Core Viewpoint - Investors are encouraged to regularly reassess their portfolios, considering whether to buy, sell, or hold stocks like Costco Wholesale, which has shown strong performance but may require evaluation in light of changing market conditions [1][2]. Company Performance - Costco has produced a total return of 188% over the past five years, indicating strong historical performance [2]. - The company continues to show solid same-store sales growth, with a 3.1% increase in traffic reported for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [5]. - Analysts project Costco's revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 7.6% from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, supported by plans for at least 30 new warehouse openings annually [6]. Market Position - Costco shares are currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.9, which is 106% higher than the S&P 500 index and represents significant premiums over competitors like Walmart and BJ's Wholesale [9]. - Despite trading 8% below its peak, Costco's stock has appreciated by 15% in 2026, reflecting the market's premium valuation of the company due to its predictable financial performance [8]. Investment Recommendation - The current assessment suggests that Costco stock is not a buy at this moment, but existing shareholders should hold their positions due to the company's strong fundamentals [10].

Core Viewpoint - Costco has experienced a disappointing year in 2025, with its stock price down 6% despite strong operational performance [1] Group 1: Same-Store Sales Performance - Costco's same-store sales (SSS) have shown impressive growth, indicating strong productivity at existing locations [4] - In fiscal 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Costco reported positive SSS of 7.7%, followed by 16% in fiscal 2021 and 14.4% in fiscal 2022, with the positive trend continuing [5] - The company is expected to maintain its SSS growth in 2026, driven by increased foot traffic and higher average ticket sizes [6] Group 2: Growth Strategy - Costco currently operates 921 warehouses, with approximately two-thirds located in the U.S., and plans to open 28 net new warehouses in fiscal 2026 [6] - There are significant opportunities for expansion in the U.S. and international markets, particularly in China, which is promising for revenue growth in 2026 and beyond [7] Group 3: Valuation Considerations - Despite a strong operational performance in 2025, with net sales and net income increasing by 8% and 10% year over year, the stock has faced valuation concerns [8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 46, down from 63 earlier in 2025, indicating a potentially better valuation setup for investors [9]

Core Insights - BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, leading to an increase in the full-year profit forecast due to rising membership income [1] Financial Performance - The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.16, surpassing analysts' expectations of $1.10 [2] - Revenue reached $5.35 billion, matching consensus estimates and reflecting a 4.9% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Comparable club sales rose by 1.1% year over year, while comparable sales excluding gasoline increased by 1.8%, indicating a two-year stacked growth of 5.5% [2] Membership and Sales Growth - Membership fee income, a crucial profitability driver, grew by 9.8% to $126.3 million, supported by strong member acquisition and retention trends [3] - Digitally enabled sales expanded by 30% year over year, with a two-year stacked growth rate of 61% [3] Future Outlook - The company narrowed its full-year comparable club sales outlook but raised its earnings forecast, now expecting fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $4.30 to $4.40, compared to analyst expectations of $4.33 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart is facing stronger headwinds as it transitions from a high-growth phase to a more mature stage, yet it continues to generate significant returns for investors through its extensive U.S. presence and online strategy [1][4]. Company Overview - Walmart has a market capitalization exceeding $815 billion, indicating that its growth potential is unlikely to match its earlier rapid expansion [4]. - Approximately 90% of U.S. consumers live within 10 miles of a Walmart location, highlighting its strong market presence [4]. - Walmart's Sam's Club division is noted as the most successful warehouse retailer in the U.S. after Costco [4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of fiscal 2026, Walmart reported revenue of $343 billion, reflecting a 4% increase year-over-year [9]. - The company's net income for the first two quarters reached $11.5 billion, a 20% increase from the previous year [9]. - Walmart has raised its fiscal third-quarter outlook, expecting net sales to rise between 3.75% and 4.75% annually [10]. Dividend and Returns - Walmart offers a dividend of $0.94 per share, resulting in a current yield of 0.9% [5]. - Over the past decade, a $1,000 investment in Walmart stock has yielded total returns exceeding $5,800, with approximately $1,000 from dividends [6]. - Walmart has a track record of 52 consecutive years of annual dividend increases, qualifying it for Dividend King status [5]. Valuation Concerns - Walmart's stock is currently valued at a P/E ratio of 39, which is higher than Amazon's 35 and Target's 10 [10]. - This elevated valuation may lead investors to question the stock's worth compared to potential alternatives [10][13]. Investment Outlook - While Walmart's long-term track record and rising dividends make it a solid holding, the current market conditions may not be ideal for adding shares [14]. - The company's revenue growth of 4% is not significantly above inflation and population growth, raising concerns about its future performance [12].

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale has achieved a total return of 733% over the past decade, making it the third-largest retailer globally, following Walmart and Amazon [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the fiscal 2025 third quarter, Costco reported net sales of $62 billion, showcasing its significant market presence [1][3] Group 2: Competitive Advantage - Costco's business model involves selling a limited number of stock-keeping units (SKUs), averaging around 4,000, compared to the 30,000 typically found in supermarkets, allowing for high volume sales of fewer products [3] - The company's scale provides a powerful cost advantage, enabling it to negotiate better terms with suppliers and pass on savings to customers [4] Group 3: Customer Engagement - Memberships at Costco have increased by 6.8% year-over-year in Q3, with a high renewal rate of 90.2%, indicating strong customer loyalty [4] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Despite Costco's strong performance and growth potential, the current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 54.2, suggesting that it may not be the right time to purchase shares [5]