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金山办公:WPS 365带动B端新成长,AI带动C端付费率提升-20250321
申万宏源· 2025-03-21 14:01
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 5.121 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.645 billion yuan, up 24.8% year-on-year [7] - The WPS 365 product is driving new growth in the B-end market, with its revenue reaching 440 million yuan, a significant increase of 149% year-on-year [7] - The C-end market shows promising growth with nearly 20 million monthly active users and a continuous increase in the payment rate, leading to a domestic personal subscription revenue of 3.1 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the steady recovery of the "Xin Chuang" (信创) initiative, with institutional authorization business revenue of 710 million yuan, up 8% year-on-year [7] - The overseas business is progressing well, with personal business revenue of 180 million yuan and 1.74 million paid personal users, indicating a new growth space for the company [7] - The total contract liabilities increased by over 20%, reaching 3.18 billion yuan, indicating optimistic growth in subscription business [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 6.036 billion, 7.210 billion, and 8.699 billion yuan respectively, with net profit forecasts of 1.919 billion, 2.322 billion, and 2.821 billion yuan [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 4.556 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.699 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.7% [6][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.318 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.821 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][9] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 85.4% in 2025 and increasing to 86.2% by 2027 [6]
金山办公(688111):WPS365强势增长,AI战略成果初显
HTSC· 2025-03-20 10:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 404.54 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 5.121 billion in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.645 billion, up 24.84% year-over-year. The Q4 revenue was RMB 1.494 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 16.21% and a net profit of RMB 605 million, reflecting a 42.58% increase year-over-year. The performance exceeded expectations due to strong growth in WPS personal and WPS 365 businesses [1][2]. - The strong growth in WPS personal and WPS 365 businesses is attributed to the effective implementation of the AI strategy, with significant product launches aimed at different customer segments [2][3]. - The company has a solid customer base, with over 632 million monthly active devices globally, including 291 million for the PC version and 341 million for the mobile version. The number of annual paid personal users in China reached 41.7 million, a 17.49% increase year-over-year [3]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment, particularly in AI product development, which is expected to accelerate product upgrades and commercialization in 2025 [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 62.39 billion, RMB 77.05 billion, and RMB 96.78 billion, respectively, with a target price based on a 30x PS ratio for 2025 [5][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 5.121 billion and a net profit of RMB 1.645 billion, with significant growth in Q4 [1][2]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 includes RMB 3.283 billion from WPS personal business, RMB 437 million from WPS 365 business, RMB 1.268 billion from WPS software business, and RMB 132 million from other businesses [2]. User Engagement - The company has over 632 million monthly active devices, with a notable increase in both PC and mobile users. The monthly active users of WPS AI reached 19.68 million [3]. R&D and AI Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities, with increased R&D spending expected to drive product innovation and market penetration [4]. Valuation and Projections - The target price of RMB 404.54 reflects a 30x PS ratio for 2025, indicating confidence in the company's growth trajectory and market position [5][9].