Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Metals & Mining, specifically focusing on Aluminum and Steel in North America [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Proposal**: President Trump proposed a 25% tariff on aluminum and steel, aimed at boosting domestic production and reducing reliance on imports [1][2] 2. **Impact on Prices**: The implementation of tariffs is expected to lead to higher domestic prices for aluminum and steel, with potential physical premiums increasing by up to 25% for local buyers, particularly in aluminum due to supply shortages [3][5] 3. **Import Statistics**: In 2023, the US was a net importer of approximately 4.5 million tons (mt) of aluminum (82% of refined demand) and 15.7 mt of steel (17% of domestic demand) [4] 4. **Alcoa's Position**: Alcoa is expected to benefit from the tariffs due to its US smelting operations, which account for 13% of its total capacity. The company can capture elevated premiums resulting from the tariffs [5] 5. **Steel Producers' Outlook**: All US steel producers are anticipated to benefit from higher tariffs, although low capacity utilization (70-75%) may limit immediate gains. The US has been increasing its steelmaking capacity, with 10.7 million short tons (mnst) added from 2020-2023 and another 10.5 mnst expected from late 2024 to 2027 [6][10] 6. **Market Dynamics**: A significant portion of imported steel (80-85%) comes from countries exempt from current trade protections, indicating that any new tariffs would need to target these exempted countries to be effective [6] Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Capacity Development**: Constructing new smelters and mills can take three or more years, suggesting that any tariffs applied now may not yield immediate results in terms of increased domestic production [3] - **Potential for New Investments**: Foreign companies, such as Hyundai Steel, are considering building plants in the US to avoid tariffs, indicating a potential shift in investment dynamics [10] - **Valuation Methodology for Alcoa**: The year-end 2025 price target for Alcoa is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple approach, with a target multiple of 6.3x, reflecting a cautious outlook amid volatility in alumina prices [15] Risks - **Upside Risks**: Stronger than expected demand for aluminum and alumina, operational improvements in bauxite/alumina businesses, and potential rationalization of refining and smelting capacity in China could positively impact the sector [17] - **Downside Risks**: Demand softening, operational setbacks in bauxite/alumina, and faster-than-expected restart of additional smelting capacity could negatively affect the sector [17]

February 9, 2025 08:40 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Revival of Tech Innovation vs Tariffs Related Reports: Bull vs Bear: Revival of Tech Innovation vs Tariffs (Feb 7, 2025) Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. Foundation M Bull Arguments In the Ea ...

February 10, 2025 04:45 PM GMT China – Power Utilities | Asia Pacific Expert Call Takeaways: New Policy on New Energy Tariffs and Market Trading We hosted Dr. Tao from the NDRC Energy Research Institute to explain the newly announced market reform policy on new energy power tariffs and address key investor queries. Key Takeaways New energy to fully enter market trading: The accelerated market reform policy on new energy does not seek to monitor or control the pace of renewable capacity addition, but rather ...

We placed BYD on Positive Catalyst Watch last week (see here) in anticipation of competitive product launches at its technology day yesterday (Feb 10) accelerating the adoption of L2+ autonomous driving (AD) in China. Indeed, BYD unveiled its latest city-level and highway NOA (navigation on autopilot) solution, or 'BYD God's Eye system', at the event. Chairman/ Founder Mr. Wang Chuanfu announced that 21 BYD models will be equipped with the latest 'God's Eye' solution, covering all models priced above Rmb100 ...

Summary of the China Cosmetics Industry Research Industry Overview - The cosmetics industry in China is facing a challenging year with weak consumption sentiment and no clear signs of recovery [2][6] - Brands are preparing for potential further decline or flat sales, implementing stringent cost controls including headcount reductions [2][6] - Market consolidation is ongoing, with leading players gaining market share from smaller and foreign brands [2][6] - A trend of consumption trade-down is observed across all levels, from prestige to mass brands [2][6] Key Companies Giant Bio - **Product Life Cycle**: Giant has leveraged synthetic biology for mass production of recombinant collagen, benefiting from policy support and demand for anti-aging products [3][6] - **Core Product Growth**: The Collagen Stick has become a hero product, supported by collaborations with key opinion leaders (KOLs) [3][6] - **Marketing Strategy**: Giant's product-driven sales and marketing create a barrier to entry for competitors, emphasizing scientific credibility and customer education [3][6] - **Valuation**: Target price set at HK$61.0, based on a 28x 2024E P/E, reflecting faster growth prospects compared to historical averages [9][10] Proya - **Agility and Scale**: Proya's competitive advantage lies in its ability to adapt quickly to market changes while maintaining large sales volumes [7][11] - **Leadership Transition**: The company is undergoing a leadership transition with expectations of a two-year adjustment period [7][11] - **Valuation**: Target price set at RMB112.8 based on DCF valuation, reflecting strong cash flow and long-term investor perspectives [11][12] Risks - **Giant Bio**: Risks include intense competition, niche market position, rising online channel development costs, and regulatory risks [10] - **Proya**: Risks involve competition from local and international brands, failure to develop new products, weaker digital operations, and potential economic slowdown impacts [12] Market Trends - The competitive landscape is shifting, with consumers increasingly favoring medical beauty and leading domestic brands over international options [2][6] - The upcoming Goddess Festival (Women's Day) is expected to further highlight the competitive dynamics within the industry [1][2] Conclusion - The China cosmetics industry is currently in a state of flux, with significant challenges ahead. Leading domestic brands like Giant and Proya are well-positioned to navigate these challenges, but they must remain vigilant against competitive pressures and market changes.

10 February 2025 Trade tensions have intensified but may accelerate policy easing (7 February). The US has imposed a 10% tariff on goods imported from China, which we estimate to reduce China's GDP by 0.3ppt. But it may be a blessing in disguise, pushing Beijing to implement more forceful fiscal easing and structural reforms. Among all the policy initiatives laid out by the Third Plenum last year, fiscal sustainability was not only considered as a long-term objective, but also essential for restoring local ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US Economics** sector, particularly analyzing inflation trends and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices. Core Insights and Arguments - **Core CPI and PCE Inflation Forecasts**: A forecast of a **0.34% month-over-month increase** in core CPI for January is presented, leading to a **0.31% increase** in core PCE inflation, which is softer than the **0.50% increase** observed last January due to a slowdown in shelter inflation [1][5][7]. - **Tariff Impact**: The report discusses the potential impact of **10% tariffs on imports from China** and delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, suggesting that the overall effect on prices may be more minimal than anticipated by the market [1][8][9]. - **Consumer Inflation Expectations**: A significant jump in **1-year ahead consumer inflation expectations** was noted, rising from **3.3% to 4.3%**, with longer-term expectations also increasing slightly [12][13]. - **Wage Growth Trends**: Average hourly earnings rose by **0.5% month-over-month** in January, indicating some strength but not necessarily signaling reaccelerating wage inflation. The report highlights that wage growth dynamics may reflect a catch-up of wages for existing workers to higher market wages [10][11]. Additional Important Content - **Inflation Metrics**: The report provides detailed inflation forecasts for various metrics, including core CPI and core PCE, with projections indicating a gradual easing of inflation rates over the coming quarters [16]. - **Service Prices**: It is expected that service prices will slow down in the coming months, contributing to the overall inflation trend [17]. - **PPI and CPI Relationship**: The report emphasizes the relationship between PPI goods prices and potential increases in CPI goods prices, particularly as tariffs come into effect [22]. - **Market Sentiment**: The report notes that more firms are planning to raise prices than those planning to raise worker compensation, indicating a cautious outlook on inflationary pressures [29][32]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts regarding inflation trends and economic indicators as discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview for investors and stakeholders in the US economy.

V i e w p o i n t | 10 Feb 2025 15:38:42 ET │ 19 pages Taiwan Electronics & Semiconductors Taiwan technology sector monthly tracking – High-end applications support a good start of the year CITI'S TAKE Based on Taiwanese technology companies' reported Jan sales, we note that advanced applications such as AI lead better YoY momentum at the beginning of the year. Server players Jan sales were tracking ahead (-11% MoM/+81% YoY). Wiwynn and Accton both delivered better-than-seasonality monthly sales due to robu ...

10 February 2025 U.S. Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment U.S. Semiconductors - Deconstructing 2024 Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 212 756 4403 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw +1 212 969 1458 alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes +1 212 969 1518 arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com On the surface, 2024 was a solid upturn for the semiconductor industry, with total sales rising 19% YoY following an 8% decline in 2023. Growth was however dominated by memory (which rose 79% YoY following 2023 ...

February 10, 2025 07:06 AM GMT China Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia Pacific Renewed promotions in February…likely not even the beginning of the end While overall January sales were better than feared following the trade-in subsidy extension, most EV players either extended or widened promotions from Jan in the hope of locking in more orders during the low season in 1Q. We summarize January's price trends and key promotion changes in February. We summarize the price trends (unweighted avg.) of models from ke ...