Core Viewpoints - The main competitors in the new energy vehicle market over the next five years will still be fuel vehicles, with the core competitive point being the differentiated product matrix supply capability for models priced above 200,000 yuan, which currently has significant room for improvement in supply [2][3] - The market share of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan is expected to exceed 60% in the next 5-10 years, up from the current 30%. The leading brand in this price segment is likely to exceed a 25% market share, potentially surpassing 30%, indicating annual sales exceeding 3 million units [2][3] - The new energy vehicle market is awaiting its "iPhone 4 moment," where technology and blockbuster products mature, leading to a significant increase in market concentration [2][4] Market Analysis - In 2024, the domestic passenger car sales are projected to be approximately 22.6 million units, with fuel vehicles accounting for about 11.5 million units, representing a market share of around 51%. The sales of models priced above 200,000 yuan are estimated at about 6.6 million units, making up 30% of total sales, with fuel vehicles contributing approximately 4.2 million units [3][6] - The market share of fuel vehicles in the 200,000 yuan price range remains substantial, currently at 64%. Despite significant price reductions in the past year to maintain market share, the trend is set, and the market is awaiting the arrival of the "iPhone 4 moment" [3][4] iPhone 4 Moment - The "iPhone 4 moment" refers to two key turning points: the maturity of 3G technology, which allowed smartphones to surpass traditional computers in user experience, and the decline of traditional phone brands' flagship models, which led to a loss of cash flow for R&D and ultimately market exit. This parallels the potential decline in sales of fuel vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan [4][5] Price Segment Analysis - The market share of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan has increased from 9% in 2019 to 30% in 2023. It is anticipated that this segment will exceed 60% in the next five years, corresponding to sales of at least 12 million units domestically [6][7] - The brands and products in this price segment are crucial for generating sufficient profits to support R&D, branding, and market promotion, creating a flywheel effect. Additionally, this price segment attracts a broad customer base, enhancing brand momentum [6][7] Brand Market Share - In the segment of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan, the top six fuel vehicle brands hold a market share of approximately 55%, while the top four new energy brands account for about 26-27% [16][17] - The future market structure is expected to resemble the smartphone industry, where a few brands dominate the high-end market. The leading brand in the new energy vehicle segment could capture around 25% of the market share, with annual sales exceeding 3 million units if the overall passenger car sales reach 20 million [17][29] Sales Performance - The average monthly sales of models priced above 200,000 yuan that exceed 10,000 units are defined as "blockbuster products." Currently, only six major fuel vehicle brands and four new energy brands have this capability, with these models accounting for 65% of the overall sales in this price segment [18][19] - The performance of Li Auto is particularly notable, as achieving a market share of 25-30% in the SUV segment priced above 200,000 yuan would significantly enhance its market position before expanding into the sedan market [29][30]