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宁德时代:业绩符合预期,迎新一轮创新周期-20250317
申万宏源· 2025-03-17 12:04
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, showcasing strong profitability resilience with a revenue of 362 billion yuan in 2024, a 9.7% year-on-year decline, while net profit increased by 15% to 507 billion yuan [4][7] - The company is entering a new innovation cycle, supported by a solid global competitive position and an increase in new model partnerships [7][27] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 362 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.4%, and a net profit margin of 14.0% [7][8] - Battery shipments reached 475 GWh, a 22% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in both power and energy storage batteries [10][34] - The company plans to expand production capacity steadily, with a total capacity of 676 GWh and a utilization rate of 76% in 2024 [19][34] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a 37.9% share of the global power battery market and a 45.1% share in the domestic market, indicating a strong competitive position [7][33] - The number of new models supported by the company increased by 100 compared to 2023, enhancing its market presence [7][41] Future Outlook - The company expects to see a rebound in battery prices and continued growth in global electric vehicle sales, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [7][48] - The company plans to distribute over 250 billion yuan in cash dividends, reflecting a payout ratio of 50% [7][23]
宁德时代(300750):业绩符合预期,迎新一轮创新周期
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, showcasing strong profitability resilience with a revenue of 362 billion yuan in 2024, a 9.7% year-on-year decline, while net profit increased by 15% to 50.7 billion yuan [4][7] - The company is entering a new innovation cycle, supported by a solid global competitive position and increasing market share in the domestic power battery sector [7][28] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 362 billion yuan in 2024 to 570.6 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.1% [6] - Net profit is expected to rise from 50.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 90.9 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to improve from 24.4% in 2024 to 25.8% by 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6] Performance Analysis - The company achieved a battery shipment of 475 GWh in 2024, a 22% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both power and energy storage batteries [7][10] - The inventory level increased to 59.8 billion yuan, primarily due to a rise in shipped goods, indicating strong demand expectations for the first half of 2025 [19] - The company plans to steadily expand production capacity, with 219 GWh under construction by the end of 2024 to meet anticipated demand growth [7][24] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a 37.9% share of the global power battery market and a 45.1% share in the domestic market, reflecting a solid competitive position [7][34] - The number of new vehicle models supported by the company increased by 100 in 2024, enhancing its market penetration and potential for future growth [7][42] Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 97 billion yuan in 2024, with capital expenditures of 31.2 billion yuan, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [24] - A total cash dividend of over 25 billion yuan was planned for 2024, corresponding to a payout ratio of 50%, with a dividend yield of 2.2% based on the closing price [7][24]