更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Tesla Inc (TSLA US) Reduce: 4Q24 deliveries miss poses growth question The numbers: Auto miss, storage beat: 4Q24 deliveries came in at 496k, 3% below VA consensus. At 1,789k, 2024 deliveries were down 1% YoY, missing company guidance of "slight growth in 2024". Moreover, production in 4Q24 looked weak; at 459k units, it was down 7% YoY and 7% below deliveries. Weak production could imply soft sales development into 1Q25, raising questions over TSLA's ambition to grow deliveries ...

Key Takeaways Industry or Company Involved * **Tesla Inc (TSLA.O, TSLA US)**: The focus of the document is on Tesla Inc, a leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer. Core Views and Arguments * **4Q Delivery Miss**: Tesla missed its delivery expectations by 3% in 4Q, primarily due to a relatively aged product lineup and increased competition from lower-priced EVs ahead of the introduction of the new, cheaper model (Juniper) in early/mid-2025. * **Inventory Reduction**: Despite the delivery miss, Tesla achieved a 6 to 7-day reduction in days' supply of inventory in 4Q, driven by delivering 36k more units than it produced. This resulted in a ~$1.6bn working capital inflow during the quarter. * **Energy Storage Deployment**: Tesla's energy storage deployments exceeded expectations by 15% in 4Q, with 11.0 GWh deployed vs. 9.09 GWh expected. This brought the annual growth rate to 113% y/y compared to 2023. * **Valuation**: Morgan Stanley's price target for Tesla is $400.00, based on a valuation methodology that considers the core Tesla Auto business, Tesla Mobility, third-party supplier, energy, and network services. Other Important Content * **Morgan Stanley's Stock Rating**: Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tesla, with an industry view of "In-Line" and a price target of $400.00. * **Risks**: The document highlights various risks to Tesla's upside and downside, including competition, execution risk, market recognition of new services, China risk, and valuation. * **Analyst Certification**: Adam Jonas, CFA, the lead analyst on the report, certifies that their views are accurately expressed and that they have not received compensation for expressing specific recommendations or views. References * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='5'] * [doc id='6'] * [doc id='10'] * [doc id='15']

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 02 January 2025 Hong Kong Retail sales roughly in line with expectation of an 8.3%oya fall Hong Kong's retail sales fell 8.3%oya in November, in line with our expectation (vs. market consensus: -5.4%oya, J.P. Morgan forecast: -8.6%oya). This widened from October's 4.8% decline. Seasonally adjusted, retail sales volume inched up 0.3%m/m sa, recording month-on-month gains for the third consecutive month. The underlying trend growth pi ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 2 January 2025 | 11:05PM HKT Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS): FY24 Preliminary Results in Line; Moutai Spirits Momentum Maintained Kweichow Moutai pre-announced its 2024 operating results on Jan 2 post market close, with revenue at Rmb173.8bn, up 15.4% yoy and NP at Rmb85.7bn up 14.7% yoy, both slightly higher than our full year estimate. Implied 4Q24 revenue is Rmb50.7bn, up 12.0% yoy, and implied 4Q24 net profit is Rmb24.9bn, up 13.8% yoy, slightly higher vs. GSe of 10.2%/10.5% yo ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Derek R. Bingham +1(415)249-7435 | derek.bingham@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brendan Corbett +1(415)249-7440 | brendan.corbett@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Varsha Venugopal +1(415)393-7554 | varsha.venugopal@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brian Singer, CFA +1(212)902-8259 | brian.singer@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Evan Tylenda, CFA +44(20)7774-1153 | evan.tylenda@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Emma Jones +61(2)9320-1041 | emma.jones@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 2 January 2025 India Industrials and Infrastructure Electric India: 2025 Outlook — Thermal in 2023, the Grid in 2024, what's the story for this year? Nikhil Nigania +91 226 842 1414 nikhil.nigania@bernsteinsg.com Uma Menon +91 226 842 1490 uma.menon@bernsteinsg.com We believe the best is behind for wind equipment, thermal equipment story, transmission capex estimate revisions & renewable valuation multiples. We see Green H2 struggle to takeoff and pumped storage plans slow down. ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 | Jefferies | | --- | 2 January 2025 Warning signs Uluwatu Estate A key issue facing investors at the start of 2025 is the self-evident contradictory nature of the President-elect Donald Trump's policy agenda and how those contradictions are resolved. Still investors were not letting such issues bother them too much in the final weeks of last year. At least such was the case in America. The US stock market ended last year in a bullish frenzy. The focus was on the deregulation dr ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 01:07 PM GMT Global Technology M Global Idea AI Supply Chain: CES Preview, Key Checkpoint for AI PC It remains to be seen whether the new features in AI PC at CES would lead to better graphic demand. Meanwhile, we see smaller possibility of NVIDIA's WoA AI PC chip launch (Computex more likely), as software compatibility may take more time. What to expect? CES is the largest consumer electronics trade show. In recent years, AI + IoT have been the key focus. For ot ...

J P M O R G A N 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 North America Equity Research 01 January 2025 Hardware & Networking Our Top 10 Predictions for 2025 In keeping with the spirit of a New Year, we thought it would be appropriate to share our top predictions for our coverage universe in Hardware & Networking companies. Happy New Year. 1. Starting with Apple - Expect the stock to surprise through resilience for large part of 2025 in anticipation of the AI cycle - We expect to see continued resilience from the shares ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 2 January 2025 India Strategy India Strategy Outlook: Start buying selectively Venugopal Garre +65 6236 7643 venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com Nikhil Arela +91 226 842 1482 nikhil.arela@bernsteinsg.com The title may raise several questions. After an entire year of cautioning on macro and earnings risks, and now that both have surfaced, we now advise to start buying selectively. What's influencing this strategy and what does "selectively" entail? Let's find the answers. Forecasting ...