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Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. consumers are facing significant price increases on various imported goods due to high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which will ultimately lead to higher costs for households [1][4][7] - The average effective tariff rate on imported goods in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest level since 1934, which is expected to increase average household spending by $2,400 by 2025 [4] - The tariffs are projected to cause a short-term price increase of 18.2% on computers and electronic products, with long-term increases of 7.7% [1][4] Group 2 - Apparel and footwear prices are expected to rise significantly, with short-term increases of 40% for shoes and 38% for clothing, and long-term increases of 19% and 17%, respectively [1] - The tariffs on Swiss watches, which are currently set at 39%, could lead to a short-term price increase of 39.7% for these products [5] - The tariffs are anticipated to lower the U.S. GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 [4]

Core Insights - NRSInsights reported a year-over-year increase in same-store sales of 2.3% for March 2025, down from a 3.5% increase in February 2025 [6][12] - The NRS retail network includes approximately 35,200 active terminals across 30,700 independent retailers, primarily serving urban consumers [2][18] Sales Performance - Same-store sales increased by 5.3% compared to February 2025, which had a 6.1% increase from January 2025 [7] - For the three months ending March 31, 2025, same-store sales rose by 2.9% compared to the same period last year [7] - Units sold increased by 2.4% year-over-year, with a 4.9% increase compared to February 2025 [7] - Average prices for the top 500 items purchased rose by 2.1% year-over-year, slightly lower than the 2.3% increase in February 2025 [7] Transaction Metrics - Baskets (transactions) per store increased by 0.2% year-over-year and by 6.2% compared to February 2025 [7] - The NRS network processed $2.0 billion in sales during March 2025, representing a 16% year-over-year increase [18] Category Performance - Strong sales were noted in categories such as Energy Beverages, Soft Drinks, and Modern Oral Smokeless Tobacco, while Chocolates and Gum also showed positive growth [12][13] - Categories with decreased sales included Beer, Whiskey, and Salty Snacks, with notable declines in Tortilla Chips and Potato Chips [14] Comparative Analysis - Over the past twelve months, the NRS network's three-month moving average same-store sales outperformed the U.S. Commerce Department's data by an average of 0.8% [10] - In March, the U.S. Commerce Department's three-month rolling average increase exceeded that of the NRS network by 0.8% [10]

Core Insights - NRSInsights reported a year-over-year increase in same-store sales of 2.3% for March 2025, a decrease from the 3.5% increase in February 2025 [6][11] - The NRS retail network includes approximately 35,200 active terminals across 30,700 independent retailers, primarily serving urban consumers [2][17] - The data indicates a general cooling of inflationary pressures, with dollar sales increases being geographically widespread [11] Sales Performance - Same-store sales increased 5.3% compared to February 2025, while units sold increased 2.4% year-over-year [6][7] - For the three months ending March 31, 2025, same-store sales rose 2.9% compared to the same period last year [7][16] - Average prices for the top 500 items purchased increased by 2.1% year-over-year, slightly lower than the 2.3% increase in February 2025 [6][12] Transaction Metrics - Units sold increased by 4.9% compared to February 2025, while baskets (transactions) per store increased by 0.2% year-over-year [7][12] - Baskets per store saw a significant increase of 6.2% compared to the previous month [7][12] Category Performance - Strong sales were noted in categories such as Energy Beverages, Soft Drinks, and Modern Oral Smokeless Tobacco, while Chocolates also performed well [11][12] - Categories experiencing decreased sales included Beer, Whiskey, and various snacks, with notable exceptions like Tequila showing gains [12][13] Comparative Data - Over the past twelve months, the NRS network's three-month moving average same-store sales outpaced the U.S. Commerce Department's data by an average of 0.8% [9] - In March, the U.S. Commerce Department's three-month rolling average increase exceeded that of the NRS network by 0.8% [9] Transaction Volume - In March 2025, NRS' POS terminals processed $2.0 billion in sales, representing a 16% year-over-year increase across 134 million transactions [17]