Brent/WTI to Bottom in 2026Q4 at $60/56 as Risk Premium Fades and Fair Value Price Declines on Higher OECD Stocks February 2026 Oil Update Daan Struyven Managing Director Co-Head of Commodities Research; Head of Oil Research Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC +1 212-357-4172 daan.struyven@gs.com Yulia Grigsby Vice President Senior Energy Strategist Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC +1 646-446-3905 yulia.grigsby@gs.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC c ...

Key Takeaways US-Iran nuclear talks extended, keeping oil prices volatile and markets on edge.USO tracks daily crude moves, gaining 6% in a year amid headline-driven swings. ETFs like OIH show varied returns as energy equities react to shifting risk premiums.The latest round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks concluded yesterday, leaving oil markets in a state of cautious stability after a period of intense pressure. During the Geneva discussions, Brent and WTI swung more than a dollar intraday as headlines flippe ...

In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week. We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy. Traders Go Full Bull as Brent Defies Oversupply Worries - Defying expectations for a year of enormous oversupply, oil prices have had their strongest start to ...

On February 19, President Trump put Iran on a 10-15 day ultimatum with the Geneva negotiations on Thursday marking the likely deadline after which military action could take place if no agreement is reached. The White House has stated that it is “very wise” for Iran to reach an agreement, while Vice President Vance has already accused Iran of not addressing the core issues raised by the U.S., indicating that there are still major differences between the two countries as they enter Thursday’s meeting – leavi ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) on Thursday closed up +1.24 (+1.90%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) closed up +0.0386 (+1.96%). Crude oil and gasoline prices added to Wednesday’s sharp rally on Thursday, with crude climbing to a 6.5-month high and gasoline posting a 1-week high. More News from Barchart Mounting geopolitical risks in the Middle East are pushing crude prices sharply higher.   On Thursday, the United Nations nuclear watchdog said that the US military buildup in the Middle East means Iran’s w ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Donald Trump is considering military action against Iran, with a decision expected within the next 10 days, which has implications for oil prices and geopolitical stability [1][2] Oil Market Impact - U.S. crude oil prices increased by $1.58, or 2.42%, reaching $66.77 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent rose by $1.56, or 2.22%, to $71.91 [1] - Oil prices have been rising due to fears of an imminent U.S. attack on Iran, with WTI up 6% this week and 16% year-to-date [2]

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing downward pressure, reaching 1.5-week lows due to easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, as well as speculation regarding potential increases in OPEC+ production levels [1][2][3]. Geopolitical Factors - The de-escalation of US-Iran tensions has reduced the likelihood of military actions that could disrupt oil supplies, as President Trump indicated that negotiations over a nuclear deal could last for an extended period [2]. - The US has discussed the possibility of seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil, and there are considerations to send additional military resources to the Middle East in case nuclear talks fail, which could impact Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) [5]. OPEC+ Production Outlook - Some OPEC+ members believe there is room to increase oil production in April, as concerns about a global supply glut are perceived to be exaggerated. An online meeting is scheduled for March 1 to discuss the situation [3]. Supply Dynamics - There is a significant increase in crude supplies in floating storage, with approximately 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude currently stored on tankers, which is over 50% higher than the previous year due to sanctions and blockades [4]. - Venezuelan crude exports have risen to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December, contributing to the increase in global oil supplies and exerting further bearish pressure on prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments in complex instruments like cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The accuracy and reliability of the information are not guaranteed, and users are cautioned against relying solely on the content provided [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about cryptocurrencies, CFDs, and other financial instruments, highlighting their complexity and associated high risks [1]. - Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and fully understand the workings and risks of any financial instruments before investing [1].

Group 1 - Crude oil and gasoline prices are under pressure due to concerns over energy demand following stagnant US retail sales in December, which were unchanged month-over-month, contrary to the expected increase of +0.4% [1][2] - The stagnation in retail sales may lead to a downward revision in Q4 GDP, further negatively impacting energy demand and crude prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are adding a risk premium to crude prices, with fears of military action potentially disrupting key shipping lanes and affecting Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day [3] Group 2 - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising to 800,000 barrels per day in January from 498,000 barrels per day in December, is contributing to a boost in global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices [4] - Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly the unresolved territorial disputes between Russia and Ukraine, are likely to maintain restrictions on Russian crude, which supports oil prices [5]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a significant decline due to a stronger dollar and easing US-Iran tensions, alongside disappointing US labor market data [1][2][3] Price Movements - March WTI crude oil closed down by $1.85 (-2.84%) and March RBOB gasoline fell by $0.0386 (-1.96%) [1] - Crude prices had previously spiked after reports of potential military action against Iran, which could disrupt oil supplies [2][4] Geopolitical Factors - Easing tensions between the US and Iran were highlighted by the announcement of nuclear talks scheduled for Friday, which contributed to the drop in crude prices [2] - The potential for military strikes against Iran remains a concern, as it could impact key shipping lanes and Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day [2][4] Labor Market Data - Recent US labor market data showed a significant increase in job cuts, rising by 117.8% year-over-year to 108,435, marking the highest level for January since 2009 [3] - Initial unemployment claims rose by 22,000 to an 8-week high of 231,000, while job openings unexpectedly fell to a 5.25-year low of 6.542 million [3] Trade Relations - Support for crude prices was noted as President Trump announced plans to roll back tariffs on India in exchange for India ceasing purchases of Russian oil, with Russian crude deliveries to India dropping to 1.2 million barrels per day in December, the lowest in over three years [5]