stocks on the move as well as some calls. We're going to start with Zoom. We talked about it yesterday, Josh, with you heading into the print.They did post a stronger than expected earnings. They uh beat upbeat guide as well. Take a look at that.You made a nice uh you made a nice call on that yesterday. They also increased the buyback. What do you think now.>> I mean, you can't sell it. um they just delivered everything that people have been waiting for four years to see this company deliver this entire pos ...

Group 1 - Shares of Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) increased by approximately 7.6% this week due to multiple analyst upgrades driven by booming demand for AI infrastructure [1][3] - Bank of America upgraded Applied Materials to a buy with a price target of $250, citing strong growth in wafer fab equipment expected in 2026 due to DRAM capacity investments [3][4] - Stifel also rated Applied Materials as a buy, raising its price target to $215, highlighting DRAM investments and the company's diversified product portfolio as key positives [4] Group 2 - Cantor analysts named Applied Materials one of their "best ideas" among semiconductor equipment stocks, justifying a $250 price target based on strong DRAM demand and growing capital spending from TSMC [4] - The semiconductor memory chip industry, including DRAM and NAND, is cyclical and can experience significant downturns following periods of oversupply, which could impact Applied Materials [5][6] - Despite diversification providing some protection, demand in certain segments of Applied Materials' business may decline sharply when the cycle turns [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment and Memory Markets - **Key Focus**: Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) market forecasts and company-specific performance in the semiconductor sector Key Points and Arguments WFE Market Outlook - **WFE Estimates Raised**: Global WFE estimates for 2025-2028 have been increased by an average of 10% due to stronger memory spending trends and an uptick in foundry investments [1][9] - **2026 Growth Drivers**: Anticipated $10 billion year-over-year growth in WFE for 2026 is primarily driven by DRAM ($3 billion), NAND ($3 billion), and Foundry ($4 billion) [7][11] - **China's WFE Growth**: Expected to underperform compared to the rest of the world through 2027 as it digests trailing-edge capacity [7] Company-Specific Insights - **Applied Materials (AMAT)**: - **Rating**: Buy - **Expectations**: Anticipated upside to guidance due to improved memory spending outlook despite recent weak guidance and export controls affecting China [2][20] - **Focus Areas**: Investors are expected to monitor commentary on 2026 industry growth, Foundry/Logic spending, and China exposure [20][23] - **Seagate Technology (STX)**: - **Rating**: Buy - **Caution**: Investor expectations are considered elevated, potentially leading to overbought conditions [3] - **Earnings Print**: Awaiting clearer insights on supply-demand balance, especially from large hyperscale customers [3] - **Lam Research (LRCX)**: - **Rating**: Buy - **Expectations**: Anticipated upside due to stronger memory spending, with a focus on 2026 WFE growth and gross margin trajectory [28][30] - **Investor Focus**: Commentary on 2026 growth expectations and updates on customer strategy [30] - **KLA Corporation (KLAC)**: - **Rating**: Neutral - **Expectations**: Modest upside anticipated due to positive memory spending trends, with a focus on 2026 growth commentary and advanced packaging revenue [36][39] - **MKS Instruments (MKSI)**: - **Rating**: Sell - **Expectations**: Slight upside expected, but high financial leverage could dampen performance [45][46] - **Investor Focus**: Memory market strength and gross margin stability [47] - **Teradyne (TER)**: - **Rating**: Sell - **Expectations**: Slight upside anticipated, with a focus on potential merchant GPU wins and Robotics growth [52][54] - **Investor Focus**: VIP market trajectory and updates on large customer announcements [55] Additional Important Insights - **Investor Sentiment**: Overall investor expectations are elevated across the semiconductor sector, particularly in memory and foundry segments, which may lead to volatility in stock performance [1][3][20][29] - **CapEx Trends**: Investors are closely monitoring capital expenditure forecasts from major players in the memory and foundry sectors, as these will significantly influence stock performance in the near term [24][31][40] Conclusion The semiconductor equipment industry is experiencing a positive outlook driven by increased memory and foundry spending. However, elevated investor expectations may pose risks for certain companies, particularly those with high valuations or exposure to export restrictions. Key companies to watch include AMAT, STX, LRCX, KLAC, MKSI, and TER, each with unique challenges and opportunities in the evolving market landscape.

Cryptocurrency Industry - October is historically a strong month for crypto and related assets, with September performing better than expected [2] - Coinbase has seen a resurgence in interest due to key legislation regarding stable coins and a favorable framework for crypto adoption in the US [3] - Rothschild upgraded Coinbase shares to "buy" with a price target raised to $417 from $325, citing expected retail volume growth despite anticipated compression in the company's take rate [3] - Coinbase shares have increased significantly, up 161% from lows in April and 45.5% year-to-date, although they have pulled back 16% from recent highs of $444 [4][5] - Goldman Sachs also raised its price target for Coinbase to $363 from $351, maintaining a neutral rating [6] Semiconductor Industry - Applied Materials issued a revenue warning, expecting a $710 million hit due to new export restrictions affecting sales to China [8] - The new rules are projected to reduce Applied Materials' fourth-quarter revenue by approximately $110 million and 2026 revenue by about $600 million [9] - Despite the warning, Applied Materials' stock has risen 37% this year, with peers like Lamb Research and KLA also showing significant gains [10] - China accounts for about 30% of Applied Materials' sales, and a meaningful drop in revenue from this market is anticipated [10] - A 10% quarter-on-quarter sales drop is expected for Applied Materials in the fourth quarter, reflecting broader industry concerns regarding exposure to China [11]

Core Insights - KLA Corporation is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on April 30, with projected revenues of $3 billion, plus/minus $150 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 27.36% [1] - The company anticipates non-GAAP earnings of $8.05 per share, plus/minus 60 cents, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 53.23% [2] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.01 billion, which is slightly above KLA's own revenue guidance [1] - The consensus mark for earnings is at $8.06 per share, which has decreased by a penny over the past month [2] Growth Drivers - KLA's advanced packaging portfolio is experiencing momentum due to rising demand for powerful chip systems and complex chip integration, with advanced packaging revenues projected to exceed $800 million in 2025, up from $500 million in 2024 [3] - The company's growth in the wafer fab equipment market is supported by strong investments in leading-edge logic, high-bandwidth memory, and advanced packaging, contributing positively to its performance [4] - Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) are driving demand for advanced semiconductors and process control solutions, which are expected to significantly impact KLA's third-quarter performance [5] Services Segment Performance - KLA's Services segment reported $667 million in revenues in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, marking its 50th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, which is likely to have a positive impact on the upcoming quarter [6] Tax and Regulatory Considerations - KLA anticipates a modest increase in its effective tax rate to approximately 14% in the second half of 2025 due to global tax reforms, which may negatively affect the reported quarter [7] - Ongoing uncertainty regarding the U.S. government's processing of export licenses could pose additional risks to revenue performance [7] Earnings Prediction Model - According to the Zacks model, KLA has an Earnings ESP of +0.23% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a reasonable chance of an earnings beat [8]