Summary of Wanhua Chemical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Wanhua Chemical - **Industry**: Chemicals, specifically polyurethanes - **Market Share**: ~30% for MDI, 19% for TDI, and 21% for aliphatic diisocyanates (ADI) [12][62] Key Financial Performance - **2Q NP**: Rmb3 billion, down 1% q/q and 24% y/y, in line with expectations [2] - **1H25 NP**: Represented 46% of the full-year estimate of Rmb13.2 billion [2] - **GPM**: 12% in 2Q, the lowest since 2002; 1H25 GPM turned negative for the first time in history at -0.4% [8][12] - **Admin Expenses**: Decreased by 41% q/q and 40% y/y to Rmb438 million, the lowest in recent years [8][27] Operational Insights - **Fujian Connell Expansion**: 330ktpa expansion started trial operations in July; slow ramp-up expected due to weak demand [2][19] - **TDI Prices**: Increased by 43% in July to Rmb16,700/t due to Covestro's force majeure; however, demand remains sluggish [8][19] - **Capacity Updates**: Major expansions planned, including a 700ktpa MDI capacity increase pending environmental approval [19] Market Dynamics - **Impact of US-China Trade War**: Escalation may lead to lower earnings for MDI exports and chemicals linked to global GDP/PMI [12][62] - **TDI and MDI Spread Sensitivity**: Wanhua is more exposed to MDI than TDI; a Rmb1,000/t increase in TDI spread could impact EPS by 4% [19] Financial Forecasts - **FY25 NP Forecast**: Expected decline of 5% y/y to Rmb12.4 billion [2] - **Price Target**: Rmb55 based on a 15x one-year forward P/E, consistent with historical averages [13][63] - **Consensus vs. JP Morgan Estimates**: JP Morgan's NP estimates are lower than consensus for FY25 and FY26 [23] Risks and Considerations - **Tariff Impacts**: Ongoing tariffs may affect earnings from MDI exports and other chemical products [12][62] - **Demand Weakness**: Slow demand recovery could limit price increases and affect profitability [8][19] Additional Insights - **Cost Control**: Management attributed flat performance to improved cost control despite declining MDI spreads [2] - **Future Capacity**: New capacities expected to come online in 2H25-1H26, including expansions in Hungary and Xinjiang [19][26] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting Wanhua Chemical's financial performance, operational updates, market dynamics, and future outlook.