5 February 2025 U.S. Autos & Auto Parts US Autos: Tariffs are terrible - Did the market get it right? Daniel Roeska +1 917 344 8577 daniel.roeska@bernsteinsg.com Christopher Gray +1 917 344 8308 christopher.gray@bernsteinsg.com Joseph Han +1 917 344 8571 joseph.han@bernsteinsg.com On Monday, auto stocks reacted to the news President Trump was adding 25% tariffs to Mexico and Canada and traded down by up to 8%. Later on Monday, President Trump announced a 30-day delay of the tariffs until March 4th, and on T ...

Action | 05 Feb 2025 08:00:00 ET │ 13 pages NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) Preview – Investor Focus Shifts to Earnings & GTC in March CITI'S TAKE NVDA reports Jan-Q after the market close on 2/26. We model in-line Jan/Apr-Q and believe expectations are for ~$38B/$42.5B sales for the Jan/Apr-Qs given supply chain indications for the Blackwell to ramp more meaningfully mid this year with some mix shift between GB200/300. We believe NVDA stock is approaching valuation support levels trading at mid 20's P/E & 25% discoun ...

February 5, 2025 03:39 PM GMT China Internet | Asia Pacific Our Thoughts on a Potential Probe into iOS Channel Fee in China Bloomberg news reported a potential probe into iOS channel fee in China. We think this could benefit Tencent and NetEase if it follows the outcome in the EU – a 13ppt reduction in channel fee and allowing third-party marketplace and in-app payments. What happened: Bloomberg reported that China is considering a probe into iOS App Store practices – 30% channel fee and barring third-party ...

5 February 2025 Equity Research Report China software Equities DeepSeek-R1 marks further AI monetization China DeepSeek-R1 – strong performance at low cost: DeepSeek-R1 is a reasoning model developed by DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup. As a reasoning model (vs general model), it first generates a Chain of Thought to enhance the accuracy of responses before delivering the final answer. This open-source model has shown robust performance (rivaling OpenAI's o1 in mainstream benchmarks) at a much lower cost in m ...

Summary of Precious Metals Daily Commodities Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the precious metals market, specifically gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, highlighting recent price movements and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points Gold Market Insights - Gold prices reached a new high of USD 2,882/oz, driven by geopolitical tensions and trade issues, alongside a weaker USD and lower yields [6][5]. - The World Gold Council reported record demand for gold in Q4 2024, with total demand rising by 1% year-on-year to 4,974 tons, supported by significant central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tons [8][5]. - Central bank demand in Q4 2024 was approximately 333 tons, indicating strong institutional interest [8][5]. - Gold ETFs showed stabilization after three years of outflows, suggesting renewed investor confidence [8][5]. - The report anticipates that geopolitical and trade risks will continue to support gold prices, although potential breakthroughs in trade could lead to price declines [9][5]. Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices lagged behind gold, with underlying demand from both industry and coin purchases considered weak [10][5]. - The report suggests that silver prices could decline if gold's rally moderates, indicating a close correlation between the two metals [10][5]. Platinum and Palladium Trends - Platinum prices showed some strength, while palladium remained sluggish, affected by concerns over auto demand and potential tariff impacts [10][5]. - The report notes a mixed outlook for platinum group metals (PGMs), with a shift away from electric vehicles potentially providing some support [10][5]. Economic Indicators - The US ADP jobs report indicated an addition of 183,000 jobs in January, while the ISM services index eased to 52.8 from 54.0 in December, reflecting a mixed economic outlook [4][5]. - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin expressed expectations for a significant decrease in annual inflation rates in Q1, suggesting no strong case for a rate hike [7][5]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of tariff risks on the USD, which could further influence gold prices [6][5]. - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market remains cautious but optimistic, with a focus on geopolitical developments and their potential effects on investor behavior [9][5].

5 February 2025 Equity Research Report China Consumer Equities Spring Festival: Green shoots amid moderation China Tourism – solid passenger traffic; strong inbound tourism. Inter-regional passenger trips exceeded 2.3bn during the eight-day Chinese New Year (CNY) – Spring Festival holiday (compared with 2.29bn during the seven-day CNY holiday last year) (as per Xinhua). According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the eight-day Spring Festival holiday registered 501m domestic trips (5.9% y-o-y) and RMB ...

Summary of NetEase (NTES US) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NetEase (NTES US) - **Industry**: Internet Software & Services - **Market Cap**: USD 65.229 billion [15] Key Points Performance and Growth - **Marvel Rivals (MR)**: - Achieved a new high of STEAM users in January, ranking 3 and 4 on PS5 and Xbox respectively [2] - Weekly revenue ranking peaked at 2 on STEAM in January [2] - Grossed approximately RMB 2 billion between December 2024 and January 2025, leading to an increase in gross billings forecast to RMB 6 billion for 2025 (up from RMB 3.3 billion) [2] - **Where Winds Meet (WWM)**: - Total users reached 15 million within a month of launch, with monetization exceeding expectations [2] - Gross billings forecast raised to RMB 5.6 billion for 2025 (up from RMB 3 billion) [2] - **Overall Revenue Growth**: - Expected game revenue growth of 12% in 2025, with PC revenue projected to increase by 51% year-over-year [2] - Adjusted net profit expected to grow by 12% year-over-year [4] New Game Launches - **Fragpunk (PC)**: - Expected to contribute RMB 1.7 billion to gross billings in 2025, featuring unique card mechanics and a 1v1 duel mechanism [3] - **Destiny Rising (Mobile)**: - Anticipated to generate RMB 1.4 billion in gross billings in 2025, although players expressed concerns over heavy monetization [3] Financial Estimates - **Earnings Estimates**: - 2025 earnings estimates raised by 1% [2] - New target price set at USD 117 (previously USD 115), implying approximately 16% upside from current levels [2][6] - **Financial Ratios**: - PE ratio projected to be 13x for 2025, compared to Tencent's 14x [2] - Expected dividend yield of 2.0% in 2025 [7] Market Position and Investor Sentiment - **Stock Performance**: - NetEase shares have increased by 33% since November 2024, outperforming KWEB which rose by 5% in the same period [2] - **Investor Benchmarking**: - Investors are using Tencent's PE as a benchmark for NetEase's potential re-rating [2] Risks and Challenges - **Market Risks**: - Potential difficulties in obtaining game monetization approvals [65] - Risks associated with new game launches not meeting expectations and competition from Tencent and Mihoyo [65] Future Outlook - **International Expansion**: - Expectation that overseas games will contribute 14% of total gross billings in 2025, up from 6% in 2024 [2] Additional Insights - **Deferred Revenue**: Expected to grow by 16% year-over-year, indicating strong future revenue potential [4] - **User Engagement**: MR has the largest game community on Discord and was the 7th most-watched game on Twitch in December 2024, highlighting strong user engagement [29][27] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding NetEase's performance, growth prospects, financial estimates, and market positioning.

February 5, 2025 06:47 AM GMT China Tourism Group Duty Free | Asia Pacific Hainan DF Sales During CNY Holiday - Lukewarm Yet Sequentially Stable Offline Hainan duty free (DF) market: Per Haikou Customs (CCTV news, offline sales only), average daily DF sales during the CNY holiday (Jan 28-Feb 4) were at Rmb262mn/day, -16%, vs. 2024 CNY. The YoY decline widened from -5% in Dec-24 due to a high base, but it was visibly narrower vs -30% to -40% during March-Nov 2024. A sequentially stable CNY trajectory, in our ...

ab 5 February 2025 Global Research Asian Autos Sector What conditions support buying on weakness? High quality is key The 25% import tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico to the US have been delayed one month to March, but tariffs, including on exports to the US from other regions, remains a risk factor for the auto and auto parts sector. Negative impact comes not only in the form of direct increases in vehicle costs, but also from multiple factors such as higher prices for parts and raw materials and del ...

5 February 2025 Equity Research Report China Film Industry Equities 2025 CNY box office hits a new high 2025 CNY box office hits a new high. Box office revenue rose to RMB9,510m during the 2025 Chinese New Year (CNY), up 19% from the 2024 CNY holiday and setting a new CNY box office record. This also beats our expectations. The number of attendances rose 15% y-o-y to 187 million, with average price up 3% y-o-y to RMB50.8. Films released during the holiday have earned good reputation thanks to their overall ...