding autos rose 4.1% year-over-year on Black Friday, an increase from 3.4% in 2024 [1] - Online shopping sales reached a record high of $11.8 billion, up from $10.8 billion in 2024, although the growth rate decreased to 10.4% from 14.6% [1] Retail Stock Performance - Retail stocks such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Urban Outfitters, and Bath & Body Works saw increases of 5% and 10% respectively [1] - The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) gained over 1% on Monday, with a five-day gain exceeding 7% [1] - Amazon, Home Depot, TJX Companies, and Nike also showed positive performance in midday trading [1] Consumer Trends - Consumers are expected to focus on essentials and seek discounts due to inflation, benefiting retailers like Walmart and Costco [1] - Costco initiated holiday promotions early, which helped attract consumers [1] - The National Retail Federation forecasts a 3.7% to 4.2% increase in holiday sales for 2025, with total sales projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time [1] Company-Specific Insights - Amazon is highlighted as Bank of America's top e-commerce pick, benefiting from AI integration and competitive pricing [1] - TJX Companies is expected to gain market share this holiday season as consumers prioritize value [1] - Costco's performance will be assessed with its November sales report and first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Adobe Analytics reported a strong start to the holiday shopping season, with significant online spending on high-priced home goods and electronics during Thanksgiving, particularly a 740% increase in online sales of video game consoles compared to the average in October [1] - Other large item categories also saw explosive growth, including refrigerators and freezers up 720%, fitness equipment and washers/dryers up 640%, headphones and audio equipment up 630%, televisions up 580%, home security products up 570%, power tools up 470%, smartwatches up 450%, smart home devices up 400%, and vacuum cleaners also up 400% [1] - If these strong trends continue into "Cyber Monday," retailers' holiday season performance may exceed expectations [1] Group 2 - Best-selling toys during Thanksgiving included Fisher-Price Little People, LEGO sets, Mini Brand Capsules, Hot Wheels, Squishmallows, Paw Patrol toys, Ms. Rachel educational toys, Play-Doh sets, Pokémon cards, and Disney princess toys and apparel [2] - Popular gaming consoles included Nintendo Switch 2, Xbox Series X, PlayStation 5, and PS Portal, with top games being "Donkey Kong Bananza," "Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree," "Madden NFL 26," "NBA 2K26," and "MLB: The Show 25" [2] - Adobe Analytics noted that this year's discount levels are generally greater than last year, which may put some profit pressure on retailers, although many are leveraging "agent-based AI" to enhance conversion rates, potentially supporting profit performance [2] Group 3 - Online spending by American consumers on Thanksgiving reached a record $6.4 billion, a 5.3% year-over-year increase, slightly above Adobe Analytics' previous estimate of 4.9% growth [3] - Adobe Analytics forecasts that online sales on "Black Friday" will reach $11.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 8.3%, while "Cyber Monday" is expected to record $14.2 billion in sales, up 6.3% [3] - Due to consumers' willingness to secure discounts earlier, the growth rate for "Black Friday" is expected to surpass that of "Cyber Monday" [3]