Core Insights - BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, leading to an increase in the full-year profit forecast due to rising membership income [1] Financial Performance - The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.16, surpassing analysts' expectations of $1.10 [2] - Revenue reached $5.35 billion, matching consensus estimates and reflecting a 4.9% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Comparable club sales rose by 1.1% year over year, while comparable sales excluding gasoline increased by 1.8%, indicating a two-year stacked growth of 5.5% [2] Membership and Sales Growth - Membership fee income, a crucial profitability driver, grew by 9.8% to $126.3 million, supported by strong member acquisition and retention trends [3] - Digitally enabled sales expanded by 30% year over year, with a two-year stacked growth rate of 61% [3] Future Outlook - The company narrowed its full-year comparable club sales outlook but raised its earnings forecast, now expecting fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $4.30 to $4.40, compared to analyst expectations of $4.33 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 9% to 1.93 billion and 2.20 billion RMB respectively, based on better-than-expected cost optimization [1] - The target price for the next 12 months has been increased to 240 HKD from 184 HKD, with the core business contributing 223 HKD based on an average P/E ratio of 20 times for quality content and copyright companies [1] - The cash contribution to the target price is 17 HKD, reflecting a 30% discount [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.86 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 8%, which is a larger drop compared to a 2% decline in the second half of 2024, primarily due to a decrease in social entertainment revenue [1] - The gross margin improved to 36.7%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from growth in subscription revenue and optimization in live streaming revenue sharing [1] - For 2025, online music revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year, with subscription revenue projected to increase by 16%, driven by membership expansion [2] - Non-member business revenue is anticipated to rise by 11%, although advertising revenue growth may slow due to a high base effect [2] - Social revenue expectations have been lowered by 7% to 1.8 billion RMB, corresponding to a year-on-year decline of 31%, but profit is expected to remain stable due to optimized revenue sharing costs [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.08 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The gross profit margin was 29.0%, with an operating profit of 1.74 billion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.36 billion yuan, a significant decline of 61.6%, primarily due to changes in corporate income tax policies affecting deferred tax assets [2][3] - Membership revenue grew rapidly, reaching 5.15 billion yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year, driven by popular shows and an upgraded membership benefits system. The total number of members reached 73.31 million by the end of 2024 [2][3] - The company's internet video business revenue was 10.18 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 35.3%. Advertising revenue was 3.44 billion yuan, showing slight fluctuations, while operator business revenue was 1.59 billion yuan, facing short-term pressure [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, total revenue was 14.628 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.556 billion yuan, resulting in an EPS of 1.90 yuan. The P/E ratio was 11.84 [1][10] - The forecast for 2024A includes total revenue of 14.08 billion yuan, a net profit of 1.364 billion yuan, and an EPS of 0.73 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 30.86 [1][10] - The company expects a gradual recovery in revenue, projecting 15.376 billion yuan for 2025E and 16.458 billion yuan for 2026E, with net profits of 1.804 billion yuan and 2.073 billion yuan respectively [1][10]