November 24, 2025 12:45 PM GMT M Idea China Consumer: Raw Materials Price Chartbook | Asia Pacific Raw Materials Price Movements (Oct-25) and Stock Implications In this month's summary of key raw material price trends and implications for relevant Hong Kong/China consumer stocks, we highlight the decline in milk powder prices, corn prices and hog/ pork/piglet prices, while metal prices saw an uptick. Implications for stocks: Yili (600887.SS, OW), Mengniu (2319.HK, OW): Similar to 2024, raw milk prices have ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese refining industry is at a critical juncture, transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement," necessitating a restructuring of industry structure, technological pathways, and market landscape [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The refining industry is facing intensified "involution" competition due to tightening market demand, with gasoline and diesel consumption showing a downward trend, leading to a "double decline" in production and consumption in the first half of 2025 [2] - Continuous capacity expansion is occurring, with refining capacity expected to reach approximately 955 million tons per year in 2024, operating at around 75% utilization [2] - The downstream chemical sector is also experiencing "involution," with a significant increase in the production capacity of olefins and aromatics, which has now reached a state of supply-demand balance [2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is identified as a key pathway for breaking through the challenges faced by the refining industry, with a shift from "fuel" to "materials" and from "low value" to "high value" [4] - There is a notable demand for high-performance materials, with a significant gap in the production of high-end polyolefins, necessitating a focus on differentiated competition and market research [4] - Recent technological advancements include the development of green low-carbon "oil conversion" technologies and the DMTO technology, which improves resource utilization efficiency and reduces energy consumption [5][6] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The refining industry is entering a critical transformation period, with growth rates in market and capacity expected to stabilize during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7] - The PX market is anticipated to recover due to tight supply, while the PTA-PET segment is expected to face long-term losses, necessitating adaptation to global economic changes [7] - In the polyester sector, total capacity is projected to remain at 85.28 million tons by 2025, with a gradual stabilization in PET demand growth despite some industrial transfer to Southeast Asia and the Middle East [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential winners of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, focusing on the significance of scientific discoveries and their applications in the medical field, particularly highlighting the discovery of GLP-1 as a strong candidate for the award in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Trends - The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has historically awarded discoveries that are significant in both scientific and practical applications, with a distribution ratio of approximately 3:2 between physiology and medicine since 2001 [1][2]. - The awarding pattern shows a tendency to recognize impactful medical discoveries every few years, with the last notable award in the metabolic research area occurring 40 years ago [6][7]. Group 2: GLP-1 Discovery - The discovery of GLP-1 is considered a major breakthrough in metabolic regulation, with an 85% probability of winning the Nobel Prize due to its significant scientific and practical implications [3][4]. - GLP-1-based drugs, such as semaglutide and tirzepatide, are projected to rank among the top ten global drug sales in 2024, showcasing their widespread application and importance in treating obesity [4][5]. - The recognition of GLP-1's importance has grown in recent years, and it has been a contender for major scientific awards, indicating its readiness for Nobel recognition [6][7]. Group 3: Potential Awardees - Key contributors to the discovery of GLP-1 include Jens Juul Holst and Joel Habener, both with a 100% probability of winning due to their foundational work in identifying and characterizing GLP-1 [8][10]. - Svetlana Mojsov, another significant contributor, has a 75% probability of winning, while Daniel Joshua Drucker and Lotte Knudsen have lower probabilities of 20% and 5%, respectively, due to their roles being more focused on later developments rather than the initial discovery [12][15][17]. Group 4: Other Potential Projects - Other projects, such as the development of fMRI and PET technologies, have a lower probability of winning (15%) due to their perceived lack of groundbreaking discovery elements compared to GLP-1 [19][21]. - Additional medical achievements, including Herceptin and Gleevec, are noted for their clinical significance but are considered less competitive against GLP-1 [22][23]. - Basic research achievements in physiology are deemed unlikely to win, with a probability of less than 1% due to the vast number of contributions in this area [24].

Group 1: Company Listings and Filings - Five companies submitted listing counseling reports for approval in the domestic market from September 15 to September 21 [2] - Benyuan Quantum Computing Technology (Hefei) Co., Ltd. focuses on quantum computing and has received a total of 9 rounds of financing since 2017, with a valuation of 7.1 billion [3][4] - Beijing Weina Star Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in satellite manufacturing and has successfully launched 27 satellites, with a valuation of 1 billion [5][6] - Shenzhen Car Cool Technology Co., Ltd. is a multifunctional automotive emergency power supply provider and has completed 5 rounds of financing since 2021 [7][9] - Qingdao Haishenlin Hair Products Group Co., Ltd. focuses on high-end wig production and has completed 4 rounds of financing since 2021 [10][11] - Zhejiang Weibang Sports Technology Group Co., Ltd. specializes in outdoor sports products and has submitted a listing counseling report [12] Group 2: Industry Trends - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a listing boom, with several unicorn companies entering the counseling or application stages for public offerings [7] - Three companies passed the counseling acceptance from September 11 to September 21, indicating a positive trend in the market [15][16] - Five companies had their listing counseling terminated during the same period, reflecting the dynamic nature of the market [22] Group 3: Company Profiles and Financing - Anshi Biotechnology Co., Ltd. focuses on targeted cancer drug development and has completed 4 rounds of financing since 2021 [16][17] - Guangdong Zhongsu New Materials Co., Ltd. specializes in modified engineering plastics and has undergone 2 rounds of financing in 2022 [18][19] - Zhuzhou Times Huaxin New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. is involved in the research and production of polymer materials and has completed 6 rounds of financing since 2019 [20][21]

Summary of Eastman Chemical Company FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE: EMN) - **Date of Conference**: September 10, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Current Business Conditions**: Consumer and customer confidence remains challenged due to economic factors and trade environment, reflected in reduced visibility in order books, which currently stand at a couple of weeks compared to a typical six weeks [2][4] - **Order Patterns**: Customers are purchasing smaller quantities more frequently, indicating a cautious approach to inventory management [2][4] Segment Performance - **Automotive**: Performing better than expected in Q3, similar to the first half of the year [3] - **Durables Market**: Lagging behind expectations, with slower momentum observed [3] - **Building and Construction**: Stable but at low levels, indicating a lack of growth [3] - **Chemical Intermediates**: Margins are slightly below expectations, with cost actions being taken to offset demand reductions [3][4] Financial Outlook - **Q3 Expectations**: Anticipated to be lower than approximately $1.25 billion due to low visibility and demand [4] - **Q4 Projections**: Expected to be slightly below Q3, with primary demand typically lower in Q4 [5] - **Cash Flow Target**: Aiming for $1 billion in operating cash flow for the year, with actions being taken to achieve this goal [6][13] Strategic Actions - **Cost Management**: Implementing cost actions to offset inflation and reduced demand, targeting a net benefit of $75 million [6][15] - **Inventory Management**: Focused on normalizing inventory levels and improving asset utilization, with expectations to reduce Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) from approximately 105 days to around 90 days [14] Market Dynamics - **Tariff Impacts**: Recent court rulings on tariffs have created heightened uncertainty, affecting customer order patterns [9][29] - **Chemical Intermediates**: North American exposure is significant, with expectations for margin improvement as tariffs are clarified and capacity is reduced in Europe and Asia [21][22] Growth Initiatives - **Methanolysis Plant**: On track to achieve incremental EBITDA of $75 million, with ongoing improvements in operations and cost management [24][25] - **Packaging Innovations**: Gaining momentum in the packaging sector, focusing on high-quality recycled materials to meet market demands [27][28] Fibers Segment - **Textiles Business**: Impacted by trade and tariffs, with expectations for stabilization and growth in 2026 as market conditions improve [35][36] - **Long-term Outlook**: Aiming to stabilize the Fibers business at an EBIT level of over $300 million in 2026 and beyond [37] Conclusion - Eastman Chemical Company is navigating a challenging economic landscape with strategic cost management and a focus on cash flow. The company is optimistic about future growth in specific segments, particularly in advanced materials and packaging, while addressing current market uncertainties and operational challenges.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Consumer** sector, particularly the implications of raw material price movements on relevant Hong Kong and China consumer stocks [1][7]. Key Raw Material Price Trends - **Palm Oil**: Prices have increased, with a **3.6% MoM** rise in July 2025 and a **17% YTD** increase [24]. - **Sugar**: Prices have stabilized, showing a **0.2% MoM** decrease in July 2025 and a **6% YTD** decline [20]. - **PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate)**: Prices increased by **1.2% MoM** in July 2025 but are down **9% YTD** [22]. - **Raw Milk**: Prices decreased to **Rmb3.03/kg**, down **0.2% MoM** and **8% YTD** [21]. - **Molasses**: Prices have dropped by approximately **20% YTD**, benefiting companies like Angel Yeast [3]. Company-Specific Insights - **Yili (600887.SS)**: Raw milk prices have declined steadily YTD, but are expected to stabilize towards the end of the year due to balanced supply-demand dynamics. This is anticipated to benefit net profit margins (NPM) as inventory provisions decrease in 2025 [2]. - **Angel Yeast (600298.SS)**: The decline in molasses prices is expected to provide an earnings upside if the average selling price (ASP) can be maintained [3]. - **Tingyi (0322.HK) and Uni-President China (0220.HK)**: Lower PET and sugar prices are expected to benefit beverage segment margins, but rising palm oil prices may negatively impact margins in the second half of 2025 [4]. - **Want Want (0151.HK)**: Increasing milk powder prices are likely to pressure margins, with plans to offset costs through raw milk substitution and efficiency improvements [5]. - **Beer Companies**: Companies in this sector are benefiting from lower barley costs, although the tailwinds from aluminum prices are diminishing [5]. - **Hengan (1044.HK)**: Pulp prices have increased since October 2024, which may pressure the tissue business [6]. Market Dynamics - Competitive dynamics in the beverage industry will be crucial for margin trends in the second half of 2025, particularly for Tingyi, where price hike benefits are expected to diminish [4]. - The overall sentiment in the China consumer sector remains in-line, with various companies facing different pressures and opportunities based on raw material price fluctuations [7]. Additional Insights - The average whole milk auction price was reported at **US$4,012 per MT** on August 6, 2025, reflecting an **8.3% MoM** decrease [19]. - The conference highlights the importance of monitoring raw material prices as they directly impact the profitability and operational strategies of consumer goods companies in China [1][7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on raw material price trends and their implications for specific companies within the China consumer sector.

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant downward revision in the US non-farm employment data for June, with a total adjustment of 90,000 jobs, primarily affecting government, leisure, and construction sectors, indicating potential economic instability due to tariffs [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance on inflation, with a possibility of 1-2 rate cuts in the second half of the year as trade negotiations progress [3] - The market is anticipated to enter a new upward phase in the second half of the year, with a focus on cyclical sectors and emerging industries [4][5] Group 2 - The FDCA industry is projected to grow significantly due to increasing demand for PEF as a superior alternative to PET, with recommended investments in companies like Tongkun Co., New Fengming, and Zhenhai Refining [13] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, benefiting sectors like photovoltaic materials, with a focus on price elasticity in the supply chain [14][16] - The coal industry is seeing improved price expectations due to recent policy measures, with recommendations for investments in major coal companies [18] Group 3 - Qingdao Bank reported a 7.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a net profit growth of 16%, indicating strong performance and asset quality [20] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, but maintains a "buy" rating based on long-term competitive advantages [23] - Huaneng International's second-quarter net profit increased by 50% year-on-year, driven by lower fuel costs and expansion in renewable energy [24] Group 4 - Ningde Times reported a 33.73% year-on-year increase in net profit for the second quarter of 2025, with strong market positioning in lithium batteries and new product developments [25] - Tencent is expected to see strong growth in core gaming and advertising revenues, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [26] - Meta Platforms exceeded revenue expectations in Q2 2025, with plans for increased investment in AI infrastructure [27]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is targeting a reduction in capital spending for 2026, indicating a focus on cost savings in 2025 as well [6][14] - There is an expected mid-single-digit drop in demand for the second half of the year, influenced by trade dynamics and seasonality [12][15] - The company anticipates a utilization headwind of approximately $75 million to $100 million in the second half of the year due to inventory reduction efforts [13][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Chemical Intermediates segment is expected to improve by over $30 million, while the Specialty and Fibers segments are projected to decline by a similar amount [70] - The AFP business saw a 4% year-over-year price increase primarily driven by cost pass-through contracts [54] - The Fibers business is facing a $20 million headwind due to tariffs and a $20 million asset utilization headwind, alongside higher energy costs [95][96] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The automotive market is expected to see a low single-digit decline in the back half of the year, with challenges stemming from tariff impacts and consumer behavior [50][51] - The textile market has slowed down significantly due to tariffs, impacting demand and leading to a cautious approach from customers [57][58] - The company is experiencing accelerated demand in certain areas, particularly in mechanical recycling for food-grade packaging applications [35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on cash generation and cost management in response to current market uncertainties [13][16] - There is an emphasis on improving the structural strength of the business, particularly in the chemical and materials segments [21][22] - The company is exploring debottlenecking investments to enhance operational efficiency and profitability in its methanol system plant [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the chaotic nature of the current operating environment, driven by trade dynamics and consumer caution [12][14] - There is a belief that stability may return in 2026, contingent on resolving trade issues and improving economic conditions [15][16] - The management remains cautious about predicting demand due to ongoing uncertainties in the market [40][81] Other Important Information - The company is targeting additional cost cuts of $75 million to $100 million, which will be detailed in plans for the second half of the year [103] - The methanol system plant is performing well, with expectations for increased profitability as operational efficiencies are realized [30][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help us understand how representative the second half should be when thinking about trough earnings levels? - Management indicated that the second half is heavily impacted by trade situations, making it a poor measure of overall company performance [7][10] Question: How far along is the investment in the Metapasys unit, and what gives confidence in profitability? - Management discussed ongoing challenges in the chemical and materials business but expressed optimism about improving profitability through strategic investments [20][24] Question: What triggered the change in customer dialogue in July? - Management noted that the trade pause allowed customers to reassess their inventory and demand, leading to a more cautious approach [41][42] Question: Can you provide more color on the weakness in the automotive end markets? - Management confirmed that while the aftermarket performed well, the interlayer business faced challenges due to production moderation in response to tariffs [49] Question: What is the outlook for the Fibers business next year? - Management indicated that the Fibers business is facing headwinds this year but expects stabilization and potential recovery in the following year [94][100]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the FDCA industry [7] Core Insights - FDCA is a high-value bio-based compound with a wide range of applications, particularly in the production of PEF, which has significant market potential [1][3][5] - The global FDCA market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2021 to 2028, potentially reaching USD 873.28 million by 2028 [3] - PEF, derived from FDCA, exhibits superior properties compared to PET, making it a promising alternative in various applications [4][5] Summary by Sections FDCA Overview - FDCA is a bio-based aromatic monomer derived from biomass such as starch and cellulose, recognized as a suitable substitute for terephthalic acid [1][14] - The synthesis routes for FDCA include chemical and biological methods, with the HMF route being the most promising for industrialization [1][26][27] Domestic and International Development - Internationally, several companies have achieved FDCA production since 2004, while domestic efforts began around 2010 and are rapidly advancing [2][45][56] - Notable international players include Avantium, Corbion Purac, and DuPont, which have made significant strides in FDCA and PEF research and production [45][46][48] Market Potential and Applications - The FDCA market is projected to exceed USD 1.13 billion by 2031, driven by increasing demand for bio-based products [3] - PEF's applications span food packaging, films, and fibers, with its oxygen and carbon dioxide barrier properties significantly outperforming PET [4][18][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in FDCA production, such as Tongkun Co., New Fengming, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical [5][58][60]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a multi-dimensional approach to address "involution" in the chemical industry, focusing on supply, demand, and government collaboration [1][3][25] - Recent policies from various government bodies aim to regulate costs, manage carbon emissions, and eliminate outdated production methods to combat "involution" [2][43] - The report identifies high concentration and deep losses in specific sub-industries as key areas for intervention, suggesting that these sectors may be more amenable to achieving "anti-involution" goals [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Addressing "Involution" in Competition - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has released guidelines to address the causes of "involution" and proposed measures for local governments and enterprises [1][12] - The report highlights the importance of establishing product standards and improving the efficiency of accounts receivable collection to mitigate "involution" [26][32] Section 2: Recent Policy Developments - Recent updates to the Price Law and other regulations aim to strengthen cost supervision and adjust pricing mechanisms to combat "involution" [2][39] - The NDRC has introduced a new framework for energy efficiency reviews and carbon emission evaluations for fixed asset investment projects, targeting high-energy-consuming projects [43][46] Section 3: Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Chemical Sub-Industries - The report analyzes 127 chemical sub-industries based on capacity, concentration, and profitability, identifying those with high loss levels and concentration as potential targets for "anti-involution" measures [4][11] - Specific industries such as soda ash, polyurethane, and organic silicon are highlighted as areas of interest due to their alignment with the identified criteria [4][29] Section 4: Recommendations for Industry Improvement - The report suggests enhancing industry self-regulation, increasing innovation, and establishing standards to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities [36][34] - It emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach between industry policies and competition policies to ensure sustainable development [24][38]