Core Insights - The 21st century is being shaped by rare earths and critical minerals, which are essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels, and military applications, with China controlling a significant portion of the supply chain [2][3] Company Summaries - **Rio Tinto**: A diversified mining conglomerate with a market cap of $180 billion, producing iron ore, aluminum, copper, and diamonds. It has maintained a 19% profit margin and generates $18 billion in EBITDA annually, with a forward P/E of 13x and a dividend yield of 4.3%. Revenue for the trailing twelve months reached $53.7 billion, and analysts target a price of $87, indicating a 12% upside [4][5] - **Vale**: A Brazilian company with a market cap of $69 billion, producing nickel and copper alongside iron ore. It has a profit margin of 14% and a dividend yield of 17%. Q3 2025 revenue was $10.4 billion, up 7% year over year, with a net income of $2.68 billion. The company faces risks from the 2019 Brumadinho dam disaster, which resulted in significant fines [6][7] - **Lithium Americas**: Currently not producing, but developing the Thacker Pass project in Nevada, the largest lithium deposit in the U.S. The company has a high beta of 3.5, indicating it is more volatile than the market. General Motors has invested in the project, and government support is present [8][9] - **MP Materials**: Operates the only significant rare earth mine in North America, reporting Q3 revenue of $53.6 million with a net loss of $41.8 million [9] - **Albemarle**: Survived a significant drop in lithium prices from $80,000 to $10,000 per ton, with margins collapsing from 42% to 1.6%, but recovering to 14.8% [9]

Market Trends & Commodity Prices - Average ticket price increased by 15%, driven by a 50% rise in underlying commodity costs over the last year [1] - Silver and platinum prices have increased by 70% in the last year [1] - Natural diamond prices are down roughly 45% from their peak in March 2022 [7] - Gold has appreciated by 11% per annum over the last ten years [3] Lab-Grown Diamonds - Lab-grown diamonds are driving down the price of natural diamonds [2][6] - Approximately 60% of engagement rings sold in the U S this quarter will have a lab-grown center, compared to 2% in 2018 [8] - Industry anticipates 80% adoption of lab-grown diamonds in the next ten years [9] - On the diamond side, 60% plus is lab-grown, 40% is natural [10] Consumer Behavior & Sales - Jewelry industry is up over 10% this year, outperforming other luxury categories [13] - Current sales are up over 30% [12] - 75% of colored gemstone sales are natural, while 25% are lab-grown [10] - Customers prefer perfect diamonds but unique imperfections in colored gemstones [11] Gold Market Dynamics - Central banks are buying roughly 25% of the gold that's out there [5] - Financial investors are a significant part of the gold market [5] - Political and economic uncertainty are driving demand for gold [3]

Industry Trend - The diamond engagement ring's popularity is explained by scarcity, as noted by Nick Szabo in 2008 [1] Company/Organization - De Beers is mentioned in relation to the rise in popularity of diamonds [1]

Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited is a Hong Kong-based company specializing in the design, manufacture, and retail of fine jewelry, including gold, diamonds, and platinum [1] - The company operates a vast network of stores primarily in Greater China and is known for its flagship brands such as CHOW TAI FOOK, HEARTS ON FIRE, and ENZO [1] Performance Metrics - The company holds a Profitable Growth rank of 4, which is consistent with the previous period's rank, indicating above-average performance compared to 910 large consumer discretionary companies worldwide [4] - The Profitability rank is 3, which is better than its Growth rank of 7, and this rank has remained the same compared to the prior period [4] - The Growth rank of 7 has also remained unchanged from the previous period, reflecting below-average performance compared to peers [4]

Industry Challenge - The diamond industry faces a "huge con" perception regarding diamond purchases [1] - De Beers aims to rescue its brand from an ominous decline [1] Company Strategy - De Beers's chief executive seeks to save a generation of lovers and newlyweds from this perception [1]

Industry Trend - De Beers's chief executive aims to protect a generation from a "huge con" in diamond buying [1] - The goal is to rescue the iconic brand from a concerning decline [1]

Industry Overview - Lab-grown diamonds can be produced in 7 days, a stark contrast to the billion years required for natural diamonds [1] - The US sees around 50% of engagement rings now featuring synthetic stones [1] Market Dynamics - China, specifically Hernand province, is estimated to be the origin of 70% of lab-grown diamonds for jewelry [2] - The influx of synthetic stones is dragging down the prices of both lab-grown and small natural diamonds [2] Competitive Landscape - The natural diamond industry is attempting to differentiate itself by labeling synthetic stones as "fakes" and "dupes," but consumer adoption continues [3] - The future of the natural diamond industry is uncertain due to the market saturation of synthetic stones [3]