NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Riskified announces Ascend 2026, a global ecommerce fraud and risk management summit series. ...

Core Insights - Riskified (RSKD) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating an upward trend in earnings estimates which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3] - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, providing a more objective measure compared to subjective Wall Street analyst ratings [2][9] Earnings Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks rating upgrade for Riskified reflects a positive outlook on its earnings, which is expected to positively impact its stock price [3][5] - There is a strong correlation between changes in earnings estimates and near-term stock price movements, with institutional investors using these estimates to determine fair value [4][6] Earnings Estimate Revisions for Riskified - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Riskified is expected to earn $0.19 per share, unchanged from the previous year, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 13.8% over the past three months [8][10] Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7] - Riskified's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a GMV of $37.8 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase, and $108.4 billion for the first nine months, showing a 7% increase year-over-year [12] - Q3 revenue reached a record $81.9 million, up 4% year-over-year, while revenue for the first nine months was $245.3 million, increasing 5% year-over-year [13] - Non-GAAP gross profit for Q3 was $41.5 million, a 5% year-over-year increase, translating to a non-GAAP gross profit margin of approximately 51%, up 1% from the previous year [16] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $5.6 million, representing a margin of approximately 7%, with expectations for a margin of approximately 15% in Q4 [18][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The money transfer and payments category grew 100% year-over-year in Q3, driven by new business activity [14] - The tickets and travel category grew 6% in Q3, while the fashion and luxury category saw a 13% increase [13][14] - The home category contracted by approximately 70% year-over-year, but growth is expected to return in Q4 [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., revenue declined 12% year-over-year, primarily due to the contraction in the home category [15] - APAC region grew approximately 55% year-over-year, while other Americas (Canada and Latin America) grew approximately 18% year-over-year [15][16] - EMEA region experienced a 19% year-over-year growth, with strong performance in fashion and luxury, tickets and travel, and money transfer and payments [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing machine learning capabilities and has shifted approximately 70% of its models to autonomous training, which is expected to improve scalability and performance [6][7] - The company is investing in new product developments, including Adaptive Checkout, which has shown significant improvements in conversion rates for merchants [9] - The strategy includes targeting specific verticals and geographic regions for expansion, with a focus on mid-market opportunities [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for the upcoming holiday season, supported by resilient consumer spending and strong performance in key categories [10][11] - The company raised the bottom end of its revenue guidance for the second consecutive quarter, now anticipating revenue between $338 million and $346 million for the full year [21] - Management highlighted the importance of navigating complexities introduced by agentic commerce and stablecoin adoption, positioning the company to assist merchants in this evolving landscape [39][60] Other Important Information - The company ended Q3 with $325 million in cash and investments, maintaining a zero-debt position [19] - Share repurchase activity included 5.2 million shares for approximately $25.3 million in Q3, with a total of 14.2 million shares repurchased for about $69.2 million in the first nine months [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Momentum as the year ends - Management expects strong performance from both upselling existing merchants and acquiring new clients [24] Question: Emerging verticals for 2026 - The company is focused on specific large verticals and geographic regions for expansion, considering both product and distribution strategies [25][26] Question: Revenue contribution from non-Chargeback Guarantee products - Non-Chargeback Guarantee products have shown strong growth, exceeding 100% [29] Question: Long-term margin profile - The long-term margin profile varies based on product mix, with a focus on increasing gross profit dollars [30] Question: Gross margin trajectory into next year - Recent model improvements are expected to enhance gross margins, despite potential headwinds from new categories [34][35] Question: One-time expense impacts in Q3 - Positive impacts were related to payroll adjustments and reserve duties, with expectations for operating expenses to be around $39 million in Q4 [36][37] Question: Growing stablecoin adoption - The company sees stablecoins introducing complexity for merchants, which could drive demand for its services [39] Question: Agentic commerce opportunities and threats - Agentic commerce could increase demand for services due to added complexity, but could also pose risks if transactions shift away from traditional e-commerce [58][60] Question: 2026 EBITDA targets - Management remains optimistic about achieving targeted margins, although some delays may occur due to merchant events [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's GMV for Q3 was $37.8 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase, while the first nine months totaled $108.4 billion, up 7% year-over-year [12] - Q3 revenue reached a record $81.9 million, a 4% increase year-over-year, with year-to-date revenue of $245.3 million, up 5% year-over-year [13] - Non-GAAP gross profit for Q3 was $41.5 million, a 5% year-over-year increase, translating to a gross profit margin of approximately 51%, up 1% from the previous year [16] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $5.6 million, representing a margin of approximately 7%, with expectations for a margin of approximately 15% in Q4 [18][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The money transfer and payments category grew approximately 100% year-over-year in Q3, driven by new business activity [14] - The tickets and travel category grew 6% in Q3, while the fashion and luxury category saw a 13% increase [13][14] - The home category contracted by approximately 70% year-over-year, but growth is expected to return in Q4 [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., revenue declined 12% year-over-year, primarily due to the contraction in the home category [15] - APAC region grew approximately 55% year-over-year, while other Americas (Canada and Latin America) grew approximately 18% year-over-year [15][16] - EMEA region grew approximately 19% year-over-year, with strong performance in fashion and luxury, tickets and travel, and money transfer and payments [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing machine learning capabilities and has shifted approximately 70% of its models to autonomous training, which is expected to improve scalability and performance [6][7] - The company is investing in new product developments, including Adaptive Checkout, which has shown significant improvements in conversion rates for merchants [9] - The strategy includes targeting specific verticals and geographic regions for expansion, with a focus on mid-market opportunities [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for a healthy holiday season, supported by resilient consumer spending and strong performance in key categories [10][11] - The company raised the bottom end of its revenue guidance for the second consecutive quarter, now anticipating revenue between $338 million and $346 million for the full year [21] - Management highlighted the importance of navigating complexities introduced by agentic commerce and the potential for increased demand for their services [60] Other Important Information - The company ended Q3 with $325 million in cash and investments, maintaining zero debt and achieving quarterly free cash flows of $13.4 million [19] - Share repurchase activity included 5.2 million shares for approximately $25.3 million in Q3, with a total of 14.2 million shares repurchased for approximately $69.2 million in the first nine months [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Momentum as the year ends - Management expects strong performance from both upselling existing merchants and acquiring new clients [24] Question: Emerging verticals for 2026 - The company is focused on specific large verticals and geographic regions for expansion, considering both product fit and distribution strategies [26] Question: Revenue contribution from non-Chargeback Guarantee products - Non-Chargeback Guarantee products have shown strong growth, over 100%, contributing positively to long-term contracts and new business [28] Question: Long-term margin profile - The long-term margin profile varies based on product mix, with a focus on increasing gross profit dollars [30] Question: Gross margin trajectory into next year - Recent model improvements are expected to improve performance, but there may be headwinds from new categories and regions [34] Question: One-time expense impacts in Q3 - Positive impacts were related to payroll adjustments and reserve duties, with expectations for operating expenses around $39 million in Q4 [36] Question: Growing stablecoin adoption - The company sees stablecoins and crypto introducing complexity for merchants, which could drive demand for their services [39] Question: Agentic commerce opportunities and threats - Agentic commerce could increase demand for services due to complexity, but there is a risk if transactions move away from traditional e-commerce [60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's GMV for Q3 was $37.8 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase, while the first nine months GMV was $108.4 billion, up 7% year-over-year [12] - Record Q3 revenue reached $81.9 million, a 4% increase year-over-year, with year-to-date revenue of $245.3 million, up 5% year-over-year [12] - Non-GAAP gross profit for Q3 was $41.5 million, a 5% year-over-year increase, translating to a non-GAAP gross profit margin of approximately 51%, an improvement of 1% from the prior year [16] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $5.6 million, representing a margin of approximately 7%, with expectations for a significant increase to around 15% in Q4 [18][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The tickets and travel category grew 6% in Q3, driven by new business wins, while the fashion and luxury category saw a 13% increase [12][13] - The money transfer and payments category achieved approximately 100% year-over-year growth in Q3, primarily driven by new business activity [14] - The home category contracted by approximately 70% year-over-year, but growth is expected to return in Q4 [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., revenue declined 12% year-over-year, mainly due to the contraction in the home category, while APAC grew approximately 55% year-over-year [15] - Other Americas (Canada and Latin America) grew approximately 18% year-over-year, with EMEA growing approximately 19% year-over-year, supported by strong performance in key verticals [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing machine learning capabilities, with 70% of models shifted to autonomous training, which is expected to improve scalability and performance [6][10] - The company is positioning itself to navigate the rise of agentic commerce through strategic partnerships and innovative technology [10] - The company plans to continue investing in product development while managing expenses effectively to maintain operating leverage [45][47] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for a healthy holiday season, supported by resilient consumer spending and strong performance in key categories [11] - The company raised the bottom end of its revenue guidance for the second consecutive quarter, now anticipating revenue between $338 million and $346 million for the full year [20] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to new complexities introduced by agentic commerce, which could drive demand for their services [58] Other Important Information - The company ended Q3 with $325 million in cash and investments, maintaining a zero-debt position [19] - The company repurchased 5.2 million shares for approximately $25.3 million in Q3, continuing its commitment to managing dilution [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company view growth outlook related to existing merchants versus new business? - Management expects strong performance on both upsell and new client acquisition fronts, consistent with prior years [23] Question: Are there emerging verticals to watch for 2026? - The company is focused on specific large verticals and geographic regions for expansion, considering both product fit and distribution strategies [25] Question: What is the revenue contribution from non-Chargeback Guarantee products for 2025? - Non-Chargeback Guarantee products have shown strong growth, over 100%, aiding in securing longer-term contracts and winning new business [27] Question: How does the company view the long-term margin profile with machine learning investments? - The long-term margin profile varies based on product mix, with a focus on increasing gross profit dollars [29] Question: What are the expectations for gross margins into next year? - Management anticipates improved performance from model enhancements, but also acknowledges potential headwinds from new categories [33] Question: How does the company view the impact of stablecoin adoption on fraud management? - The company sees stablecoins introducing complexity for merchants, which could drive demand for their services [39] Question: What are the opportunities and threats related to agentic commerce? - Agentic commerce presents opportunities due to increased complexity for merchants, but could also pose threats if transactions shift away from traditional e-commerce [58]

Core Insights - Riskified (RSKD) reported quarterly earnings of $0.04 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.03 per share, marking a year-over-year increase from $0.03 per share [1] - The company achieved revenues of $81.86 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.10% and showing growth from $78.85 million a year ago [2] - Riskified's stock has increased approximately 5.9% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has gained 16.4% [3] Earnings Performance - Over the last four quarters, Riskified has exceeded consensus EPS estimates two times and topped revenue estimates four times [2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.11 on revenues of $97.68 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.19 on revenues of $341.31 million [7] Market Outlook - The company's stock is currently rated Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] - The Internet - Software industry, to which Riskified belongs, is ranked in the top 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8]

Financial Performance - Riskified's Q3 2025 revenue reached $81.9 million, a 4% year-over-year increase[49, 54] - The company's gross profit for Q3 2025 was $41.1 million[49] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $5.6 million, a 518% year-over-year improvement[49, 56] - Non-GAAP operating expenses decreased from 49% to 44% of revenue year-over-year[57] - Riskified repurchased approximately 5.2 million ordinary shares for approximately $25.3 million in Q3 2025[63] Market Position and Growth - Riskified reviewed $148 billion in GMV in the last twelve months ended September 30, 2025[16, 20] - The company estimates the global ecommerce GMV to be $6.5 trillion in 2025 and $8.3 trillion in 2029[21] - Riskified's non-GAAP gross profit margin as of LTM Q3 2025 was 51%[18] - The company expects over $30 million in Free Cash Flow in 2025[73]

Financial Performance - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) for Q3 2025 reached $37,805 million, a 9% increase year-over-year[4] - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $81,862 million, reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth[4] - GAAP gross profit for Q3 2025 was $41,063 million, with a gross profit margin of 50%[4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $5,553 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7%[4] - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $81.862 million, a 3.8% increase from $78.849 million in Q3 2024[31] - Gross profit for Q3 2025 was $41.063 million, compared to $38.956 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a gross profit margin improvement[31] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $5,553 million, up from $899 million in Q3 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7% compared to 1% in the prior year[36] - Non-GAAP gross profit for Q3 2025 was $41,531 million, an increase from $39,561 million in Q3 2024, resulting in a non-GAAP gross profit margin of 51% compared to 50% in the previous year[36] - Net profit for Q3 2025 was $(7,806) million, an improvement from $(9,699) million in Q3 2024, while the net profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $(33,325) million compared to $(30,838) million in the same period of 2024[34] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was $6.698 million, up from $5.530 million in Q3 2024, representing a 21% increase[39] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Operating cash inflow for Q3 2025 was $13.5 million, compared to $14.0 million in the prior year[7] - The company ended Q3 2025 with approximately $325.2 million in cash, deposits, and investments, with zero debt[7] - Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, were $228.845 million, down from $371.063 million as of December 31, 2024[29] - The company experienced a net cash decrease of $(36,187) million in Q3 2025, compared to a decrease of $(32,296) million in Q3 2024[34] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 2025 were $228,845 million, down from $356,398 million at the end of Q3 2024[34] Expenses and Cost Management - Operating expenses decreased to $50.014 million in Q3 2025 from $53.286 million in Q3 2024, indicating a cost management strategy[31] - Research and development expenses for Q3 2025 were $17,006 million, up from $16,671 million in Q3 2024, reflecting ongoing investment in innovation[38] - The company reported a GAAP cost of revenue of $40,799 million for Q3 2025, compared to $39,893 million in Q3 2024, indicating a year-over-year increase[38] - Share-based compensation expenses of $12,945 million in Q3 2025, slightly down from $13,905 million in Q3 2024[36] - Restructuring costs for Q3 2025 amounted to $585,000, while there were no such costs reported in Q3 2024[39] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased to $421.697 million as of September 30, 2025, from $495.861 million as of December 31, 2024[29] - Total liabilities were $105.401 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $113.557 million as of December 31, 2024, showing a reduction in liabilities[29] - Shareholders' equity decreased to $316.296 million as of September 30, 2025, from $382.304 million as of December 31, 2024[29] Market and Strategic Initiatives - The Money Transfer and Payments category achieved 100% year-over-year revenue growth, with plans to double absolute dollar revenues for FY 2025[3] - The company aims to expand its market share and improve its AI-powered platform to enhance customer retention and reduce fraud[26] - Total attendance at the Ascend 2025 events increased by 73%, with over $1 trillion in merchant ecommerce volume represented[3] Taxation - The company reported a provision for income taxes of $1,801 million for Q3 2025, compared to $639 million in Q3 2024, indicating a significant increase in tax obligations[36] Share Performance - Basic and diluted net loss per share for Q3 2025 was $(0.05), an improvement from $(0.06) in Q3 2024[39] - Non-GAAP net profit per share for Q3 2025 was $0.04, compared to $0.03 in Q3 2024, reflecting a 33% increase[39] - Weighted-average shares used in computing net profit per share for Q3 2025 were 156,793,171, compared to 168,649,496 in Q3 2024[39]

Core Insights - Riskified (NYSE: RSKD) shares have remained nearly flat this year, reflecting the company's financial performance, but are expected to experience growth acceleration in upcoming quarters due to easier comparisons and a robust pipeline of new opportunities [1] Company Performance - The financial performance of Riskified has been stable, with shares showing little movement year-to-date [1] - The company is anticipated to benefit from favorable conditions that will enhance growth prospects in the near future [1] Market Outlook - The growth acceleration is attributed to easier year-over-year comparisons and a healthy pipeline of new initiatives that the company is pursuing [1]