C DOW JONES Investors Are Betting On Market Melt-Up A Developer's Rise To Mideast Envoy ****** MONDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2024 ~ VOL. CCLXXXIV NO. 119 WSJ.com HHHH $5.00 Last week: DJIA 43444.99 g 544.00 1.24% NASDAQ 18680.12 g 3.1% STOXX 600 503.12 g 0.7% 10-YR. TREASURY g 30/32 , yield 4.426% OIL $67.02 g $3.36 EURO $1.0541 YEN 154.34 Business & Finance Many investors are betting the U.S. stock-market rally has room to run, signaling their optimism by pouring money into exchangetraded and mutual funds. A1 Toy m ...

14 Nov 2024 11:22:53 ET │ 11 pages China Battery Materials Takeaways from Battery Expert Call with GGII CITI'S TAKE We hosted a battery expert call on 14th Nov with Mr. HU Feng, chief analyst at GGII, who shared his take on the lithium-ion battery market. He expects EV battery demand to reach 900-950GWh and ESS demand to reach 350-400Gwh in 2025E. The expert call was conducted in Mandarin and below are our key takeaways. We believe we are at the trough of the battery cycle (see our notes part 1 and part 2). ...

14 Nov 2024 09:32:57 ET │ 10 pages China Materials 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #136 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency onground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Mysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and apparent consumption data during the week of 7th to 13th Nov. We shift our n ...

15 Nov 2024 03:50:09 ET | 11 pages China Auto Manufacturers Oct-24 Imported Car Retail Sales -20% YoY / -7% MoM CITI'S TAKE ThinkerCar has published Oct-24 insurance registration data, with total Oct-24 retail sales of imported vehicles posting -20% YoY / -7% MoM to 48.5k units. 10M24 imported car retail sales were -14% YoY to 531.0k units. Figures 1& 2 below show Oct-24 imported sales by brand in China. Currently, we have Buy ratings on China luxury car dealers ZSG, Yongda, and Meidong. Also read: ZSG (088 ...

Industry Overview * **Industrial Production**: Industrial production fell 0.3% MoM in October, slightly stronger than consensus expectations at -0.4%. The largest subset of manufacturing production declined 0.5% MoM. * **Temporary Factors**: The Federal Reserve indicated a 0.3pp drag from strikes and hurricanes during the month. These factors should rebound and boost IP in November. * **Underlying Trend**: The underlying trend of manufacturing activity remains subdued even without these temporary factors. * **Near-term Outlook**: The near-term outlook remains unclear. There could be some boost to activity from lifting of post-election uncertainty, but recently rising yields could weigh further on this ratesensitive sector. * **Survey Data**: Citi will be watching survey data like ISM manufacturing for any change in the outlook for still-soft underlying activity. Key Points * **Industrial Production**: Industrial production fell 0.3% MoM in October, slightly stronger than consensus expectations at -0.4% and Citi at -0.7% [6]. * **Temporary Factors**: The Federal Reserve indicated a 0.3pp drag from strikes and hurricanes during the month. These factors should rebound and boost IP in November [1]. * **Underlying Trend**: The underlying trend of manufacturing activity remains subdued even without these temporary factors [1]. * **Near-term Outlook**: The near-term outlook remains unclear. There could be some boost to activity from lifting of post-election uncertainty, but recently rising yields could weigh further on this ratesensitive sector [1]. * **Survey Data**: Citi will be watching survey data like ISM manufacturing for any change in the outlook for still-soft underlying activity [1].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the macroeconomic outlook for three trade-oriented economies: Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, highlighting their export performance and domestic demand dynamics in 2024 and expectations for 2025 [2][5][8]. Key Points Export Performance - Exports from Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam outperformed expectations in 2024, with Vietnam leading the performance for the first nine months [5][8]. - Robust exports have supported overall economic growth above potential despite tight monetary and credit policies [5][8]. - In 2025, growth is expected to slow significantly in Korea and Taiwan, while Vietnam's growth is projected to rise moderately [2][8]. - A broad moderation in exports is anticipated due to weak demand from mainland China and uncertainties surrounding US trade policy [2][8]. - The report notes a significant reduction in export exposure to China for these economies, attributed to localization of supply chains and US tariffs [2][8][9]. Domestic Demand Dynamics - Domestic demand is expected to diverge among the three economies: sustained strength in Vietnam, recovery in Korea, and moderation in Taiwan [20][23]. - In Korea, consumption is projected to recover slowly due to declines in borrowing costs and a moderate fiscal stance, while investment is unlikely to see significant growth due to uncertainties in US trade policy [20][23]. - Taiwan is expected to experience double-digit increases in equipment investment driven by strong AI-related demand, despite a slowdown in private consumption growth [20][23]. - Vietnam's labor market is normalizing post-pandemic, with job growth returning to pre-pandemic levels and wages rising around 8% [23][24]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam is expected to moderate in line with targets due to stabilizing commodity prices and weak global demand [28][31]. - The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to gradually cut the policy rate to 2.25% by late 2025, reflecting slow growth and reduced risks of housing market overheating [35][39]. - Taiwan's monetary policy is expected to ease moderately, while Vietnam's credit policy may become less restrictive as financial stability improves [36][39]. Risks and Opportunities - Main risks include potential growth downturns from a broader trade war and deflationary pressures from China's excess capacity [41][43]. - Upside risks could arise from trade reallocation away from China, benefiting Vietnam's labor-intensive goods and Taiwan and Korea's capital-intensive goods [41][43]. Economic Projections - GDP growth forecasts for 2025: Korea at 1.8%, Taiwan at 2.6%, and Vietnam at 6.4% [44]. - Headline CPI inflation projections for 2025: Korea at 1.6%, Taiwan at 1.3%, and Vietnam at 3.3% [44]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering external factors, such as US trade policy and China's economic performance, in assessing the outlook for these economies [2][41]. - The analysis highlights the shifting trade dynamics and the increasing importance of the US as a market for these economies, particularly in value-added terms [13][17].

M Update November 15, 2024 01:21 PM GMT Loar Holdings Inc | North America Continuing to Execute on its Growth Strategy | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|--------|--------| | What's Changed \nLoar Holdings Inc (LOAR.N) | From | To | | Price Target | $75.00 | $89.00 | Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision lower Impact to our investment thesis Financial results versus consensus Impact to next 12-month consensus EPS We see the move lower in the stock as largely overdone as gr ...

15 Nov 2024 14:36:08 ET │ 10 pages Global Commodities CBAM risks further straining the US-EU relationship as it targets €4 billion worth of US imports with an implied 10% tariff The first attempt to accurately compile the CBAM registry failed, underscoring the mechanism's limitations we previously detailed in Global Commodities - CBAM primer and how EU producers and importers could save up to €600 million on higher CBAM related costs from 2026. Moreover, during the second Trump presidency, CBAM risks furthe ...

Optical Networking Call Series: Accelink: Optical transceiver supply lagging vs. demand; competition dynamics a key to watch 14 November 2024 | 10:16AM CST We hosted Accelink (Not Covered) management on Nov 13th as part of our GS Optical Networking Call Series. Accelink is a major transceiver maker that focuses on China's domestic market. Our key takeaways from the call include: 1) EML supplies will continue to be tight into 2025; 2) China transceiver market is seeing strong demand but primarily in 400G pro ...

November 15, 2024 02:21 PM GMT Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Oct MS Forecast Retail & food services -1.1 0.7 0.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 1.2 -0.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 ex autos -0.8 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.1 0.3 Control-group -0.4 0.0 0.9 -0.3 0.4 0.9 0.4 -0.2 1.2 -0.1 0.2 Autos -2.2 2.2 -0.1 -1.0 1.1 -3.6 4.4 -0.3 0.2 1.6 0.5 Gasoline -1.4 1.9 0.8 1.6 -2.2 -2.1 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.1 -1.1 Building materials -3.9 2.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.5 1.5 0.9 0.3 1.0 0.5 1.1 Restaurants -0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.7 0. ...