ab 13 June 2025 Global Research First Read China Pet Food May 2025: robust growth in 618 campaign; Douyin Leads, Gambol and CPF continue gaining market share Sustained Strong Growth; Douyin Leads the Pack According to Meritco, online GMV for pet food across Tmall, Douyin, and JD rose by 18% YoY in May 2025, primarily driven by a 22% increase in volume. This was partially offset by a 4.3% decline in average selling price (ASP), attributed to the 618 campaign. Cumulative sales from January to May also grew by ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the pet food industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the market benchmark [3]. Core Insights - The pet food industry is experiencing significant growth, with domestic brands outperforming foreign competitors due to a trend of domestic substitution. Leading domestic brands like Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co. are showing impressive sales growth and profitability [1]. - Guai Bao Pet's main brand, Mai Fu Di, has maintained the top position on Tmall for five consecutive years, achieving a 150% year-on-year sales increase during the 2024 Double 11 shopping festival. The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in 2024, a 21.22% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 625 million yuan, up 45.68% [1]. - Zhong Chong Co. has developed a strong portfolio of proprietary brands and reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, a 19.15% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% [1]. - Petty Co. also showed strong performance with a revenue of 1.659 billion yuan in 2024, a 17.56% increase year-on-year, and a remarkable net profit growth of 1742.81% [1]. - The report highlights the increasing consumer focus on experience-driven pet care, with new retail formats emerging that combine product offerings with services, catering to the evolving needs of pet owners [2]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Guai Bao Pet achieved a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 625 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1]. - Zhong Chong Co. reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 394 million yuan, showcasing robust brand performance [1]. - Petty Co. reached a revenue of 1.659 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase to 1.82 billion yuan, marking a historic high [1]. Market Trends - The pet food sector is identified as the largest segment within the pet industry, driven by the essential nature of pet care throughout their lifecycle [1]. - The report notes a shift towards high-end market opportunities due to uncertainties in tariffs, which may benefit companies with strong proprietary brands [1]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong channel strategies and innovative product offerings, such as Tian Yuan Pet and Yi Yi Co., as well as those expanding into smart pet care solutions [3]. - Companies like Guai Bao Pet and Petty Co. are highlighted for their impressive growth in proprietary brand sales, indicating potential investment opportunities [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company demonstrates a robust global supply chain advantage and rapid growth of its proprietary brands, with significant revenue and profit increases projected for the coming years [1][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 19.15%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% year-over-year [1]. - The overseas business is expected to maintain steady growth due to sufficient orders and unique production capacity in North America, especially amid increasing trade tensions [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 28.19%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points from 2023, and a gross margin of 31.87% in Q1 2025, up 4.02 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - Domestic revenue reached 1.414 billion yuan in 2024, a 30.26% increase year-over-year, with pet staple food revenue soaring by 91.85% [2]. - The company focuses on three major proprietary brands, with significant marketing and channel development efforts leading to expected high revenue growth [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 453 million yuan, 561 million yuan, and 709 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.54, 1.91, and 2.41 yuan [3][4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 35 in 2025 to 22 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company demonstrates a robust global supply chain advantage and rapid growth of its proprietary brands, with significant revenue and profit increases projected for the coming years [1][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 19.15%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% [1][4]. - The overseas business is expected to maintain steady growth due to sufficient orders and unique production capacity in North America, especially amid increasing trade tensions [1][3]. - The domestic market is focusing on three major proprietary brands, with the pet staple food category showing remarkable growth, particularly a 91.85% increase in revenue for pet staple food [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 4.465 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.640 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.46% [4]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 394 million yuan in 2024 to 709 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.34 yuan in 2024 to 2.41 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 39.88 to 22.16 over the same period [4].