It's okay. We like laughter. Exactly. Exactly.Tim, thank you. Welcome to Fast Money. It's been a tale of two very different second halves in the big box world.Shares of Walmart and Costco diverging sharply since July. And Chris here thinks the trend will last into the new year. So, let's go off the charts.What are you seeing here. >> Well, I think importantly, let's remember where we are on the calendar. It's December.Winners tend to be rewarded in December and Walmart has certainly been the winner uh in th ...

Core Insights - Walmart's Black Friday sale offers significant discounts and a wide variety of products, making it a competitive option for holiday shopping [1][2] - The sale includes notable deals such as $25 Crocs for adults, $100 off the PlayStation 5, and various home upgrade discounts [2] - Walmart Plus membership is currently available at a 50% discount, providing benefits like free delivery, streaming service options, and early access to Black Friday deals [3][5] Product Highlights - The PlayStation 5 1TB Flowering Chaos Bundle is priced at $449, down from $549.99, representing an 18% savings [8] - Apple AirPods Pro 3 are available for $219.99, a 12% discount from the original price of $249 [11] - Other featured products include a range of Lego kits, gaming accessories, and family clothing [12] Sale Timeline - Walmart's Black Friday sales began on November 13 for Walmart Plus members, with subsequent events continuing until November 30 [13]

Core Insights - Walmart has initiated its Black Friday sales, having started promotions earlier in the month, with significant discounts available on various products [1][13] - The retailer is offering a 50% discount on Walmart Plus memberships, which provides benefits such as free delivery, streaming service options, and early access to Black Friday deals [3][5] Product Highlights - Notable deals include a PS5 bundle priced at $449, which represents an 18% discount from its original price of $549.99 [8] - The Apple AirPods Pro 3 are available for $219.99, reflecting a 12% discount from the original price of $249 [11] - Other featured products in the Black Friday sale include big-screen TVs, family apparel, and fitness headphones [12] Sale Timeline - Walmart's first Black Friday sale commenced on November 13, with early access for Walmart Plus members, and continued until November 16. A second event for Walmart Plus members started on November 24 and will run until November 30 [13]

Core Insights - Walmart reported impressive third-quarter earnings, beating expectations with earnings per share (EPS) of 62 cents, which was 2 cents higher than anticipated, and revenue of $179.5 billion, exceeding the expected $177 billion [3][4] - The company raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook for the second consecutive quarter, projecting a 5% increase in sales and adjusted earnings in the range of $258 to $263 million [7][10] E-commerce Performance - Walmart experienced significant e-commerce growth, with global sales up 27% and U.S. e-commerce sales increasing by 28%, driven by store-filled delivery of online orders and growth in advertising and third-party marketplace [4][5] - Revenue related to faster deliveries, which can reach 95% of U.S. households in under 3 hours, rose by 70% year-over-year, particularly benefiting from affluent customers [9] Consumer Behavior - There was a nearly 2% rise in foot traffic and a nearly 3% increase in the average ticket price in U.S. stores, with comparable store sales rising by 4.5%, surpassing the expected 4% growth [6][7] - The CFO noted that consumer habits remained stable, with shoppers spending selectively and seeking deals, while higher-income customers increasingly turned to Walmart for relief from rising prices [8] Market Reaction - Following Walmart's report, shares rose by 8.5%, positively impacting other retailers such as Target, Costco, and Home Depot, which also saw stock increases [14]

Core Insights - Walmart is undergoing significant leadership changes, with a focus on e-commerce and digital growth strategies [2][3][5] - The current CEO, Doug, has been pivotal in modernizing Walmart's operations, particularly in digital and supply chain areas [3][5] - The potential successor, Ferner, is seen as well-prepared to lead Walmart into the future, especially in the context of AI and agent commerce [5][6] Leadership Transition - Doug has been with Walmart for about a decade, emphasizing digital growth and modernization [3][4] - Ferner has been integral to Walmart's recent successes, particularly in launching Walmart Plus and enhancing e-commerce [2][5] - The leadership transition is viewed as timely, with expectations that AI will significantly impact retail in the coming years [5][6] Future Outlook - The next five to seven years are critical for Walmart as it navigates the evolving retail landscape [3][5] - The company is expected to leverage Ferner's experience and insights gained over the past six to seven years to drive future growth [5][6] - Observers are keen to watch how Walmart adapts to upcoming catalysts in the retail sector [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported low single-digit inflation in the U.S., with food prices being higher than desired due to prolonged increases in categories like prepared and processed foods [8][9] - The operating income percentage is expected to improve as the second P&L, which includes e-commerce and other new revenue streams, scales up [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce has turned profitable recently, contributing positively to the overall business model [15][19] - The rollback count on food items increased by about 30%, with over 7,000 rollbacks reported [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong demand from middle to upper-income consumers, while middle to lower-income consumers are showing some stress [2][3] - The promotional environment remains rational despite tariff impacts, allowing the company to maintain competitive pricing [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building a dual P&L structure to differentiate between traditional retail and e-commerce operations, aiming for long-term profitability [18][19] - Investments in automation and AI are expected to revolutionize the supply chain, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [21][23][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management anticipates consistent consumer behavior for the remainder of the year, with gradual cost pressures expected to continue [58] - The competitive landscape is expected to remain stable, with well-run retailers likely to gain market share [66][67] Other Important Information - The company is leveraging its technology and supply chain capabilities to enhance the performance of Sam's Club, with plans for new club openings and e-commerce integration [51][52] - The advertising business is growing, with opportunities in both the U.S. and international markets, particularly in India [41][42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for consumer health in the back half of the year - Management expects consumer health to remain consistent, with gradual cost pressures playing out over time [58] Question: Pricing elasticity response - The response to pricing actions is expected to depend on tariff levels and the rational behavior of customers [59][60] Question: Inventory growth expectations - The company has managed inventory well, with only a 2.2% increase in Walmart U.S. inventory at the end of the last quarter [62][63] Question: Margins outlook for freight, wages, and materials - Expectations for some categories, like wage inflation, are normalized, but others, such as steel tariffs, are expected to worsen [65] Question: Competitive landscape and market share consolidation - Market share consolidation is expected to remain stable, with new entrants and changes among participants continuing to occur [66][67]

Summary of Walmart (WMT) FY Conference - June 09, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Walmart (WMT) - **Event**: Oppenheimer's 25th Annual Consumer Growth and Ecommerce Conference - **Date**: June 09, 2025 - **Key Speakers**: John David Rainey (EVP and CFO), Carrie Bruner (Senior Director of Investor Relations) Key Points Industry and Market Performance - Walmart shares increased by approximately 8% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 [1] - The U.S. consumer showed a 4.5% comparable sales increase in Q1, with strong performance in grocery and health and wellness sectors [3][4] - There was a noted softness in the general merchandise category, particularly at the start of the quarter, attributed to unseasonably cold weather and negative consumer sentiment regarding tariffs and immigration [5][6] E-commerce Growth - E-commerce grew over 20% across all segments, with a significant increase in express delivery services, which saw a 90% rise in deliveries under three hours [7][9] - A third of overall deliveries were express, contributing positively to e-commerce profitability [9][31] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment is described as rational, with Walmart improving its price gaps through strategic investments [11][12] - Walmart aims to maintain its position as a price leader despite challenges posed by tariffs [13][14] Tariff Management - Ongoing discussions with the administration regarding tariffs, with no significant changes reported since mid-May [14][15] - Anticipated category-specific impacts from tariffs, leading to reduced purchasing of higher-priced items [16][17] Grocery and General Merchandise Strategy - Continued strong performance in grocery, with private brand penetration increasing by 60 basis points in Q1 [19][20] - Expansion of product assortment, including the successful launch of the "Better Goods" private brand, which generated nearly half a billion in sales since launch [20][21] - General merchandise remains a focus area, with digital growth in categories like auto care exceeding 20% [23][24] Health and Wellness Sector - Health and wellness saw high teens comp increases, with pharmacy delivery being a key growth area [26][28] - Excluding GLP-1 drugs, sales grew about 10%, indicating strong underlying performance [27][28] Alternative Revenue Streams - Walmart expects two-thirds of profit growth to come from alternative revenue streams such as advertising, marketplace, and data services [35][36] - Advertising revenue is seen as a significant growth opportunity, with potential for expansion through the Vizio acquisition [40][41] Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns - Walmart maintains a balanced capital allocation strategy, focusing on supply chain automation and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [68][70] - The company has increased dividends significantly over the past two years, aiming for growth in line with free cash flow [70][71] International Growth - Strong double-digit comp growth in China, with Sam's Club performing exceptionally well [57][58] - Continued investment in international markets, including India and Flipkart, with expectations for top-line growth [59][61] Sam's Club Strategy - Aggressive target to double the membership base over the next 8-10 years, with plans for 15 new store openings annually [62][63] - Enhanced digital and in-club experiences, including scan-and-go technology, contributing to high customer satisfaction [64][65] Conclusion - Walmart is positioned for continued growth through strategic investments in e-commerce, grocery, and alternative revenue streams, while navigating challenges posed by tariffs and competitive pressures [71][72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first quarter, the company grew sales by 4% and profit by 3% in constant currency [7] - Consolidated revenue increased by 4% in constant currency, despite currency headwinds reducing reported sales results by $2.4 billion [25] - Adjusted operating income grew by 3% in constant currency, with adjusted EPS of 61 cents, higher than the guided range [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Walmart US comp sales grew by 4.5%, aided by strong e-commerce sales growth of 21% [26] - Sam's Club US comp sales, excluding fuel, increased nearly 7%, with e-commerce growing by 27% [29] - International business sales grew by 7.8% in constant currency, driven by strength in China and Flipkart [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce globally grew by 22%, with each segment delivering growth of at least 20% [8] - In international markets, items delivered same or next day increased by 35%, with about 45% delivered in under three hours [28] - The number of deliveries in less than three hours for Walmart US grew by 91% year-on-year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving e-commerce growth and reshaping its business model for higher profitability [9] - The strategy includes managing inventory effectively and navigating tariff impacts while maintaining low prices [11][21] - The company aims to grow profit faster than sales, with a commitment to diversifying income streams through advertising and membership [19][70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating cost pressures from tariffs and maintaining profitability [21][39] - The company anticipates that economic uncertainty may provide opportunities to gain market share [37] - Management emphasized the importance of managing inventory well in a dynamic environment [46] Other Important Information - The company achieved e-commerce profitability for the first time on a global basis [30] - Membership fee income grew nearly 15% across the enterprise, with strong growth in Sam's Club and Walmart Plus memberships [31][32] - The company repurchased $4.6 billion in stock during the first quarter, equivalent to the total for the previous year [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: E-commerce profitability and future margins - Management highlighted that e-commerce profitability was achieved globally, driven by network densification and reduced delivery costs [51][52] Question: Balancing investments and profit growth - Management stated that they are striking the right balance between investment and profit growth, with a focus on diversifying income streams [70][71] Question: Consumer behavior across income levels - Management noted growth across all income cohorts, with a focus on value and speed of delivery [75][76] Question: Capital allocation and automation investment - Management confirmed that CapEx will remain in the range of 3% to 3.5% of sales, with a focus on long-term returns [85][86] Question: Strength in advertising and integration of Vizio - Management reported strong growth in Walmart Connect and highlighted the ongoing integration of Vizio [91][92] Question: Impact of tariffs on inventory planning - Management emphasized the importance of managing replenishable items and adjusting inventory based on tariff assumptions [106][107]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first quarter, the company reported a sales growth of 4% and profit growth of 3% in constant currency [6] - International sales increased by 7.8%, with e-commerce growing globally by 22% [6][25] - Consolidated revenue increased by 4% in constant currency, despite currency headwinds reducing reported sales by $2.4 billion [25] - Adjusted operating income grew by 3% in constant currency, with adjusted EPS of 61¢ exceeding the guided range [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Walmart US comp sales grew by 4.5%, driven by strong e-commerce sales growth of 21% [26] - Health and wellness sales increased in the high teens, while general merchandise sales saw a slight decline [26] - Sam's Club US comp sales, excluding fuel, increased nearly 7%, with e-commerce growing by 27% [28] - The advertising business across markets increased by 50%, with Walmart Connect in the US growing by 31% [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international business saw a sales growth of 7.8% in constant currency, particularly strong in China and Flipkart [27] - Items delivered same or next day in international markets increased by 35%, with about 45% delivered in under three hours [27] - The company reported that over 50% of Sam's Club members now transact digitally [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving e-commerce growth and enhancing delivery speed, aiming to reach 95% of the US population with delivery options of three hours or less [8] - The strategy includes diversifying profit streams through e-commerce, advertising, and membership, with a commitment to grow profit faster than sales [19][36] - The company plans to continue investing in automation, store growth, and technology, while managing costs associated with tariffs [34][85] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating cost pressures from tariffs and maintaining profitability despite challenges [21][36] - The company anticipates that the current economic environment will not alter its long-term financial framework [36][95] - Management highlighted the importance of managing inventory effectively in a dynamic environment, particularly in light of tariff impacts [104] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $4.6 billion in stock during the first quarter, equivalent to the total share repurchases for the previous year [35] - The company expects capital expenditures to be in the range of 3% to 3.5% of sales for the fiscal year [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: E-commerce profitability and future margins - Management noted that e-commerce achieved profitability for the first time, driven by network densification and reduced delivery costs [50][51] Question: Balancing investments and profit growth - Management emphasized the importance of growing profit faster than sales while remaining open to increasing investments as needed [66] Question: Consumer behavior across income levels - Management reported growth across all income cohorts, with a focus on value and convenience for customers [73][78] Question: Capital allocation and share buybacks - Management confirmed a commitment to share buybacks in response to price dislocations, while balancing investments and dividends [85] Question: Impact of tariffs on marketplace sellers - Management indicated that inventory is flowing well and that tools have been developed to assist sellers in managing their inventory effectively [107]