Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst, Eric Balchunas joins CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie to discuss why ETF investors are staying remarkable steady while the rest of the market panics. He breaks down the "irony" of ETF boomers showing stronger diamond hands than crypto natives by treating bitcoin as a "hot sauce" allocation within diversified portfolios. Watch to learn how bitcoin’s volatility compares to the 22-year history of gold ETFs and why this drawdown might just be another cycle for the asset cl ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed up 0.46% to a record high of 6,909.79, marking a year-to-date increase of 17.48% [1] - The year 2025 is likely to be recorded positively by investors, with only the quiet Christmas week remaining [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - The price of gold has surged 71% year-to-date, currently around $4,514 per troy ounce, contrasting with stock market performance [2] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include global trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and the performance of AI-related tech stocks [3] - The introduction of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2004 has significantly increased gold prices, with North American gold ETFs holding nearly $200 billion and international ETFs accounting for an additional $175 billion [4] - The emergence of tokenized gold stablecoins is expected to further elevate gold prices as they are pegged to gold reserves [6] Group 3: Long-term Gold Investment Considerations - Despite its recent performance, gold is not considered a reliable long-term hedge against inflation due to its high volatility compared to the low volatility of inflation [7] - Historical data shows that gold can experience prolonged periods of price decline, which may lead to losses for investors attempting to outpace inflation [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin was expected to double in value in 2025 but is currently down for the year, having fallen below both $100,000 and $90,000 price levels, raising concerns about a potential steeper decline [1] Short-term Investment Perspective - Gold has increased by 55% this year, outperforming Bitcoin, which is down 6% [2] - The argument that Bitcoin should track the price of gold is weakened as Bitcoin is declining while gold is rising, suggesting that investors may prefer gold over Bitcoin [2][3] Long-term Investment Perspective - For long-term investors, Bitcoin remains a viable investment due to its historical performance, having only three down years since 2010, with significant growth in other years [4] - Bitcoin is characterized by cyclical behavior, typically experiencing boom-and-bust cycles every four years, with a significant decline expected after substantial gains in 2023 and 2024 [5][6] - Despite recent price declines, Bitcoin still makes sense as a high upside investment for those with a five-year or longer time horizon [7]

Gold Market Analysis - Gold is seen as a viable alternative to the dollar, especially with the acceleration of de-dollarization driven by sanctions and concerns about US fiscal policy [2] - Mainstream investors are starting to participate in the gold market, with major Wall Street banks recommending gold exposure in portfolios [2] - Central banks are expected to continue buying gold, competing with private investors and driving prices higher [4] - The dollar is expected to lose value, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates into rising inflation, further driving demand for gold [4] - China's central bank is divesting from US dollars and treasuries, replacing them with gold reserves to establish an independent monetary system [4] - The debasement trade narrative is taking hold as people recognize the flawed nature of CPI and seek assets that retain value [4][5] - Gold investors have outperformed US stock market investors, especially when pricing stocks in gold [3][4] Bitcoin vs Gold - Bitcoin is considered a risk asset correlated with the NASDAQ, while gold is seen as a safe haven store of value [8] - There is a risk of money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs back into gold ETFs and gold stocks [1][8] - Bitcoin treasury companies may face downside risk and potential liquidation of their Bitcoin holdings [9] US Economic Policy - The Trump administration receives a failing grade (F) on economic policy due to massive government spending and deficits [13] - Tariffs are viewed as taxes that make American industry less competitive [14][15] - The speaker advocates for balanced budgets, debt restructuring, and deregulation to address fundamental economic problems [21][22][25]

Gold Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [1] - State Street Investment Management assigns a 75% probability of gold breaking above $4,000 per ounce, possibly this month or in Q4 [2] - The industry anticipates gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in the next 6 to 12 months, rather than falling to $3,000 [3] Factors Driving Gold Prices - A weaker US dollar, strong physical demand from China and central banks, and record ETF inflows in September, with over $10 billion in US-listed gold ETF inflows, have supported the gold market [5][6] - Gold benefits from an uncertainty premium due to risks emanating from Washington DC, inflation uncertainty, and Federal Reserve policy [7] Investment Strategies - ETFs, particularly GLD and GLDM from State Street's Spider ETF suite, offer low transaction costs, high liquidity, and transparency for gold exposure [9] - Gold mining stocks, while outperforming gold year-to-date, are tied to company management, cash flows, and capex costs, making them less suitable for pure gold exposure [10][11] Precious Metals Market - Silver has outperformed gold since mid-2025 due to tactical reasons, and could test $50 per ounce if gold surpasses $4,000 [13] - Gold is considered a safe haven hedge due to geopolitical and policy uncertainty, while silver remains tied to industrial activity [14][15]

Investment Trends - Gold ETFs in India experienced net inflows for the fourth consecutive month [1] Safe Haven Assets - Gold is presented as a primary safe haven asset for investors [1]