March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed down -0.04 (-0.27%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -0.30 (-0.07%). Sugar prices fell back from 3.5-week highs on Wednesday and closed lower after a plunge in crude oil prices sparked long liquidation in sugar futures.  WTI crude oil prices (CLZ25) tumbled more than -2% on Wednesday, which undercut ethanol prices and may prompt the world's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production than ethanol, boosting su ...

Oil prices plummeted in early trading on Wednesday as traders reacted to another rise in U.S. oil inventories, and signals continue to mount that global supply is running ahead of demand. At the time of writing, WTI was trading at $58.91 per barrel, down 3.01% on the session... While Brent slipped to $63, down by roughly 2.91%. The drop came after prices had climbed in the previous session on the back of Trump announcing interviews for a new Fed chair, a statement that briefly lifted risk sentiment by ...

December WTI crude oil (CLZ25) today is down -0.04 (-0.07%), and December RBOB gasoline (RBZ25) closed down -0.0246 (-1.24%). Crude oil prices are under pressure today as a selloff in the S&P 500 to a 1-month low has sparked risk-off sentiment in asset markets.  Also, signs of weakness in the US labor market are negative for economic growth and energy demand, after ADP reported that US employees shed 2,500 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended November 1. More News from Barchart Oil prices ha ...

ab 14 November 2025 Oil prices might recover in 2026-28E, China demand dragged by gasoline/diesel Crude oil: UBS projects Brent crude oil price to average US$64/70/75/bbl in 2026-28, with expectations that the second tranche of OPEC+'s voluntary cuts of 1.65Mb/d may end in Dec 2026 and the effective production increase may be 40% of the headline numbers. Oil prices could improve from later part of 2026, in UBS view. Weak gasoline and diesel consumption might further weigh on China demand and we project 4.4% ...

Economic Impact - The US government shutdown is in its fourth week, affecting market sentiment and delaying key economic reports, including unemployment claims and the September payroll report [1] - Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [1] Trade Relations - Markets are focused on US-China trade talks, with President Trump threatening to increase tariffs on Chinese goods if no deal is reached by November 1 [2] Sanctions - The Trump administration has announced sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia's largest oil producers, due to insufficient commitment to peace in Ukraine, which may restrict their access to international financial systems [3] Company Performance - Molina Healthcare's stock has dropped over 20% after it cut its full-year adjusted EPS forecast from $19.00 to $14.00, significantly below the consensus of $18.65 [4][15] - International Business Machines (IBM) is down more than 3% after reporting a 14% increase in its Q3 hybrid cloud unit, which was below the expected 16% [4][19] - Tesla's stock is down more than 3% after reporting Q3 EPS of 50 cents, below the consensus of 54 cents [4][19] - Las Vegas Sands reported Q3 net revenue of $3.33 billion, exceeding the consensus of $3.04 billion, leading to a stock increase of over 12% [16] - Dow Inc. reported Q3 adjusted operating Ebitda of $868 million, surpassing the consensus of $759.7 million, resulting in an increase of over 9% in its stock [16] Market Trends - The S&P 500 Index is up 0.38%, with the Dow Jones up 0.12% and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.61% [7] - The Q3 earnings season shows rising corporate earnings expectations, with 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating forecasts, indicating a strong quarter [8] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to 5.9% year-over-year [8] Interest Rates - The markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [9] - The 10-year T-note yield is up 3.2 basis points to 3.982%, influenced by inflation concerns due to a 5% surge in WTI crude oil prices [10]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have seen a recent increase, but the overall outlook for the oil market remains moderately bearish due to concerns over oversupply and geopolitical tensions [4][9]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On October 22, 2025, WTI crude oil ETF United States Oil Fund LP (USO) rose by 3.5%, while Brent crude ETF United States Brent Oil Fund LP (BNO) increased by 3.1% [1]. - Despite the recent gains, the USO ETF has declined by 8.2% year-to-date, and the BNO ETF has lost approximately 6% in the same period [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The Trump administration has imposed additional sanctions on Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, due to Russia's lack of commitment to peace in Ukraine [2]. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that further actions may be taken to support efforts to end conflicts, while pressure is being applied on India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil [3]. Group 3: Demand and Economic Influences - China's economic challenges, including a real estate crisis and a shift towards greener energy, are expected to negatively impact global oil demand [5]. - Goldman Sachs has a conservative long-term price forecast, predicting Brent crude to decline to $52 per barrel by Q4 of 2026, despite current market tightness [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The oil market is expected to face continued global surplus, which may keep the outlook bleak [7]. - Factors such as stronger-than-anticipated consumption trends in Europe and slower adoption of electric vehicles in Western markets could provide some support for oil prices [8]. - Overall, the potential for oversupply may mitigate any positive impacts from geopolitical risks, leading to a moderately bearish outlook for the oil market [9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly crude oil and petroleum products, with insights into market dynamics and seasonal impacts on demand and supply [1][2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Crude Oil Fundamentals**: Despite softer fundamentals, OPEC+'s production return is impacting crude oil prices, with inventories building and Brent crude prices pressured towards $60/bbl [1][2]. 2. **OECD Inventories**: OECD commercial crude oil inventories are building, with a preliminary monthly stock increase of over 10 million barrels, contributing to downward pressure on Brent prices [2]. 3. **Dangote Refinery Issues**: Uncertainties surrounding Nigeria's Dangote refinery operations are affecting gasoline supply, with a significant reduction in gasoline output due to operational challenges [3][20]. 4. **Gasoil Crack Spreads**: Gasoil crack spreads are currently wide due to low stocks, but are expected to moderate in 2026 as refinery production strengthens and demand flattens [4][24]. 5. **Winter Demand Projections**: Potential for wider gasoil cracks this winter exists due to the possibility of a cold winter and geopolitical tensions, which could temporarily boost demand for heating fuels [5][25]. 6. **Kerosene Demand**: Demand for kerosene is expected to moderate, but a cold winter in East Asia could lead to price increases due to its use as a heating fuel [6][39]. 7. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Recent de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, may reduce the price premium on oil, impacting market dynamics [10][12]. 8. **Managed Money Positioning**: Managed money positioning in Brent and WTI is at its second lowest in the last decade, indicating potential for a price rebound if geopolitical tensions escalate or if winter demand spikes [16][18]. 9. **Price Forecasts**: The base case price forecast for Brent is $63/bbl in 4Q25 and $60/bbl in 1Q26, with a bear case suggesting lower averages of $55/bbl and $50/bbl respectively [17]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Refinery Margins**: Refining margins have been climbing throughout the year, indicating improved profitability for refiners [27][29]. 2. **Weather Analysis**: The report includes a weather analysis suggesting a milder winter in the US, colder conditions in East Asia, and normal temperatures in Europe, which could influence energy demand [7][51]. 3. **La Niña Impact**: NOAA forecasts a potential La Niña winter, which typically brings colder conditions to Northeast Asia and warmer, drier weather to the southern US [52][55]. 4. **Stockpiling Trends**: China's oil purchases have slowed, potentially allowing the market to front-run its purchases, which could eventually support oil prices again [12][38]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the oil industry.

Core Insights - Oil prices are declining due to concerns over oversupply and weak demand, despite some optimism from US-China trade talks [1][4] - The International Energy Agency predicts a potential crude oil surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day by 2026, driven by increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers [2] - The Brent futures curve has shifted to contango, indicating expectations of loose supply or weak demand in the near term [3] Supply Dynamics - The global supply-demand balance is shifting towards a surplus, with WTI down 0.52% at $57.22 and Brent down 0.54% at $60.61 [2] - Rising production from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers is contributing to the oversupply situation [2] Demand Factors - Tensions between the US and China are negatively impacting oil demand, with unresolved issues such as tariffs and technology access clouding China's economic outlook [4] - China's crude oil imports fell to approximately 11.5 million barrels per day in September, the lowest since January, indicating softness in demand [5] Market Outlook - The outlook for oil prices appears to be tilted to the downside unless there are significant improvements in demand or major supply disruptions [6] - Brent is testing the critical $60 mark, and a break below this level could lead to further declines [6]

Investment Rating - The report provides a comprehensive outlook on the global oil and gas industry, indicating a cautious but optimistic investment rating for major oil companies, reflecting the anticipated fluctuations in oil prices and demand dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $68.22 per barrel in 2025, with a gradual decline expected in subsequent years, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [3]. - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 0.9 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2025 and 1.1 Mb/d in 2026, driven primarily by non-OECD countries, particularly China and India [26][32]. - The global oil supply is expected to increase by 2.0 Mb/d in 2025 and 1.6 Mb/d in 2026, with significant contributions from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers [43][46]. Summary by Sections Global Oil Market Outlook - The report outlines a balanced view of the oil market, highlighting both supply and demand factors that will influence pricing and market stability [2]. UBS Oil Price Forecast - The forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil prices shows a downward trend from 2024 to 2026, with Brent expected to average $68.22 in 2025 and WTI at $64.84 [3]. Demand Analysis - Global oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.9 Mb/d in 2025, with significant growth in regions outside of OECD, particularly in Asia [23][26]. - The report notes that US gasoline demand is approximately 2% lower than the previous year, indicating a shift in consumption patterns [35]. Supply Analysis - Global oil supply is projected to grow significantly, with OPEC crude production expected to average 28.7 Mb/d in 2025, reflecting a recovery in output levels [43][49]. - The US is expected to lead supply growth, particularly from the Permian Basin, with a forecasted increase of 0.1 Mb/d in 2025 [81][87]. OPEC+ Dynamics - The report discusses OPEC+ compliance and production strategies, indicating a cautious approach to managing output levels in response to market conditions [54][59]. - OPEC's spare capacity is projected to remain around 4.4 Mb/d in 2026, suggesting limited room for additional production increases [65]. Long-term Outlook - The report anticipates a decrease in final investment decisions (FIDs) for new projects in 2025, which may impact future supply growth [104]. - Long-term oil price forecasts suggest a range of $70 to $80 per barrel by 2030, influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors [115].

Group 1 - Oil prices rose after the White House indicated a willingness to negotiate with China to alleviate trade tensions, with Brent crude advancing above $63 a barrel after a significant drop of 3.8% on Friday [1] - President Trump stated that the tariffs scheduled for November 1 would remain in place, but expressed optimism about relations with China, which could impact oil supply dynamics [2] - The imposition of fees by China on US-owned vessels has led to increased shipping rates and cancellations, reflecting the ongoing trade conflict and its implications for oil logistics [3] Group 2 - The outlook for oil remains uncertain as OPEC+ increases production, potentially leading to a supply glut later this year [4] - A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has eased concerns about Middle Eastern oil supply disruptions, as Hamas began releasing Israeli hostages [5]