The S&P 500 closed up 0.46% yesterday to hit a new record of 6,909.79. The index is now up 17.48% for the year. With only the quiet Christmas week left before the end of 2025, it’s likely that investors will mark this down in their spreadsheets as a very good year.Unless, of course, they have a friend who bought gold at the beginning of 2025. The price of gold is up an astonishing 71% year to date, and is currently hovering around $4,514 per troy ounce. That friend is now laughing at you, foolish stock inv ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin was expected to double in value in 2025 but is currently down for the year, having fallen below both $100,000 and $90,000 price levels, raising concerns about a potential steeper decline [1] Short-term Investment Perspective - Gold has increased by 55% this year, outperforming Bitcoin, which is down 6% [2] - The argument that Bitcoin should track the price of gold is weakened as Bitcoin is declining while gold is rising, suggesting that investors may prefer gold over Bitcoin [2][3] Long-term Investment Perspective - For long-term investors, Bitcoin remains a viable investment due to its historical performance, having only three down years since 2010, with significant growth in other years [4] - Bitcoin is characterized by cyclical behavior, typically experiencing boom-and-bust cycles every four years, with a significant decline expected after substantial gains in 2023 and 2024 [5][6] - Despite recent price declines, Bitcoin still makes sense as a high upside investment for those with a five-year or longer time horizon [7]

Gold Market Analysis - Gold is seen as a viable alternative to the dollar, especially with the acceleration of de-dollarization driven by sanctions and concerns about US fiscal policy [2] - Mainstream investors are starting to participate in the gold market, with major Wall Street banks recommending gold exposure in portfolios [2] - Central banks are expected to continue buying gold, competing with private investors and driving prices higher [4] - The dollar is expected to lose value, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates into rising inflation, further driving demand for gold [4] - China's central bank is divesting from US dollars and treasuries, replacing them with gold reserves to establish an independent monetary system [4] - The debasement trade narrative is taking hold as people recognize the flawed nature of CPI and seek assets that retain value [4][5] - Gold investors have outperformed US stock market investors, especially when pricing stocks in gold [3][4] Bitcoin vs Gold - Bitcoin is considered a risk asset correlated with the NASDAQ, while gold is seen as a safe haven store of value [8] - There is a risk of money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs back into gold ETFs and gold stocks [1][8] - Bitcoin treasury companies may face downside risk and potential liquidation of their Bitcoin holdings [9] US Economic Policy - The Trump administration receives a failing grade (F) on economic policy due to massive government spending and deficits [13] - Tariffs are viewed as taxes that make American industry less competitive [14][15] - The speaker advocates for balanced budgets, debt restructuring, and deregulation to address fundamental economic problems [21][22][25]

Gold Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [1] - State Street Investment Management assigns a 75% probability of gold breaking above $4,000 per ounce, possibly this month or in Q4 [2] - The industry anticipates gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in the next 6 to 12 months, rather than falling to $3,000 [3] Factors Driving Gold Prices - A weaker US dollar, strong physical demand from China and central banks, and record ETF inflows in September, with over $10 billion in US-listed gold ETF inflows, have supported the gold market [5][6] - Gold benefits from an uncertainty premium due to risks emanating from Washington DC, inflation uncertainty, and Federal Reserve policy [7] Investment Strategies - ETFs, particularly GLD and GLDM from State Street's Spider ETF suite, offer low transaction costs, high liquidity, and transparency for gold exposure [9] - Gold mining stocks, while outperforming gold year-to-date, are tied to company management, cash flows, and capex costs, making them less suitable for pure gold exposure [10][11] Precious Metals Market - Silver has outperformed gold since mid-2025 due to tactical reasons, and could test $50 per ounce if gold surpasses $4,000 [13] - Gold is considered a safe haven hedge due to geopolitical and policy uncertainty, while silver remains tied to industrial activity [14][15]

Investment Trends - Gold ETFs in India experienced net inflows for the fourth consecutive month [1] Safe Haven Assets - Gold is presented as a primary safe haven asset for investors [1]