Core Viewpoint - Tesla is experiencing a challenging quarter with declining revenues and auto unit sales, while competition in the EV market is intensifying [2][3] Financial Performance - Tesla reported its first year of declining revenues, down 3%, and auto unit sales decreased by 9%, with profits declining by 4% to 6% [2] - The energy division showed significant growth of 27%, generating $12.8 billion, which is a positive aspect for the company [3] Strategic Changes - Tesla is ending production of the Model S and Model X to focus on the development of Optimus robots, indicating a shift towards being recognized as a technology company [3][10] - The company plans to produce a new generation of vehicles (Gen 3) by the end of 2026, aiming for large-scale sales by 2027 [10] Valuation Concerns - Tesla's stock is trading at a high premium, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of nearly 290, significantly higher than competitors like Nvidia, which has a PE of 45 [9][12] - Concerns have been raised about the disconnect between Tesla's high valuation and its lack of earnings growth, leading to a downgrade of the stock to a sell rating [4][5] Capital Expenditure Guidance - Tesla's capital expenditure (capex) guidance for the year is projected to be well over $20 billion, significantly higher than the previous year's $8.5 billion and above market expectations of around $11 billion [7][8] Competitive Landscape - Increased competition from companies like Volkswagen, Hyundai, and BYD is impacting Tesla's market position, with BYD now holding the number one position in EV sales [2][3] - The competitive threats are mounting from both traditional automakers and new entrants in the robotics and autonomous driving sectors [14][15]

Market Overview - The market is starting slow but is expected to pick up pace throughout the day, particularly with large-cap tech earnings after the bell [1] - Mortgage applications data has come in soft, with a notable decline of 8.5% in overall applications, driven by rising mortgage rates [2][3] Mortgage Applications - The 10-year yield has fluctuated from 6.13% to 6.3% and back to 6.25% over the last 10 days, impacting 30-year mortgage rates which rose from 6.16% to 6.24% [2] - Refinances have seen a significant drop of 15.7%, indicating sensitivity to rising mortgage rates [2] Technology Sector - Positive news from Nvidia and China is expected to boost stocks like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom [3] - Memory stocks are also showing upward movement, contributing to a generally positive sentiment in the tech sector [4] Currency Impact - The US dollar is at four-year lows, which may benefit multinational companies by making US goods and services cheaper for foreign buyers [4][5] - Historical context shows that the dollar has traded lower in previous years, suggesting that a weaker dollar can have positive implications for exports [6][7] Earnings Reports - Major earnings reports from companies such as Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla, and IBM are anticipated, with Microsoft showing a rally leading into its report [9][10] - There are questions surrounding Meta Platforms' spending and Tesla's future beyond electric vehicles, including potential developments in full self-driving and other technologies [11][12]

For my question of the day, I'm sticking with my man Elon Musk. I really enjoyed his talk at Davos and found what he said on humanoid robots quite interesting. >> My prediction is there'll be there'll be more robots than people.Probably sometime next year, I'd say that by the by the end of next year, I I think uh would be selling humanoid robots uh to the public. A new Gartner report this week sheds light on what's coming on the humanoid front potentially through 2028. Uh less than 100 companies will progre ...

Market Overview - Natural gas prices surged 40% since Monday due to an impending winter storm [1] - The stock market experienced volatility, with the Dow losing 871 points on Tuesday, marking its worst day since October [2] - Following President Trump's comments about Greenland, market sentiment shifted positively after he stated he would not use force to obtain it, leading to a resurgence in buying momentum for stocks like Nvidia, AMD, and Tesla [3][4] Company Insights - Intel's stock has been negatively impacted by weak guidance and execution issues under CEO Lip Boutan, despite a previous 150% increase over the past year [5][6] - The company is facing supply constraints, with a depleted buffer inventory and a shift in wafer production towards servers not expected to resolve until late Q1 2026 [27][32] - Analysts suggest that while Intel's guidance was weak, it may be due to supply constraints rather than fundamental weaknesses, indicating potential for recovery [31][32] Earnings and Market Sentiment - The upcoming earnings season is anticipated to be positive, with expectations of 14% earnings growth for the S&P 500 [14] - There is a noted shift towards cyclicals and a broadening of earnings growth, supported by tax incentives for corporations [15] - Investor sentiment has been reset, with a reduction in complacency, which may lead to higher stock prices [4][14] Technology Sector Dynamics - Tesla's stock saw a 4% increase following announcements about robo-taxi operations in Austin and potential approvals in Europe and China [38] - The company is also exploring humanoid robots, with expectations of public sales by the end of next year [50][51] - Despite potential weak quarterly results, investor focus is shifting towards Tesla's long-term vision and technological advancements rather than short-term performance [39][42] Gold Market Trends - Gold prices are nearing $5,000 per ounce, driven by concerns over currency debasement and a shift in investment strategies among institutional and private investors [17][19] - The demand for gold remains strong, with private investors holding onto their positions amid market volatility [19][21]

Core Insights - 2026 is anticipated to be a significant year for Google's Waymo, with plans for expansion into new markets and increased ride-sharing capabilities [3][7]. Group 1: Waymo's Current Operations - Waymo is currently operating in major urban areas such as San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta, with a notable presence in these locations [2][4]. - As of the end of this year, Waymo has achieved 250,000 trips per week and aims to reach 1 million rides per week by the end of the next year, which would represent a fourfold increase [4][5]. Group 2: Expansion Plans - Waymo plans to expand its services to Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando by early 2026, and is also testing in cities like Detroit, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New York City, London, and Tokyo [3][4]. Group 3: Challenges and Comparisons - Waymo faces challenges such as the need to increase production of its vehicles, which include models like the Jaguar I-PACE and a Chinese model, and it lacks the production capacity of Tesla [6][7]. - In contrast, Tesla's robo-taxi service is currently limited to Austin and San Francisco, and it operates with safety drivers, indicating that Tesla may be lagging behind Waymo in the autonomous taxi space [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is entering 2026 with significant momentum and critical questions regarding its execution in autonomy and robotics, following a stock rebound of approximately 21% after a 36% decline in Q1 2025 [1][21]. Group 1: Autonomy and Robotics - 2026 is anticipated to be a defining year for Tesla, with key milestones including the deployment of robo taxis in 30 cities without safety drivers and significant expansion of geo-fenced areas [2][3]. - The production of Cyber Cabs is expected to commence around April-May 2026, which will be crucial in demonstrating Tesla's capabilities in the autonomous vehicle sector [4][19]. - Tesla possesses more real-world driving data than any competitor, which is expected to provide a competitive advantage in scaling operations across the U.S. [5][4]. Group 2: Investment and Market Potential - The potential market for autonomy is estimated to be worth a trillion dollars, with a bullish scenario suggesting it could reach three trillion by late 2026 [7][8]. - Investors are looking for tangible evidence of progress in autonomy and robotics, with a focus on city-by-city performance and regulatory developments [10][9]. - The valuation of Tesla's energy storage business is currently not reflected in its stock price, but it could play a significant role in future valuations, especially with the growing demand for data center power [17][18]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The bare case for Tesla includes not meeting targets for autonomous vehicle deployment, regulatory challenges, and delays in production timelines, which could undermine investor confidence [19][21]. - The success of Tesla's strategy hinges on execution in 2026, with a need to demonstrate progress in autonomy and robotics to maintain investor support [20][21].

AI & Tech Industry Trends - The AI revolution is significantly underestimated, with potential for substantial growth in the coming years [2][3] - US is ahead of China in tech for the first time in 30 years [3] - Enterprise adoption of AI is accelerating, with capex 50% higher than the beginning of the year [19] - 20% of vehicles are expected to be autonomous in the next 3-4 years [6] Company Specific Analysis - Nvidia is seen as fueling the AI revolution, with potential for numbers to be significantly underestimated, projecting a $250 stock price in a base case by the end of 2026 [2] - Tesla's autonomous robo-taxi initiatives are valued at $1 trillion conservatively, with a bull case of $3 trillion and a base case of $2 trillion [7] - Palantir is viewed as a disruptive force in the enterprise market, potentially becoming the next Salesforce or Oracle, with a trillion-dollar market cap expected in the next 2-3 years [13] - Adobe is facing pressure due to AI's impact on its business model and needs to adapt [16][17] Competitive Landscape - General Motors is in a better position than Ford in navigating the autonomous chapter [10][11] - Palantir poses a threat to traditional software companies like Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Workday [16]

Tesla shares are flattish after nearing an all-time closing high yesterday as Elon Musk says Tesla is now testing out driverless robo taxis and as Ford pulls back on its EV ambitions. Is Tesla pulling forward 2026 gains here. Or is there still plenty of juice left in the stock.Let's ask our trader Victoria Green is CIO of G Squared Private Wealth and a CNBC contributor. Dan Ies, I don't have to tell you. Victoria, very bullish, sees it hitting another trillion or two in market cap next year.What do you fore ...

分组1 - The STAX index from Charles Schwab indicates a bullish sentiment among retail investors, reaching an 8-month high, but remains below extreme levels seen in 2021 [1][2][3] - Only two out of eleven sectors experienced net buying, with consumer discretionary stocks seeing net sales, suggesting a rotation towards narrow leadership stocks like the MAG 7 [3][4] - Notable buying activity was observed in AI-heavy tech stocks such as Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla, particularly after a 20% pullback, indicating tactical trading strategies by clients [4][6][7] 分组2 - Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla from overweight to equal weight, citing valuation challenges despite raising the price target due to the inclusion of robotics in the stock evaluation [19][20] - The broader auto industry faces challenges, including potential losses in the EV sector due to the expiration of tax credits and rising vehicle prices, which could impact market dynamics [22][23] - The housing market may see a turnaround with expected interest rate cuts from the Fed, potentially lowering mortgage rates and aiding affordability for consumers [30][31][32] 分组3 - The CEO of Better.com highlighted that a quarter-point rate cut could save an average family about $1,000 annually on a $400,000 mortgage, emphasizing the importance of lower rates in the current economic climate [32][33] - Better.com operates as an AI-powered mortgage lender, significantly reducing costs compared to traditional lenders, which has led to rapid growth in their business [44][45] - The average customer of Better.com is described as a tech-savvy individual seeking affordable mortgage options, contrasting with traditional mortgage clients [46][49]

Our next guest says that today's shareholder meeting will be critical in another way. It will remind investors of the growth opportunities ahead for the stock like we just said. So joining me now is Dan Levy, the senior research analyst over at Barclays covers Tesla.Dan, the conversation with Phil, he talked about some of the lofty goals that are out there. Is this a scenario where Tesla, if it does reach those goals, is a company that should be paying Elon Musk a trillion dollars or near that amount in com ...