Since I last put out a buy recommendation on the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF ( EWU ) in late 2023 , it has returned over 50% in total return terms. This has come despite the ongoing deteriorationI am a full-time investor and owner of Icon Economics - a macro research company focussed on providing contrarian investment ideas across FX, Equities, and Fixed Income based on Austrian economic theory. Formerly Head of Financial Markets at Fitch Solutions, I have 15 years of experience investing and analysing ...

Core Insights - The iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) has achieved over 50% total return since the last buy recommendation in late 2023, despite ongoing economic challenges [1] Group 1: Performance Analysis - The ETF's significant return highlights its resilience in a deteriorating economic environment [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analysis is provided by a full-time investor and owner of Icon Economics, a macro research company focused on contrarian investment ideas based on Austrian economic theory [1]

Economic Overview - The U.K. economy experienced volatility in early 2025 but has shown an upward trend since April, with the FTSE 100 up approximately 12% year to date and 5.2% from July to September 24, although it remained flat in September [1] - Following stronger-than-expected growth in the first half of 2025, S&P Global raised the U.K.'s growth projections for the year to 1.2% from 0.9%, with a further expected growth of 1.3% next year [2] Economic Challenges - High unemployment and inflation at 3.8% year on year in August are negatively impacting the U.K.'s economic outlook, with the flash PMI for September indicating a decline in business activity to 51.0, a four-month low [3] - The PMI survey highlighted slowing growth, falling trade, declining business confidence, and continued job losses [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The PMI's composite selling prices index suggests that inflation may begin to ease from the current 3.8%, with September's selling price index being the second lowest in 11 months [4] - S&P Global anticipates that the Bank of England (BoE) may adopt a more dovish approach, with expectations of two rate cuts over the next year, likely waiting until the first half of 2026 for further cuts [5] Investment Opportunities - The U.K. government secured £150 billion in U.S. investment through the "Tech Prosperity Deal," aiming to create 7,600 jobs and enhance cooperation in key sectors like AI and quantum computing [7][8] - Major contributions include £90 billion from Blackstone over the next decade, £5 billion from Google for data center expansion, and $30 billion (£22 billion) from Microsoft for AI infrastructure [9][10] ETFs to Consider - iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF has an asset base of $2.83 billion, a dividend yield of 3.72%, and has gained 4.29% over the past month and 15.49% over the past year [14][15] - Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF has an asset base of $837.9 million, a dividend yield of 3.48%, and has gained 3.41% over the past month and 16.69% over the past year [16][17] - First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund has an asset base of $71.6 million, a dividend yield of 3.35%, and has gained 3.44% over the past month and 20.35% over the past year [18][19] - iShares MSCI United Kingdom Small-Cap ETF has an asset base of $40.7 million, a dividend yield of 3.78%, and has gained 0.71% over the past month and 7.54% over the past year [20][21]

Economic Overview - The UK economy experienced volatility in early 2025, with the FTSE 100 gaining approximately 7.4% from January but then falling about 13% by early April, before rebounding with a gain of around 15% [1] - The British economy's growth in the first quarter of 2025 exceeded expectations, primarily driven by the services sector [1] Trade Agreements and Economic Outlook - Recent trade agreements with India, the United States, and the EU are expected to positively impact the UK's growth outlook [2] - Rising uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies and fears of an economic slowdown have led investors to focus more on alternative markets like the UK [2] AI Sector Development - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praised the UK economy, describing it as being in a "goldilocks situation" [3] - Huang announced plans to increase investment in the UK's AI industry, highlighting the country's ambition to become a global leader in AI [4] - Prime Minister Keir Starmer introduced a strategy to enhance the UK's AI sector, including easing regulations for data centers and increasing computing capacity twentyfold by 2030 [5] - Huang's comments are seen as a significant endorsement of the UK's AI ecosystem, which could attract more startups [6] Government Spending and Economic Resilience - The UK economy has shown resilience amid global uncertainty, with a proposed $2.7 trillion spending plan from British finance minister Rachel Reeves further igniting investor interest [7] - Projections from the IMF indicate that the UK's growth is expected to slightly outpace the Eurozone, although it will lag behind the United States and Canada [8] Investment Opportunities - Investors can consider increasing their exposure to the UK through ETFs such as iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU), Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (FLGB), First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund (FKU), and iShares MSCI United Kingdom Small-Cap ETF (EWUS) [9] - EWU is noted for its liquidity with an average trading volume of about 1.38 million shares and an asset base of $3.09 billion, making it suitable for active trading strategies [10] - EWUS has shown strong performance, gaining 8.55% over the past month and 14.62% over the past three months [11]