Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in black metal prices are influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and industry chain interactions, with expectations of continued volatility in the short term [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Domestic growth stabilization is gaining traction, with a marginal recovery in the manufacturing PMI in June, leading to increased expectations for infrastructure investment and manufacturing equipment updates in the second half of the year [1] - In the U.S., May CPI data fell below expectations, raising interest rate cut expectations and causing a decline in the dollar index; however, significant policy divergence within the Federal Reserve and ongoing tariff concerns keep investors cautious [1] - Despite the Fed's liquidity release through potential rate cuts, corporate expansion intentions remain low, limiting actual demand growth [1] Supply Side Analysis - Raw material prices are stable, providing cost support; global iron ore supply is concentrated, with a tightening of high-grade ore at ports and high reliance on imports [1] - Coking coal prices are affected by domestic safety regulations, import country policies, and transportation issues, while coking enterprises are limiting production to maintain prices, reducing supply elasticity [1] Demand Side Analysis - Weakness in the real estate sector has significantly reduced demand for construction steel, although affordable housing projects provide some buffer [1] - Infrastructure project construction supports demand for rebar and other steel products, but is constrained by funding and seasonal factors [1] - Industrial manufacturing shows resilience in high-end steel demand, but global slowdown and trade tensions lead to order fluctuations, limiting substantial demand growth [1] Industry Chain Dynamics - The industry chain is tightly interconnected, with upstream raw material price fluctuations squeezing steel enterprise profits [1] - Midstream steel production is constrained by both cost and demand factors, leading to intensified homogeneous competition [1] - Downstream construction and manufacturing sectors are sensitive to steel prices, with cautious procurement leading to inventory accumulation risks; real estate debt risks are transmitted upstream, exacerbating industry chain instability [1] Conclusion - In summary, black metal prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term due to stable supply but high inventory levels, weak construction demand, limited industrial resilience, and the need for effective macroeconomic policies [1]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Coal industry is facing challenges due to a decline in coal usage in thermal power plants in the U.S., with demand expected to decrease further by 2025 due to the retirement of coal units and a shift towards renewable energy sources [1][2] - Current U.S. recoverable coal reserves are estimated at 252 billion short tons, with 58% being underground mineable coal, but the industry's prospects are hindered by increasing renewable energy adoption and natural gas competitiveness [2][4] Production and Export Trends - U.S. coal production is projected to be 490 million short tons in 2025, an increase from previous estimates, but is expected to decline by 4.5% year-over-year in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026 [5] - Coal exports are anticipated to drop to 93 million short tons in 2025, a 4.1% decrease from earlier projections, with thermal coal exports expected to fall from 49 million short tons in 2025 to 47 million short tons in 2026 due to tariffs imposed by China [3][10] Emission Policies and Market Position - The U.S. aims for 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050, which is contributing to reduced coal usage in electricity generation [4] - The Zacks Coal industry currently ranks 239 out of 246 Zacks industries, placing it in the bottom 3%, reflecting a negative earnings outlook and a 47.2% decline in earnings estimates for 2025 since December 2024 [6][8] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, the coal industry has lost 9%, outperforming the Zacks Oil and Gas sector's decline of 14.5%, but lagging behind the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which gained 6.9% [10] - The industry is trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio of 4.7X, significantly lower than the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 15.86X, indicating a challenging valuation environment [13] Notable Companies - SunCoke Energy focuses on metallurgical coal production, essential for steel manufacturing, and has an annual coke-making capacity of 5.9 million tons, with a current dividend yield of 5.14% [17][18] - Ramaco Resources is positioned to benefit from improving metallurgical coal demand, with 3.5 million tons contracted for 2025 at a fixed price of $145 per ton, and plans to invest $60 to $70 million in capital expenditures for growth initiatives [22][23]