Group 1: Stock Market Overview - The stock market has nearly recovered all losses caused by fears of a new trade war, with the S&P 500 index finishing June 25 less than a percentage point below its all-time high [1] Group 2: AI-Related Stocks - Despite the overall stock market recovery, several top tech stocks involved in the AI revolution are trading at attractive valuations, with demand for AI-related products not yet translating into profits for major large language model (LLM) providers [2] - Nvidia, Lam Research, and ASML Holding are highlighted as stocks with attractive valuations, suggesting potential for market-beating gains over the long term [3] Group 3: Nvidia - Nvidia's fiscal first-quarter sales surged 69% year over year to $44.1 billion, driven by rising demand for AI computing and a software advantage that keeps competitors at bay [6] - The forward PEG ratio for Nvidia is 0.79, indicating it is undervalued and suggesting it is a good time to buy [7] - The majority of AI application developers still rely on Nvidia's CUDA software, reinforcing its competitive position in the market [5] Group 4: Lam Research - Lam Research is positioned as a leader in advanced etch and deposition equipment, essential for semiconductor manufacturing, particularly for high bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI processing [9][10] - The company reported a 12% year-over-year increase in first-quarter earnings, supported by strong demand from Nvidia [10] - Shares of Lam Research are trading at 24 times earnings estimates, which is considered low for a highly profitable company with potential for double-digit earnings growth [11] Group 5: ASML Holding - ASML Holding, a producer of advanced lithography systems, is over 25% off its previous peak, with shares priced around $815 [12] - ASML's lithography machines are critical for producing advanced chips required for AI applications, and the company has sustainable competitive advantages that have led to a 16% annual increase in earnings per share over the past five years [13] - The stock is trading at about 30 times forward-looking earnings expectations, which, while steep, is justifiable given ASML's growth potential [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Global Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment** industry, particularly the implications of potential changes in U.S. export controls affecting shipments to China [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Control Waivers**: Since October 2022, U.S. semiconductor capital equipment (semicap) companies have faced increasing restrictions on shipments to China. Non-Chinese customers with fabs in China have been receiving waivers, but the U.S. Commerce Department is considering canceling these waivers, which would require licenses for shipments [2][3]. - **Impact on Multinational Companies**: Major multinationals with significant capacity in China include **Samsung**, **SK hynix**, **TSMC**, and **UMC**. For instance, SK hynix has 35% of its DRAM capacity in China, while Samsung has 30% of its NAND capacity there [4][5]. - **WFE Spending**: The total WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) spending by non-Chinese companies in China is projected to be around **$2 billion** in 2024, which is only about **4%** of the total WFE deployed in China and less than **2%** of the global WFE market estimated at **$108 billion** [5][6][33][37]. - **Memory Chip Exposure**: Memory chips are seen as the most exposed segment, with China-based fabs accounting for **10%** of global DRAM and **15%** of NAND capacity. However, case-by-case approvals for licenses may mitigate immediate impacts [6][39]. Additional Important Insights - **Deglobalization Trends**: Japanese semiconductor capital equipment companies are expected to benefit from deglobalization trends, as they can serve both U.S. and Chinese markets. Companies like **Tokyo Electron** and **Kokusai** may gain from increased demand for etching and deposition equipment [7]. - **Investment Implications**: - **AMAT (Applied Materials)**: Rated as Outperform with a target price of **$210.00**, driven by secular WFE growth and capital return strategies [10]. - **LRCX (Lam Research)**: Also rated Outperform with a target of **$95.00**, supported by a potential NAND upgrade cycle [10]. - **Tokyo Electron**: Rated Outperform with a target of **¥33,800**, expected to gain market share due to competitive pricing [11]. - **ASML**: Rated Market-Perform with a target of **€700.00**, reflecting a cautious outlook on growth relative to consensus estimates [14]. - **Domestic Chinese Companies**: Companies like **NAURA**, **AMEC**, and **Piotech** are rated Outperform, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution trends in China [15][16][17]. Conclusion - The semiconductor capital equipment industry is facing significant regulatory changes that could impact multinational companies operating in China. While immediate effects may be limited, the long-term implications of export controls and deglobalization trends will shape the competitive landscape. Investment opportunities exist in both established players and emerging domestic companies in China.

For the exclusive use of JATIN CHAWLA at TVF CAPITAL ADVISORS PTE LTD on 22-Jun-2025 22 June 2025 Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment China WFE Import Tracker (May 2025): Imports resilient with YTD YoY -2%, upside risk to our full year projection Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D. +852 2123 2654 qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com David Dai, CFA +852 2918 5704 david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui +852 2123 2694 zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw +1 917 344 ...

Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia is the leading supplier of GPUs, essential for AI workloads in data centers, and has seen strong growth despite earlier concerns about data center spending [3][4] - Revenue reached $44 billion, a 69% increase year over year and a 12% increase from the previous quarter, surpassing Wall Street's estimates [4] - AI spending is projected to boost the global economy by $20 trillion by 2030, positioning Nvidia at the center of this transformation [5] - Demand from cloud service providers contributed to nearly half of Nvidia's data center sales, which grew 73% year over year to $39 billion [6] - Analysts expect Nvidia's earnings to grow 29% annually, which could double the share price in five years if the stock maintains a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 33 [8] Group 2: Lam Research - Lam Research specializes in etch and deposition equipment crucial for chip manufacturing, with its stock rising over 200% in the last five years [10] - The company reported a 24% year-over-year revenue increase, and shares are currently about 25% off previous highs, presenting a buying opportunity [11] - CEO Tim Archer expressed optimism about long-term prospects, highlighting the company's compelling portfolio and growth opportunities in advanced semiconductor production [12] - The semiconductor industry has shown long-term growth, with AI expected to be a significant catalyst over the next decade [12] - Analysts project Lam Research's earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 15%, with a reasonable forward earnings multiple of 21, indicating potential for the stock to double in five years [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The semiconductor capital equipment industry has seen a significant increase in capital intensity and spending, with expectations of reaching around $100 billion in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending [7][12][18] - The company has successfully transformed from being memory-focused to diversifying its portfolio, which has contributed to its strong performance [14][15][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has shifted its focus from memory, which constituted 60-80% of its revenue, to a more balanced approach across various segments, including logic and foundry [14][39] - Advanced packaging and gate-all-around technologies are expected to generate over $3 billion in revenue, indicating rapid growth in these areas [44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has noted that the demand for NAND memory is shifting from capacity spending to upgrade spending, with a significant portion of the upgrade market being served by the company [52][57] - The company has indicated that approximately 30% of its business is currently derived from China, with expectations for this percentage to decrease over time due to geopolitical factors [98] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its share in the leading-edge semiconductor market, particularly in etch and deposition technologies, which are becoming increasingly critical [22][24][28] - The strategy includes investing in new technologies and applications, such as atomic layer deposition and advanced packaging, to capture emerging opportunities [30][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management has expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate challenges posed by export controls and geopolitical risks, emphasizing a diversified strategy that mitigates these impacts [96][97] - The outlook for the second half of the year is cautious due to anticipated weaker demand resulting from recent export restrictions [96] Other Important Information - The company has introduced innovative solutions such as maintenance cobots to enhance its customer service business, which is expected to drive growth in the service segment [73][76] - The establishment of a facility in Malaysia has improved gross margins by approximately 200 basis points, contributing to operational efficiency [109] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company view the current NAND market? - The company noted that NAND spending is primarily focused on upgrades rather than new capacity, which is beneficial for its business model as it captures a high percentage of the upgrade market [52][57][68] Question: What is the impact of export controls on the company? - Management acknowledged the impact of export controls, estimating a loss of approximately $2 billion from the first wave of restrictions, but emphasized that the company continues to post strong results despite these challenges [95][96] Question: How is the company addressing the risks from indigenous Chinese semiconductor players? - The company believes that while these players have grown in capability, its focus remains on expanding its share in the leading-edge market, which is less affected by these competitors [101][102]

Summary of Lam Research (LRCX) FY Conference Call Company Overview - Lam Research is the third largest semiconductor capital equipment company globally, specializing in etch deposition and benefiting from trends in next-generation transistors, memory cells, and advanced packaging [2][6][10]. Industry Insights - Wafer equipment spending has shown a steady increase, with a CAGR of 11% over the past eleven years, compared to 7% for the semiconductor industry. Lam's revenue has outpaced this growth with a 14% CAGR [6][9]. - The company targets $25 billion to $27 billion in revenues by 2028, with a goal of achieving 50% gross margins and 34-35% operating margins [7][10]. Financial Performance - Lam reported the highest gross margin since 2012 and guided for the highest operating margin since the late 1990s [10]. - The company aims for a revenue outlook of 13% per year and an 18% EPS CAGR through 2028 [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The shift from 2D to 3D architectures in semiconductor manufacturing is a significant trend, with Lam positioned to benefit from this transition [11][12]. - The company has diversified its business mix, increasing its foundry logic exposure from 20-30% to over 50% in recent years, anticipating a long-term split of two-thirds foundry logic and one-third memory [13][16]. Technology Migration - Lam is focusing on technology migrations such as gate-all-around and advanced packaging, which are expected to drive significant growth [30][40]. - The NAND upgrade cycle is projected to create a $40 billion upgrade opportunity as customers transition to higher layer counts [52][55]. Customer Engagement and Market Strategy - Despite trade and tariff uncertainties, customer plans have remained stable, with strategic investments continuing in advanced technology areas [19][20]. - Lam's geographic manufacturing strategy allows it to respond effectively to shifts in customer locations, particularly in Asia and the U.S. [21][27]. Operational Efficiencies - The company has improved operational efficiencies, contributing to a consistent increase in gross margins from 45-46% to 49% over the past decade [63][66]. - Lam is undergoing a digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency, expected to yield significant benefits by 2028 [67][69]. Conclusion - Lam Research is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in the semiconductor industry, with a strong focus on technology migration, operational efficiency, and a balanced business mix. The company anticipates continued growth and profitability in the coming years, driven by strategic investments and market dynamics [10][30][36].