Summary of Key Points from the Expert Call on China's Medical Imaging Equipment Market Industry Overview - The expert call focused on China's medical imaging equipment market, discussing procurement trends, market outlook for 2025 and beyond, competitive landscape, and geopolitical impacts [1][6] - The market size reached Rmb18.54 billion in Q325, reflecting a 55.02% year-over-year (YoY) increase and approximately 10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth [2][8] Market Growth and Trends - The YoY growth rate for the medical imaging equipment market decreased from 100.36% in the first five months of 2025 to 55.02% in Q325, but remained above the overall medical equipment market growth of 29.8% [2][7] - The expert anticipates a 10-15% YoY growth for the medical imaging equipment market in 2025 and 2026, driven by equipment renewal programs supported by Central government treasury bonds [2][18] Procurement Insights - Procurement in Q325 showed a significant drop compared to previous periods, with CT, MRI, ultrasound, DSA, and DR procurement values at Rmb4.84 billion, Rmb4.79 billion, Rmb4.33 billion, Rmb2.51 billion, and Rmb0.9 billion respectively [2][8] - The expert noted that county-level medical consortium volume-based procurement (VBP) accounted for a significant portion of procurement, particularly in CT [8][10] Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands held market shares of 39.76%, 39.41%, 43%, 12.9%, and 80.41% in CT, MRI, ultrasound, DSA, and DR respectively in Q325 [3][10] - Foreign companies regained market shares in several categories due to proactive participation in VBP, with GE Healthcare and Siemens Healthineers actively engaging in price competition [3][17] - The expert believes that the competitive landscape will not be significantly reshaped by geopolitical tensions in the short term, as top global companies will adapt their supply chains to meet local requirements [4][19] Geopolitical and Policy Impacts - The expert predicts that it may take 8-10 years for preferential policies for domestic products in government procurement to be fully implemented, allowing global companies time to adjust [4][11] - The impact of geopolitical events, such as the Section 232 investigation and EU's IPI restrictions, is expected to be limited for domestic manufacturers [4][19] Future Outlook and Risks - The expert expects the VBP market size for medical imaging equipment to remain below 20% this year, potentially reaching 20-30% in the next two years [15][18] - Risks identified for the medtech industry include larger-than-expected price reductions, weaker demand from equipment renewal programs, and geopolitical risks affecting supply chains [21][23] Conclusion - The expert call provided valuable insights into the current state and future outlook of China's medical imaging equipment market, highlighting growth opportunities and competitive dynamics while acknowledging potential risks and challenges [1][6][21]

Summary of Key Points from the Expert Call on China's Medical Imaging Equipment Market Industry Overview - The expert call focused on China's medical imaging equipment market, discussing procurement trends, market outlook for 2025 and beyond, competitive landscape, and geopolitical impacts [1][6] - The market size reached Rmb18.54 billion in Q325, reflecting a 55.02% year-over-year (YoY) increase and approximately 10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth [2][8] Market Growth and Trends - The YoY growth rate for the medical imaging equipment market decreased from 100.36% in the first five months of 2025 to 55.02% in Q325, but remained above the overall medical equipment market growth of 29.8% [2][7] - The expert anticipates a 10-15% YoY growth for the medical imaging equipment market in 2025 and 2026, driven by equipment renewal programs supported by Central government treasury bonds [2][18] Procurement Insights - Procurement in Q325 showed a significant drop compared to previous periods, with CT, MRI, ultrasound, DSA, and DR procurement values at Rmb4.84 billion, Rmb4.79 billion, Rmb4.33 billion, Rmb2.51 billion, and Rmb0.9 billion respectively [2][8] - The expert noted that county-level medical consortium volume-based procurement (VBP) accounted for a significant portion of procurement, particularly in CT [8][10] Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands held market shares of 39.76%, 39.41%, 43%, 12.9%, and 80.41% in CT, MRI, ultrasound, DSA, and DR respectively in Q325 [3][10] - Foreign companies regained market shares in several categories due to proactive participation in VBP, with GE Healthcare and Siemens Healthineers actively engaging in price competition [3][17] - The expert highlighted that ultrasound was the only category where domestic brand share increased, attributed mainly to Mindray's performance [3][10] Geopolitical and Policy Impacts - The expert believes that geopolitical tensions will not significantly reshape the competitive landscape in the short term, as it may take 8-10 years for preferential policies for domestic products to be fully implemented [4][19] - The impact of the Section 232 investigation and EU's IPI restrictions on domestic manufacturers is expected to be limited, as leading domestic companies have established production facilities in the US [19][20] Future Outlook and Risks - The expert expects the VBP market size for medical imaging equipment to remain below 20% this year, potentially reaching 20-30% in the next two years [15][18] - Risks identified for the medtech industry include larger-than-expected price reductions, weaker demand from equipment renewal programs, and geopolitical risks affecting supply chains [21][22][23] Financial Projections - The total amount of special treasury bonds to support medical equipment renewal is estimated at Rmb14.6 billion for 2024 and Rmb18.98 billion for 2025, with implementation expected in 2025 and 2026 [13][14] Conclusion - The expert call provided valuable insights into the current state and future prospects of China's medical imaging equipment market, highlighting growth opportunities, competitive dynamics, and potential risks that investors should consider [1][6][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Mindray, highlighting its strong market position and growth potential in the healthcare sector [92]. Core Insights - The procurement value of main medical devices in China showed a year-on-year growth rate of 49% in June 2025, although it fell short of previous expectations due to a 3% month-on-month decline driven by lower unit prices from Value-Based Procurement (VBP) policies [1]. - The report anticipates a decline in the trade-in stimulus effect for the second half of 2025, as applications for trade-in funding have decreased in recent months [1]. - The ultrasound segment has experienced significant price declines due to VBP, with CT scanners also seeing sharp price reductions [9][13]. - The market share of non-GPSU brands in CT scanners has increased during the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in brand dynamics within the industry [24]. Summary by Sections Procurement Trends - The total bidding value for nine main medical devices in China has shown fluctuations, with significant year-on-year growth in various segments, including a 62% increase for CT scanners in June 2025 compared to May 2025 [51]. - The report notes that 30% of ultrasound procurement volume is expected to be impacted by VBP by the end of 2025, with an average price cut of 50%-60% [22]. Company-Specific Insights - Mindray is positioned as a leading medtech device manufacturer in China, with 55% of its revenue coming from the domestic market. The company is expected to benefit from strong healthcare infrastructure development and increasing overseas revenue [92]. - United Imaging has expanded its presence globally and is witnessing a rebound in medical equipment procurement in China, supported by government initiatives [93]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that both domestic and multinational companies achieved notable year-on-year growth in June, indicating a competitive landscape in the medical device sector [74]. - The ongoing VBP policies are a key concern, affecting pricing and procurement strategies across various medical device categories [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Mindray is "Buy" with a target price set at Rmb330, based on a DCF-based SOTP model [16]. Core Insights - The medical equipment sector is experiencing a recovery, with tendering growth of 78% year-over-year in May 2025, indicating strong demand and fiscal stimulus effects [1]. - Mindray is highlighted as a top pick in the medical equipment sector, expecting to see quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2 2025 and both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year growth in Q3 2025 [1]. - The total intended medical equipment procurement since June 2024 amounts to Rmb31.5 billion, with Rmb12.9 billion already implemented, suggesting further recovery potential [2]. Summary by Sections Tendering Growth - Tendering amounts for key medical imaging products showed significant year-over-year growth: ultrasound (103%), MRI (107%), X-ray (108%), and PET/CT (186%) [3]. Company Performance - Mindray reported robust growth of 56% year-over-year in May 2025, while United Imaging experienced an 11% growth after a substantial surge in April [1]. Market Dynamics - The strong growth momentum in tendering is attributed to ongoing fiscal stimulus and the normalization of medical equipment procurement activities [1].