Core Insights - The earnings season is commencing with major banks reporting, amidst a backdrop of record U.S. indices and a government shutdown [1] - Wall Street analysts have raised earnings estimates for the first time since late 2021, projecting an 8% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of expansion [2] Financial Sector Outlook - Financials are expected to lead this earnings season, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reporting [3] - M&A activity is showing signs of recovery, with Q3 seeing 111 M&A announcements and global M&A volumes reaching $1.26 trillion, a 40% year-over-year increase [3][4] - The IPO market is also reviving, with 150 IPO announcements in Q3, the best quarter since Q4 2021, indicating a healthier outlook for capital markets [3] Interest Income and Lending - Net Interest Income (NII) is under pressure, with modest growth expected as banks face competition for deposits [4] - Loan growth has been sluggish due to high borrowing costs, but banks are signaling optimism following better-than-expected loan growth in Q2 [5] Credit Quality and Trading - Credit quality remains stable, but any increase in delinquencies will be closely monitored, particularly in commercial real estate and among lower-to-middle income borrowers [6] - Trading is expected to be a strong performer due to market volatility driven by Fed policy changes and geopolitical uncertainty [6] Sector Performance Expectations - The technology sector is projected to outperform, with over 20% earnings growth driven by the AI sector, while consumer staples and discretionary sectors are expected to see declines in earnings [7][11] - AI corporate spending is contributing significantly to U.S. GDP growth, accounting for approximately 40% this year [10] Earnings Season Timeline - The peak of the Q3 earnings season is anticipated between October 27 and November 14, with November 7 expected to be the most active day [12] Market Sentiment - The current earnings season is characterized by a bifurcated market, with optimism in the tech sector contrasted by challenges in other sectors, setting a high bar for companies to meet [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of defensive stocks such as Singapore Exchange (SGX), Singapore Technologies Engineering (STE), and Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) for income investors during periods of market volatility, highlighting their stable earnings and dividends [1][17]. Singapore Exchange (SGX) - SGX is the sole stock exchange operator in Singapore, benefiting from strong recurring income from derivatives and clearing services, and high trading volumes even in volatile markets [2]. - In FY2025, SGX reported its highest revenue and net profit since listing, with net revenue growing 11.7% year on year to S$1.3 billion, driven by growth in equities, currencies, and commodities [3][4]. - The Equities – Cash segment saw a nearly 19% increase in net revenue YoY, while Equities – Derivatives and FICC segments grew by 13.8% and 8.6% respectively [4]. - Total dividend for FY2025 rose by 8.7% YoY to S$0.375 per share, with plans to enhance dividends by S$0.0025 each quarter until FY2028 [5][6]. Singapore Technologies Engineering (STE) - STE's share price reached all-time highs in August 2025, with revenue in 1H2025 growing 7% YoY to S$5.9 billion and net profit increasing nearly 20% to S$403 million [7]. - The order book reached a new high of S$31.2 billion as of 30 June 2025, supported by S$9.1 billion in new contracts secured in the first half of 2025 [8][9]. - STE declared an interim dividend of S$0.08 per share for 1H2025, with plans for a total dividend of S$0.18 per share for 2025 and a new policy to pay out about one-third of year-on-year net profit increases as incremental dividends [10]. Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) - Singtel's financial performance for FY2025 showed group revenue steady at S$14.15 billion, while underlying net profit rose 9.3% to S$2.47 billion [11]. - A significant one-time gain from the partial divestment of its Comcentre headquarters led to a net profit surge of over 400% to S$4.02 billion [12]. - Total capital expenditure is projected at S$2.5 billion for FY2026, with S$0.8 billion allocated for investments in data centers, AI, digitalization, and satellites [14]. - Singtel proposed a total ordinary dividend of S$0.17 per share for FY2025, a 13.3% increase from the previous year, and aims to pay out a core dividend of 70% to 90% of its underlying net profit [14][15].