Core Viewpoint - The global weight loss drug market is projected to reach at least $100 billion by 2030, growing sixfold from 2024, with Eli Lilly expected to surpass Novo Nordisk in market share by 2025 [3][4][6]. Market Overview - The weight loss drug sales are anticipated to grow significantly from 2024 to 2030, reaching at least $100 billion, which is 7% higher than previous analyses [4]. - The analysis includes a broader range of drugs and adjusts treatment duration and epidemiological assumptions, expanding the target patient population [4]. - By 2030, the estimated number of treated patients is approximately 24 million in the U.S. and 22 million in Europe [4]. Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly is expected to increase its market share from 43% to 53% by 2030, while Novo Nordisk's share is projected to decline from 57% to 33% [6]. - The market will see the entry of up to 24 new weight loss drugs by the end of 2030, compared to only six currently available [6]. Drug Class Insights - GLP-1 injection formulations are expected to dominate the market, with sales projected to reach approximately $81 billion from 2024 to 2030 [8][11]. - The sales peak for Eli Lilly's Zepbound/Mounjaro is expected to reach $40 billion, while Novo Nordisk's Wegovy is projected to peak at $20 billion [8][11]. Future Projections - By 2035, the weight loss drug market could grow to $167 billion, with a peak of $171 billion expected by 2036 [4]. - New GLP-1 injection drugs are anticipated to launch starting in 2026, with significant sales potential for drugs like Novo Nordisk's Cagrisema and Eli Lilly's Retatrutide [11].