4 January 2026 | 7:20PM HKT Equity Research Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. (300124.SZ): Dec IA orders improved to 30%+ yoy growth with full year tracking in line with guidance, GSe. Inovance disclosed industrial automation (IA) segment orders at 30%+ yoy in Dec 2025 (vs. 20+% yoy in Nov 2025), with most end markets trending well, implying ~+10% mom per GSe. Thanks to the strong Dec 2025 order trend, implied 4Q25 orders likely delivered 20%+ yoy growth, vs our IA revenue forecast of +17% yoy. Note that Nov ...

Summary of Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. (300124.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. - **Stock Code**: 300124.SZ - **Industry**: Industrial Automation Key Points Order Growth - Inovance reported a year-over-year (yoy) growth in industrial automation (IA) segment orders of over 20% in November 2025, compared to over 10% in October 2025, indicating a strong upward trend [1][7] - Month-over-month (mom) growth is estimated at approximately 19% for November 2025, compared to around 10% in November 2024 [1] Market Segments Driving Growth - The growth in orders is attributed to strong performance in various end-markets, including: - Port and logistics equipment - Smartphones - Consumer electronics - Lithium batteries - Semiconductors - Automotive equipment - Air compressors [1] Management Guidance - Management expects the IA segment growth to maintain around 20% yoy into the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026, with Goldman Sachs estimates of 19% and 17% growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] Competitive Landscape - The company noted that competition in terms of pricing is less intense than the previous year, allowing it to anticipate outperforming the industry trend by 10-20 percentage points [2] Comparison with Peers - Haitian International (1882.HK) reported flat overall orders yoy in November, with a low single-digit percentage increase in domestic orders offset by a decrease in overseas orders, indicating a weaker performance compared to Inovance [3][9] Investment Thesis - Inovance is viewed as a domestic leader in industrial automation with several growth opportunities: - Strong market position in key products like inverters and servos, which are ranked No.1 in China - Potential for market share gains in programmable logic controllers (PLC) - Growth in electric vehicle (EV) components - Development in digitalization and IoT solutions [16][18] Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month price target is set at Rmb82.10, based on a 35x P/E ratio for 2026 estimates, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current price of Rmb70.66 [20] Risks - Key risks include: - Slower-than-expected market share gains in industrial automation - Weaker-than-expected margin trends - Delays in the ramp-up of the EV component segment - General slowdown in manufacturing capital expenditure and automation demand [19] Financial Metrics - Projected revenue growth: - 2025: Rmb45,493.4 million - 2026: Rmb52,707.1 million - 2027: Rmb57,461.2 million [20] Conclusion - Inovance's strong order growth, competitive positioning, and growth potential in various markets make it an attractive investment opportunity, despite the risks associated with market dynamics and competition [18][19]

Summary of BorgWarner Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BorgWarner - **Industry**: Automotive technology, focusing on both legacy combustion technologies and electric vehicle (EV) products Key Priorities and Strategies - **Financial Performance**: The company aims to drive financial performance by launching new business globally, focusing on both combustion and EV products [2][3] - **RFQ Flow**: There has been a significant increase in Request for Quotations (RFQs) compared to the previous year, with the company winning a fair share across its portfolio, including turbochargers, EGR systems, inverters, and complete drive systems [2][5] - **Growth Expectations**: Anticipated growth is expected to materialize around 2027-2028, with a balanced approach to capital allocation, including shareholder returns and potential inorganic investments [3][14] Market Dynamics - **Geographical Insights**: - **China**: Strong growth in e-products, with a significant portion of combustion programs also present. The company has won numerous awards in this market [5][6][25] - **Europe**: A balanced focus on EVs, advanced hybrids, and combustion technologies, with a slower short-term growth in EVs [5][6] - **North America**: The market is currently facing supply chain issues, particularly with a North American truckmaker, impacting production [9][10] Financial Performance - **Earnings Growth**: The company is focused on growing earnings per share (EPS) and free cash flow, with a target to continue this trend into 2026 and 2027 [14][18] - **Margin Expansion**: Despite flat sales, the company has managed to expand operating margins by 30 basis points year-to-date through cost controls and productivity improvements [16][17] - **Cash Flow**: The company generated $900 million in free cash flow and is committed to returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [18][50] Challenges and Risks - **Supply Chain Issues**: Ongoing challenges with aluminum supply and semiconductor chips have been noted, but the company has not shut down any customers and is managing these disruptions [9][10] - **Tariffs**: The company has been managing tariff impacts, with expectations for recovery in the fourth quarter as agreements with customers cover about 80% of tariff exposure [19][50] Technological Advancements - **AI and Machine Learning**: The company is exploring the use of AI tools for quality improvement and cost reduction, with positive results from pilot programs [20][21] - **E-Products Growth**: Approximately 50% of light vehicle e-product sales are in China, with a 27% increase in sales year-over-year [25][28] M&A Strategy - **Inorganic Growth**: The company is open to both larger acquisitions and smaller tuck-in deals that align with its core competencies in rotating mechanics, electrics, and system engineering [45][48] - **Valuation Discipline**: A disciplined approach to valuation is emphasized, with a focus on ensuring that any inorganic investment drives earnings growth [47][50] Conclusion BorgWarner is strategically positioned to leverage its diverse portfolio in both combustion and electric vehicle technologies, with a strong focus on financial performance, market expansion, and technological innovation. The company is navigating current challenges while preparing for future growth opportunities, particularly in the rapidly evolving automotive landscape.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported non-GAAP revenues of $340 million for Q3 2025, representing a 21% increase quarter over quarter and a 44% year-over-year growth [16][5] - Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 18.8% in Q3 from 13.1% in Q2, primarily due to higher revenue and increased utilization of operational costs [16][18] - Non-GAAP operating loss decreased to $23.8 million in Q3 from $48.3 million in Q2, indicating significant progress in the turnaround plan [18] - The company achieved positive free cash flow of approximately $23 million in Q3 and expects to maintain this trend in Q4 and for the full year [20][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. revenues reached $203 million in Q3, up 10% quarter over quarter, accounting for 60% of total revenues [16] - European revenues were $101 million, up 55% quarter over quarter and 21% year over year, indicating strong recovery in that market [11][16] - International markets saw revenues of $36 million, down 8% quarter over quarter, representing 10% of total revenues [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company regained the number one residential inverter market share position in the U.S. as reported by Wood Mackenzie, marking a significant recovery since Q3 2021 [9] - In Europe, the majority of distribution partners have normalized inventory levels, contributing to a 45% quarter-over-quarter increase in EU revenues [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence initiatives, including the implementation of a single SKU framework to simplify manufacturing and logistics [6][21] - The strategic partnership with Infineon aims to advance the solid-state transformer platform for future data centers, positioning the company for growth in the data center market [14][34] - The company plans to ramp up U.S. manufacturing, having exported its first U.S.-manufactured residential products to Australia and expecting to ship to additional markets soon [13][90] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's trajectory, highlighting the strong financial performance and market share gains as evidence of a successful turnaround [5][14] - The company anticipates a seasonal decline in Q1 2026 revenues but does not expect significant pull forward of revenue due to safe harboring or the 25D rush [30][66] - Management noted that the U.S. residential market is expected to undergo a significant shift, with TPOs gaining market share as the 25D incentive ends [66] Other Important Information - The company plans to discontinue the megawatt shipped metric starting in Q4, instead providing the number of inverters, optimizers, and megawatt hours of batteries recognized as revenue [21][22] - The company is committed to generating positive free cash flow for the full year of 2025, which will support growth plans heading into 2026 [20][8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insights on revenue growth for 2026 and free cash flow expectations? - Management refrained from providing guidance for 2026 but noted that Q1 typically sees a 10% decline compared to Q4 due to seasonality [30] Question: What is the timeline for commercialization of the Infineon partnership? - Management indicated that the 800-volt DC architecture is expected to start in 2027, with ongoing discussions in the ecosystem showing positive feedback [35] Question: How is the company addressing tariff impacts? - The company reported a net impact from incremental tariffs of 2% in Q3 and expects similar impacts in Q4, while focusing on diversifying supply sources [60] Question: What is the outlook for CNI demand and the company's manufacturing capabilities? - Management expressed confidence in capturing additional market share in the CNI segment, highlighting the company's unique position to provide compliant products [111]

Summary of Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. (300124.SZ) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. - **Industry**: Industrial Automation and Electric Vehicle (EV) Components Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Results**: - Revenue: Rmb11,153 million (+21% YoY) - Gross Profit: Rmb3,068 million (+12% YoY) - EBIT: Rmb1,061 million (+7% YoY) - Net Profit: Rmb1,286 million (+4% YoY) - Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 28% (-2pp YoY) - Operating Profit Margin (OPM): 10% (-1pp YoY) - Net Profit Margin (NPM): 12% (-2pp YoY) - Slight miss compared to expectations due to EV segment performance and a one-off subsidy of Rmb136 million in the previous year [1][2][3] Industry Performance - **Industrial Automation (IA)**: - Revenue growth of 27% YoY in 3Q25, reaching Rmb4.3 billion - Supported by recovery in end-markets such as textiles, logistics, and shipbuilding - Indirect export revenue contribution increased by over 50% YoY, accounting for approximately 7% of the IA segment [2][3] - **EV Components**: - Revenue growth of 22% YoY in 3Q25, with a full-year growth target of 30% YoY despite a slowdown in top customer Li Auto's sales [2][12][14] Strategic Developments - **New Business Groups**: - Inovance has established new groups for Smart Robotics and Smart Energy Management, indicating a strategic shift towards advanced technologies [16][18] - **Smart Robotics**: - Launched humanoid robot products and received positive feedback from initial customers, focusing on lightweight and precise components [16][17] - **Smart Energy Management**: - Acknowledges competitive challenges in the domestic energy storage space but aims to leverage strengths in power electronics and grid-forming systems [18][19] Financial Outlook - **Growth Projections**: - Management expects growth to moderate in 4Q25 and 2026, forecasting around 20% YoY growth for IA segment in 2025E [10][24] - **Expense Management**: - SG&A and R&D expenses are guided to be around 15-16% of sales, focusing on long-term growth through strategic investments [22] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - Slower-than-expected market share gains in industrial automation - Weaker margin trends - Slower ramp-up in the EV component segment - General slowdown in manufacturing capex and automation demand [23][26] Valuation and Investment Rating - **Price Target**: Rmb82.1, based on a 35X 2026E PE - **Investment Rating**: Buy, with shares viewed as attractive given solid long-term growth prospects [26][27] Conclusion - Inovance is positioned well within the industrial automation sector, with strong growth in both IA and EV components, despite facing challenges in the EV market. The establishment of new business groups and a focus on digitalization and robotics indicate a forward-looking strategy aimed at maintaining competitive advantages and exploring new market opportunities [24][26]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall revenue for the first three quarters reached CNY 31.7 billion, representing a 25% year-on-year increase [17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 4.3 billion, up 27% year-on-year [19] - Gross margin decreased to 29.27%, down by one percentage point due to changes in product structure [21] - R&D expenses increased by 36% year-on-year, totaling CNY 3 billion, accounting for 9.5% of revenue [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Industrial automation revenue for the first three quarters was CNY 13.1 billion, with a 20% growth [32] - New Energy Vehicles (NEV) revenue reached CNY 14.4 billion, a 39% increase year-on-year [33] - Intelligent Elevator revenue remained flat at CNY 3.6 billion [35] - In Q3, industrial automation revenue was CNY 4.3 billion, growing by 25% year-on-year, while NEV revenue was CNY 5.3 billion, a 22% growth [33][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a recovery in most downstream industries, with 30+ sectors experiencing positive growth in Q3 [49] - The automotive equipment sector saw significant market share gains, primarily from overseas competitors [51] - The overseas revenue for Innovance Automotive grew by 50% from January to September [80] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, as the overall size of the overseas business is two to three times larger than that of China [7] - Innovance is positioning its dual key businesses—industrial automation and innovative automotive—as "golden tracks" for future growth [6] - The company is restructuring to form new business units for intelligent robots and digital energy management to capture emerging opportunities [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining growth momentum despite competitive pressures, particularly in the automotive sector [26] - The company anticipates that the demand for intelligent vehicles will continue to rise, driven by electrification and technological advancements [92] - Management acknowledged challenges in the domestic market due to price wars but remains optimistic about overseas expansion and new product developments [76][90] Other Important Information - The company is actively investing in R&D to enhance product offerings, particularly in intelligent robotics and digital energy management [22][74] - The establishment of a global business group marks a significant step in the company's international expansion strategy [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Future trends in the manufacturing industry and order placements - Management noted a recovery in Q3 with positive growth in most industries, indicating a rebound in manufacturing demand [49][50] Question: Market share growth and competition - The company is gaining market share primarily from overseas competitors, particularly in automotive and semiconductor sectors [51][52] Question: Overseas business investments and strategies - Management highlighted the importance of local hiring and R&D investments to support overseas expansion [55][56] Question: Humanoid robot business strategy - The company is focusing on core components for humanoid robots while exploring full robot solutions, with positive feedback from potential customers [68][69] Question: Digital energy management strategy - The company is shifting focus from energy storage to broader digital energy management solutions, aligning with market trends [75][76] Question: NEV business outlook - Despite a slowdown in Q3, management remains confident in achieving a 30% year-on-year revenue growth target for the NEV business [79][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased to $70 million from $67.5 million, with a profit of $3.12 million, up from $2.42 million in the prior quarter [10][41] - Operating income reached $3.1 million, representing 4.5% of revenue, with a target of 10% deemed achievable [9][10] - Cash balance decreased to $4 million from $10-11 million due to large payments on convertible ventures [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of Sunder is expected to contribute to revenue growth, although initial revenue from Sunder will be limited as their sales costs are high [13][14] - The company is integrating Sunder's sales force, which has doubled the bookings rate, indicating strong future revenue potential [15][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is now operating in 45 states, up from 22, following the acquisition of Sunder, which has expanded its dealer network significantly [36][37] - The bookings rate has increased significantly, with the first three weeks of Q1 showing 120% of plan, excluding Sunder's contributions [37] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for consistent profitable growth, targeting $300 million in revenue by 2025 and $1 billion by 2028, with a focus on internal growth and acquisitions [43][44] - The strategy includes enhancing technology partnerships, particularly with Enphase for battery solutions, and improving operational efficiency [42][46] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving a gross margin of 38% and a 10% profit margin at a billion-dollar revenue scale [54][55] - The company is optimistic about the future, with plans to introduce advanced technology and software-controlled solar systems [46][49] Other Important Information - The company has signed a joint development agreement with REC, a major panel supplier, to enhance its product offerings [41] - The integration of Sunder is progressing well, with a focus on maintaining their successful sales practices [38][39] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on the 200,000 battery opportunity with Enphase - The Enphase battery is the only compatible option for future electronic systems, and the opportunity is significant but not fully disclosed [51][52] Question: Inquiry about the 2028 goal for $1 billion revenue and gross margin expectations - The gross margin is expected to be around 38%, with a potential for 10% profit margin at that revenue level [54][55] Question: Changes to break-even revenue level post-acquisition - The break-even revenue level is expected to remain defensible in the mid-$60 million range [61][62] Question: Duration of the battery contract and revenue potential - The battery opportunity is significant, with an average battery cost of around $10,000, and the potential for substantial ROI through grid-tied battery systems [63][64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased to $70 million from $67.5 million, with a profit of $3.12 million, up from $2.42 million in the prior quarter [10][12][44] - Gross margin is reported at approximately 38%, with expectations to achieve a 10% operating income margin in the future [55][57] - Cash balance decreased to $4 million due to large payments on convertible ventures [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of Sunder is expected to contribute to revenue growth, with initial revenue from Sunder anticipated to be minimal in the first quarter post-acquisition [13][14] - The company aims to integrate Sunder's sales force, which has doubled the bookings rate, enhancing overall sales capabilities [35][39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has expanded its operational footprint from 22 to 45 states due to the Sunder acquisition, significantly increasing its dealer network from 881 to 1,744 contractors [35][38] - The market capitalization is currently low compared to peers, with a price-to-sales ratio below 1, indicating potential for growth as investor confidence increases [30][32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on achieving consistent profitable growth, targeting $300 million in revenue by 2025 and $1 billion by 2028, with a strategy that includes both internal growth and acquisitions [46][47] - The company plans to enhance its technology offerings in collaboration with partners like Enphase and REC, aiming to introduce advanced solar technology and software-controlled systems [48][49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future revenue growth, particularly in Q1, with a minimum revenue forecast of $2 million [15][56] - The company is addressing challenges in the solar market, including regulatory impacts and competition, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining a lean operational structure [6][60] Other Important Information - The company has signed a joint development agreement with REC, a leading panel supplier, to enhance its product offerings [44] - The company is also focusing on battery sales, with a significant opportunity identified through its partnership with Enphase [53][62] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on the 200,000 battery opportunity with Enphase - The Enphase battery is the only compatible option for future electronic systems, and the opportunity is part of an existing group [53][54] Question: Expectations for gross margin and earnings per share at $1 billion revenue - The gross margin is expected to be around 38%, with a goal of achieving a 10% profit margin at that scale [55][57] Question: Changes to break-even revenue level post-acquisition - The break-even revenue level is expected to remain defensible in the mid-$60 million range [60] Question: Duration of the battery contract and revenue potential - The opportunity is for 200,000 batteries, with an average price of $10,000 per battery, indicating significant revenue potential [61][62]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened on October 10, 2025, with major indexes showing modest gains despite an ongoing government shutdown, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.2%, and both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 increasing by 0.1% [1][2] - The slight upward movement indicates resilience among investors, even as the government shutdown enters its tenth day, following a retreat from record highs earlier in the week [2] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The government shutdown is causing delays in crucial economic data releases, particularly the September consumer price index (CPI) report, which is essential for calculating Social Security payments [3] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy committee meeting on October 28-29 is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut due to signs of a weakening labor market [4] - The minutes from the September FOMC meeting revealed significant internal divisions among policymakers regarding the economic outlook and interest rate paths [4] Corporate Earnings and Stock Movements - Applied Digital (APLD) shares surged nearly 25% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue and finalizing a lease agreement for additional capacity [5] - Intel (INTC) saw an increase in stock price after TD Cowen raised its price target from $20 to $35, reflecting optimism in its AI and data center strategies [5] - Nvidia (NVDA) reached a new all-time high with a market capitalization of approximately $4.7 trillion, gaining 4% over the prior two sessions [5] - Qualcomm (QCOM) shares slipped 1% following an antitrust probe initiated by Chinese regulators [5] - Levi Strauss (LEVI) shares dropped nearly 7% despite raising its annual earnings outlook, as the revised midpoint fell below analyst estimates [5] Other Corporate Developments - Stellantis (STLA) estimated a 13% increase in third-quarter shipments, driven by a strong rebound in North America [9] - USANA Health Sciences (USNA) tumbled 13% after projecting lower full-year earnings than forecast [9] - BASF entered into a binding agreement for its automotive coatings businesses with an enterprise value of €7.7 billion, retaining a 40% equity stake [9] - DENSO CORPORATION announced new electrification products aimed at improving energy efficiency for electric vehicles [9] - Several companies were highlighted as "Strong Buy" stocks by Zacks, including Micron Technology (MU) and MongoDB (MDB) [9]

Summary of Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. (300124.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. - **Stock Code**: 300124.SZ - **Industry**: Industrial Automation Key Points Orders and Growth - Inovance's industrial automation (IA) segment orders grew by over 30% year-over-year (yoy) in September 2025, compared to a growth of 20-30% yoy in August 2025 [1][9] - For the third quarter of 2025, IA orders are expected to grow approximately 25% yoy, significantly outperforming the broader China manufacturing fixed asset investment (FAI), which saw a decline of 0.2% and 2.0% yoy in July and August respectively [1][2] - Key end-markets showing solid growth include logistics equipment, semiconductors, wind power, metallurgy, lithium batteries, woodworking, construction machinery, machine tools, and healthcare equipment [1] Revenue and Income Forecast - Revenue and net income are forecasted to grow by 23% and 13% yoy respectively in 3Q25, assuming a 20% yoy growth for the IA segment sales and a 30% yoy growth for EV components revenue [2] - The elevator controls segment is expected to show flat growth, contrasting with a 3% yoy decline in domestic elevator production during July and August 2025 [2] Margin Expectations - Margins are expected to moderate, with gross profit margin (GPM) decreasing by 0.6 percentage points and net profit margin (NPM) decreasing by 1.0 percentage point yoy in 3Q25, primarily due to a change in revenue mix with a higher proportion of EV components sales [2] Competitive Position and Market Outlook - Inovance is positioned as a domestic leader in industrial automation, with significant opportunities for growth in overseas markets and potential market share gains in small and large PLCs [18] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing domestic substitution, breakthroughs in new end-industries, and a focus on top customers amid increasing consolidation [1][18] Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected market share gains in industrial automation, weaker margin trends, slower ramp-up in the EV component segment, and a general slowdown in manufacturing capital expenditure and automation demand [20][21] Valuation - The 12-month price target for Inovance is set at Rmb82.50, based on a 35x P/E ratio for 2026 estimates [20] - Current share price is Rmb83.82, indicating a downside potential of 1.6% [22] Additional Insights - The company’s competitive advantages include industry-leading R&D effectiveness and a comprehensive product portfolio that enhances customer switching costs [18] - The growth outlook remains strong, supported by the company's strategic focus on digitalization and IoT solutions [18] Conclusion Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. is experiencing robust growth in its industrial automation segment, with significant opportunities for future expansion. However, potential risks and margin pressures should be monitored closely as the company navigates a competitive landscape.