Tesla heads into 2026 with momentum and major questions. After a 36% plunge in the first quarter, its worst stretch since 2022, the stock has climbed back to an all-time closing high, now up about 21% heading into the final days of 2025. That rebound is being driven by big bets on AI, robo taxes, and autonomy, even as EV sales slow and regulatory pressure builds.Now to break it all down, I spoke with Wedbush head of tech research, Dan Ies, who closely tracks Tesla. You've called 2026 a defining year for Tes ...

Dan loves tech. Dan, good to see you. Don't know where to start, so I'm going to start on Nvidia.Uh I mentioned at the top we're seeing uh the bulls return to Nvidia. Uh not in a big way, but I would say in a nice way. What's the play there.>> Look, I think the reality is China is going to reopen, you know, for Nvidia. And I think that's something that wasn't necessarily factored in fully. I think investors are realizing it's a big change in the bellway.And look s the reality is the there's one chip in the ...

Tesla shares are flattish after nearing an all-time closing high yesterday as Elon Musk says Tesla is now testing out driverless robo taxis and as Ford pulls back on its EV ambitions. Is Tesla pulling forward 2026 gains here. Or is there still plenty of juice left in the stock.Let's ask our trader Victoria Green is CIO of G Squared Private Wealth and a CNBC contributor. Dan Ies, I don't have to tell you. Victoria, very bullish, sees it hitting another trillion or two in market cap next year.What do you fore ...

[music] Hello and welcome to Market Domination Overtime. We're getting a fresh look at how traders are positioning now into year end with the new STAX report from Charles Schwab. The STAX index, which tracks the sentiment of retail investors, jumping to an 8month high in November.For more, we're bringing in now Joe Maza, head trading and derivative strategist at Charles Schwab. Joe, great to see you. So, let let's start right there, Joe.So, the stacks hitting an 8month high here. What does that suggest to y ...

Our next guest says that today's shareholder meeting will be critical in another way. It will remind investors of the growth opportunities ahead for the stock like we just said. So joining me now is Dan Levy, the senior research analyst over at Barclays covers Tesla.Dan, the conversation with Phil, he talked about some of the lofty goals that are out there. Is this a scenario where Tesla, if it does reach those goals, is a company that should be paying Elon Musk a trillion dollars or near that amount in com ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the shareholder vote on Elon Musk's pay package at Tesla, with a high probability of approval indicated by betting markets, while also highlighting the company's future growth potential driven by innovations like robo taxis and humanoid robots [1][2][4]. Group 1: Shareholder Vote and Compensation - The shareholder vote on Elon Musk's pay package is expected to be approved with over 90% probability according to betting markets, although there remains a 10% chance of rejection [2]. - The argument for Musk's compensation is based on the expectation of significant growth, specifically a 41% compound annual growth rate in EBITDA over the next decade, which would position Tesla uniquely in the market [4]. - Concerns from governance firms regarding the pay package are noted, but the perspective is that Musk's compensation is performance-based and aligned with shareholder interests [5][6]. Group 2: Future Growth Projections - Tesla's valuation is heavily influenced by the anticipated success of robo taxis, which accounts for 90% of the company's projected price target of $2600 by 2030 [7]. - The complexity of scaling humanoid robots is acknowledged, with current research ongoing to assess their potential impact on Tesla's valuation [8][9]. - Tesla is positioned advantageously in the robotics and AI sectors, being further along than many competitors in developing technologies related to robo taxis and energy storage [8]. Group 3: AI and Competitive Landscape - The discussion includes a comparison of AI advancements between the US and China, with the belief that the US currently holds an advantage, although China's rapid progress in open-source software is acknowledged [10][12]. - The shift in China's focus towards technology under President Xi Jinping is noted, indicating a strong commitment to advancing AI as a key project [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is seeking shareholder approval for a new compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk, which could potentially grant him nearly a trillion dollars in stock, amidst concerns from advisory firms recommending against it [1][3]. Group 1: Compensation Plan - The compensation plan is designed to incentivize Elon Musk to lead Tesla through a transformative phase focused on AI and robotics, including the development of Optimus and robo-taxis [4][15]. - The board believes this plan is in the best interest of shareholders, as it aims to deliver unprecedented value over the next decade [5][15]. - The performance plan stipulates that Musk will receive no salary or equity unless he meets specific operational and market cap milestones [6][12]. Group 2: Shareholder Concerns - Some advisory firms, such as ISS and Glass Lewis, have advised shareholders to vote against the compensation plan, arguing that Musk is holding shareholders hostage [3][8]. - The board acknowledges that many index funds follow the recommendations of these advisory firms, which they believe have made poor recommendations in the past [9]. Group 3: Future of Tesla - The board emphasizes that Tesla is at a critical inflection point, with significant opportunities ahead due to its focus on AI and unique capabilities [14][15]. - There is a belief that Tesla's market value is significantly tied to Musk's leadership and vision, making it difficult to estimate the company's worth without him [13][16].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's recent profit miss is attributed to significant investments in AI, which some believe is crucial for the company's future growth [1] Financial Performance - The stock is trading lower due to a profit miss, as it was priced to perfection, leading to expectations of disappointing results in upcoming quarters [2] - Sales improved year-over-year, but this was largely due to discounted pricing on Model S and Model Y vehicles [2] - Tesla's profitability concerns are heightened by the expiration of EV tax credits and the need to reduce costs while increasing delivery volumes [2][15] Market Position and Innovation - Investors view Tesla as a transformative tech company focused on innovation, including autonomous vehicles and energy storage [3] - The market capitalization of Tesla is approximately $1.5 trillion, significantly higher than GM's $64 billion, reflecting investor confidence in Tesla's innovation potential [7] - There are expectations for robo taxis to be operational in eight of the ten major metro regions by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval [12] Competitive Landscape - Tesla faces competition from companies like Waymo, which is reportedly ahead in the autonomous vehicle market [13] - Ongoing regulatory scrutiny regarding safety remains a concern for Tesla as it seeks to expand its autonomous vehicle capabilities [14][15] Research and Development - Tesla invests about 4% of its sales in research and development, which is critical for maintaining its competitive edge in innovation [15]

Financial Performance - Tesla's Q3 adjusted EPS is $0.50, versus consensus at $0.54 [1] - Tesla's Q3 revenue is $28.10 billion, beating the street's expectation of $26.36 billion [1] - Tesla's Q3 gross margins look better than expected at 18% versus an estimate at 7.2% [1][2] - Tesla's Q3 free cash flow is $3.99 billion, beating the estimate of $1.25 billion [2] Market Dynamics & Future Outlook - The market is concerned about EV demand in the post-EV tax credit world, especially in the US [3] - Analysts anticipate a decline in Q4 deliveries and total global deliveries for Tesla in 2026 due to the US tax credit expiration, mirroring the German market experience in 2024 [7][8] - Lower-priced Tesla models may attract some buyers, but they still require a higher upfront cost compared to mid-size SUVs like Honda CRV and Toyota Rav 4 [9][10][11][12] AI & Autonomous Driving - The most important chapter in Tesla's growth story is beginning with the AI era, starting with autonomous driving and robotics, with autonomous valuation potentially worth $1 trillion [14] - Morningstar estimates over half of Tesla's $250 fair value comes from full self-driving subscriptions, robo taxi, and Dojo [15] - Regulatory uncertainty in Europe and data export issues in China pose challenges to Tesla's robo taxi market leadership [16][17] - The key to robo taxi success is the software's functionality, safety, and ability to operate without a safety driver or geo-fenced area [19][20] Shareholder Meeting - Shareholders are expected to approve Musk's potential $8.5 trillion pay package, incentivizing him to grow Tesla's market cap and successfully roll out robo taxis, Optimus robots, and full self-driving software [23][24]

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of $26.27 billion, an increase of nearly $1 billion year-over-year, with adjusted EPS at $0.53 and EBITDA estimated at $3.78 billion [1] - A record of 497,000 electric vehicles (EVs) were sold in Q3, attributed to the expiration of the EV tax credit, which led to higher-than-expected sales [1] - The company is set to release cheaper versions of the Model Y and Model 3 in the next quarter, which is anticipated to further boost sales [2] Energy Products and AI Developments - Record deployments of energy products were noted, contributing positively to the company's high-margin business [2] - The company is shifting its AI training efforts to utilize Nvidia chips instead of its own Dojo supercomputer for robo-taxi developments [3] Market Performance in China - There are signs of improvement in Tesla's market performance in China, with positive production numbers from the Shanghai Gigafactory [4] - The new extended version of Model Y has gained popularity in China, indicating strong registration numbers [5] - The brand perception of the company in China is more favorable compared to the U.S., with Elon Musk viewed positively as an entrepreneur [5] - The Shanghai Gigafactory is noted as the most productive factory, supplying vehicles globally, which may provide a tailwind for the company [6]