2024 年 06 月 25 日 宏观深度研究 研究所： [Table_Title] 寻找房价周期之锚 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn ——一个日本视角 最近一年走势 房地产如此重要，关系国计民生，它是国民经济的支柱、财富的象 征、大类资产配置的核心、经济周期之母、民生的保障、金融危机 的策源地。 房价是反映房地产市场波动的核心指标之一，其变动影响购房者预 期、居民家庭财富变动和金融体系的稳定。 近年来，房价波动引发广泛讨论，市场开始寻求其变化规律，试图 找到能判断房价是否见底的“锚”。我们从周期视角、收益率视角、 收入视角、货币视角，分析判断房价变动趋势及其内在逻辑。本文 相关报告 是该系列研究的第一篇：周期之锚。 《开年看地产：一线城市房地产市场怎么走》—— 2024-03-19 从1998年房改以来，中国的房价经历了二十多年的平稳上升，并未 《构建“人房地钱”联动的房地产发展新模式*夏磊》 经历大幅调整。国际来看，发达国家的房价经历过明显的周期，特 ——2024-03-05 别是日本，在基本面上和中国有相似之处，也有一定的差异。 《2024年房地产市场 ...

行 业 研 究 2024.06.20 电 子 行 业 专 题 报 告 模拟芯片库存拐点已至，AI 拉动电源相关需求 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 原厂+渠道携手控制库存，拐点已至。库存方面，本轮周期下行期中，模拟 郑震湘 登记编号：S1220523080004 芯片原厂携手分销商、汽车Tier 1厂商一同控制库存，已取得一定成效。 TI表示国内工业库存去化已经接近尾声；ADI本季度库存去化近1亿美元， 佘凌星 登记编号：S1220523070005 预期下季度库存将进一步优化；瑞萨表示渠道长期库存已经趋于稳定；NXP 的分销渠道库存成效显著，已控制在 1.6 个月。我们认为随着下游需求逐 步复苏，模拟芯片库存将趋于正常。 行 业 评 级 :推 荐 工业需求强劲复苏，AI芯片功率提升拉动电源相关需求。需求方面，ADI表 行 业 信 息 示强劲的PMI数据支撑了工业领域持续的订单，这有助于库存的不断消化， 上市公司总家数 511 工业行业将于下个季度重回增长。MPS看到了 AI 需求强劲，在积极备货主 总股本(亿股) 5,485.32 动增加库存。算力芯片功率相较于传统 CPU 高出 ...

证券研究报告 风格决定胜负，科技成长崛起 ——2024年下半年A股策略展望 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The stock market performed weakly last week, with cyclical sectors such as consumer, real estate, and pharmaceuticals experiencing declines [1][2] - The bond market showed strong performance, with long-term government bond yields falling below 2.5% [1][2] - The RMB faced depreciation pressure, with the USD/RMB exchange rate breaking through 7.25 and offshore RMB reaching above 7.3 [1][2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - The A-share market is currently focused on two sectors: dividends and technology [1][4] - The industrial mother machine concept gained recognition due to the tech conference, and AI-driven changes in the consumer electronics and Apple supply chain have attracted attention [1][4] Market Data and Key Metrics - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with market confidence in policy remaining low despite some easing measures [2] - The export sector showed strong performance from the beginning of the year to mid-May, but this trend is unlikely to sustain without a new global easing cycle [4] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company highlighted the need to eliminate negative factors such as tight global USD liquidity and domestic real estate issues to fully repair the A-share market and create conditions for a new bull market [5][6] - The company emphasized that the current phase of risk aversion is marked by the shift in market capitalization from Moutai to ICBC, signaling the end of the leveraged growth era [1][3] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current risk aversion in the market is due to global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues, which need to be resolved to restore market confidence [5][6] - The company expects that the A-share market will require both overseas USD liquidity easing and domestic interest rate cuts to achieve a full recovery [7] Other Important Information - The company discussed the potential impact of the upcoming Third Plenum, which is expected to focus on central-local fiscal relations and systemic reforms to address current economic challenges [9][10] - The company highlighted the importance of fiscal and tax reforms in addressing the unsustainable fiscal model and supporting future economic growth [11][16] Q&A Summary Question: What were the main characteristics of the capital market last week? - The capital market was dominated by risk aversion, with weak stock market performance and strong bond market performance [2] Question: What is the significance of Moutai's market capitalization being surpassed by ICBC? - This shift marks the end of China's leveraged growth era and reflects the current extreme risk aversion in the market [3] Question: What sectors in the A-share market are worth paying attention to? - The A-share market is currently focused on dividends and technology, with particular attention on AI-driven changes in consumer electronics and the Apple supply chain [4] Question: When will the risk appetite for Chinese assets open up? - The risk appetite for Chinese assets will open up once negative factors such as global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues are resolved [5][6] Question: What are the main reasons for the poor performance of the A-share market over the past two years? - The poor performance is attributed to global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues [6] Question: What conditions are needed for the repair and rebound of Chinese asset risks? - The repair and rebound of Chinese asset risks require overseas USD liquidity easing and domestic interest rate cuts [7] Question: Why has China not implemented large-scale easing policies? - China has not implemented large-scale easing due to RMB depreciation pressure and incomplete financial supply-side reforms [8] Question: What impact will the Third Plenum have on market expectations? - The Third Plenum is expected to focus on central-local fiscal relations and systemic reforms, which could influence market expectations [9][10] Question: What are the main challenges facing China's real estate market? - The real estate market faces challenges such as oversupply, demographic changes, and reduced demand due to population aging [12] Question: How does local fiscal contraction affect the economy? - Local fiscal contraction has significantly impacted government spending and public services, contributing to overall economic weakness [13] Question: What are the long-term impacts of demographic changes on China's economy? - Demographic changes, including aging and declining birth rates, will have profound impacts on labor supply, consumption, and social security systems [14][17] Question: What are the key drivers of China's rapid prosperity over the past 20 years? - The key drivers include industrialization, urbanization, and a leveraged growth model supported by a large working-age population [15] Question: How is fiscal reform interconnected with other institutional reforms? - Fiscal reform is closely linked to other institutional reforms, including government expenditure optimization, social security system improvement, and financial regulation [16] Question: What are the current and future trends in China's population structure? - China's population is aging rapidly, with the proportion of elderly expected to double by 2051, and a significant decline in the working-age population [17][18] Question: What are the causes and effects of the declining birth rate? - The declining birth rate is caused by a reduction in the number of women of childbearing age and is expected to exacerbate labor shortages and economic challenges [19][21] Question: How will population distribution between urban and rural areas affect social development? - The concentration of young people in cities and the aging population in rural areas will lead to resource allocation imbalances and increased fiscal pressure [20][23] Question: What measures should the Chinese government take to address aging and declining birth rates? - The government should focus on employment, education reform, vocational training, and improving the social security system to address these challenges [24][25] Question: How should healthcare reform be conducted? - Healthcare reform should focus on cost control through centralized procurement and the development of a multi-tiered medical security system [26] Question: What are the expected reforms in consumption tax? - Consumption tax reforms are expected to shift from the production to the consumption stage and be decentralized to local governments [30] Question: What is the outlook for the copper market? - The copper market is expected to remain weak until there is a clear signal of monetary easing in the US or China [35] Question: What is the outlook for the bond market in July? - The bond market's performance in July will depend on RMB exchange rate pressures, with limited downside if the pressure is high [37]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - US manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.2, below the previous value and expectations, indicating a continued downward trend in economic fundamentals amid slower-than-expected inflation cooling [5] - Global manufacturing PMI for May rose to 50.9, showing a divergence in global manufacturing performance, with China declining, emerging markets expanding, Europe bottoming out, Germany improving, the US declining, Japan and South Korea recovering, and India performing well [5] - US CPI for April showed core CPI growth at 0.3% month-on-month, the lowest in three years, easing concerns about a "no landing" scenario and secondary inflation risks [25] - US non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, with education and health services, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and government sectors being the main contributors [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Exports to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America performed better in May, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, exceeding the expected 6.4% [10] - Exports of household appliances, consumer electronics, and semiconductor-related products performed relatively well, with the contribution of electronics and semiconductors to exports rising from 0.77% to 1.12% [10] - The export growth rate is expected to fluctuate more in Q3, with a possible negative growth in Q3 and a low single-digit positive growth for the full year [10] Market Data and Key Metrics - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate, and deposit facility rate by 25bps to 4.25%, 4.50%, and 3.75% respectively, in line with market expectations [7] - The ECB maintained its forecast of two more rate cuts within the year, with no rate cut expected in July [7] - The US dollar index is expected to remain strong during the election year, with a unified government potentially benefiting the dollar index more than a divided government [31] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on export opportunities to Europe, particularly in light industry, electrical equipment, household appliances, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and general machinery [15][22] - The company is monitoring the rightward shift in the European Parliament elections, which may lead to a downward revision of export expectations for "new three" products (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells) [13] - The company is optimistic about the recovery of the European economy, with potential valuation repair in European stocks as the economy stabilizes [22] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Prospects - The company expects the US inflation trend to remain sticky, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates only once or not at all within the year [25] - The company anticipates that the US labor market will continue to cool slowly, with the Federal Reserve prioritizing inflation control and unlikely to cut rates within the year [28] - The company predicts that long-term US Treasury yields will fluctuate around 4%, with real interest rates unlikely to decline significantly [34][40] Other Important Information - The company highlights the potential for Bitcoin to outperform gold and the US dollar in the medium to long term, driven by global liquidity changes, risk appetite, and technological advancements [77] - The company expects oil prices to fluctuate around $85-90 per barrel, with a potential increase in the latter half of the year due to supply-demand tightness and OPEC+ efforts to support prices [66][68] - The company notes that copper prices may face downward pressure in Q3 due to a strong US dollar, but a sustained upward trend will depend on the economic recovery post-rate cuts [71] Summary of Q&A Session - No specific Q&A session details were provided in the document.

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - Japan's inflation level is steadily rising, with expectations for another interest rate hike in July 2024 due to "re-inflation" pressures [1] - The Bank of Japan may face challenges in tightening monetary policy as the economy struggles to recover, necessitating a balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation [1] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - In the U.S., the GDP growth rate was revised down from an initial estimate of 1.6% to 1.3% for Q1 2024, with personal consumption growth also adjusted down to 2% [4][7] - Private consumption, which constitutes about 45% of GDP, showed resilience with a growth rate of 3.9%, indicating structural strengths despite overall economic slowdown [4] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The U.S. trade deficit widened in April 2024, with imports increasing by 2.4% and exports growing by 2.5%, reflecting a shift in demand dynamics [10] - In the Eurozone, the actual GDP growth rate for Q1 2024 was 0.3%, driven primarily by household consumption and net exports, while investment showed a decline [20][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a slowdown in growth momentum, with private consumption likely to be suppressed as excess savings are depleted [15] - The Eurozone is focusing on fiscal discipline while also promoting government investment growth, with the European Parliament passing reforms to limit deficits and debts [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management highlighted that the U.S. economy is facing increased uncertainty, with consumer confidence declining significantly in May 2024 [4] - In Japan, the management noted that the economy is hindered by short-term disruptions, with consumer sentiment weakening and private investment remaining low [47][49] Other Important Information - The U.S. commercial real estate sector is under pressure, with rising vacancy rates and declining property values, raising concerns about financial stability among smaller banks [19] - The Eurozone's inflation showed signs of rebound in May 2024, with the harmonized CPI increasing to 2.6%, indicating potential challenges for monetary policy [25] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What are the expectations for U.S. economic growth in the coming quarters? - The U.S. GDP growth is projected to be around 1.8% for Q3 2024, with a full-year growth rate of approximately 2.1%, reflecting a decline from the previous year [18] Question: How is the Eurozone managing its economic recovery? - The Eurozone is experiencing a slow recovery, with private consumption and investment being the main growth drivers, while government spending remains stable [30] Question: What are the risks associated with the commercial real estate market in the U.S.? - The commercial real estate market is facing significant risks due to high vacancy rates and reliance on leveraged financing, which could impact the broader economy [19]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 一、公司概况及财务表现 永泰能源成立于1998年，上市代码600157，形成煤炭、电力、储能和石化的综合能源布局， 主营业务为煤炭和电力。 2021年上半年净利润预计为11.6亿元至12.6亿元，同比增长15%至25%。 其中二季度净利润为7亿至8亿，同比增长17%至30%，环比一季度增长近50%至70%。 二、煤炭板块及相关项目 公司煤炭板块总产能规模为1,910万吨/年，其中在产焦煤矿产能为1,110万吨/年。 海子滩煤矿预计产能将达到1,000万吨/年，2027年产能规模预计突破2,000万吨/年。 公司拥有15 座焦煤矿，煤炭资源量达38.29亿吨，包括优质焦煤 9.2亿吨，动力煤29.07 亿吨。 一季度焦煤平均售价为1916元/吨，生产成本约820元/吨。 三、电力业务及市场表现 电力业务自去年下半年持续扭亏为盈，今年效益持续增长。 公司控股装机规模918万千瓦，参股装机规模400万千瓦。 一季度发电量达100亿千瓦时，同比增长近15%，供热量同比增长近30%。 二三年燃煤机组平均供电能耗为295.65克每千瓦时，低于全国平均水平7.75克 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 恒立液压 原文 20240626_ 2024年06月28日00:20 发言人 00:00 公司的一个情况。然后后面的话我们来做这个QA的交流。张总，好的，好，谢谢郑总。其实 应该说刚刚提到说这个Q1，Q一其实应该说我们前面也跟大家做过一些交流那基本上就是说还 是同比是但挖掘机相关的可能这个会有所下滑，但是我们的一些非标板块确实做了一些补充。 所以整个一季度这个收入利润上面总体是有小幅的一个下滑。其实这个二季度也基本上已经结 束了。 发言人 00:45 其实整体看下来，包括行业的数据，行业的数据其实在六月份他预期的还是不错的对吧？整个 环比1到5月份的这个项目也在收窄，而且国内同比例实现了一个相对还不错的一个增长，出 口的降幅在收窄，所以总体整个二季度行业的表现还是不错的。那么我们自己总体来讲应该说 环比一季度要稍微好一些。因为这个本身虽然说这个挖掘机相关的一些产品，可能相对来讲还 是偏弱那么一点点。总体因为我们有这个规划层的一些补充，所以我们整个二季度应该相对来 讲还是不错的。虽然说去年的二季度还是一个相对比较高的一个基数，就是说整个的上半年的 情况， ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 北汽蓝谷 原文 20240626_ 2024年06月27日20:27 发言人 00:00 他会想的王总简单简单介绍一下北汽蓝浦半年报的基本经营情况和跟华为合作的情况，可以 吗？是这样，因为半年到现在还没到销售的时间，可能半年报相关的信息这边就不太方便跟大 家去分享了。然后公司其他的相关的信息到时候可以跟大家去分享一下，要不我就用几分钟给 公司一些信息带来。 发言人 00:21 哦哦哦行，那我给大家梳理一下，就我们公司自从现在跟华为合作以后，现在公司旗下是有三 大品牌。分别是按照时间相关顺序，分别是北京品牌、洗护品牌和化妆品牌。化妆品牌就是指 的我们跟华为合作的这个品牌。 发言人 00:35 北京品牌如果之前有投资人关注我们公司的话，应该相对来说是比较熟悉了。我们之前在2019 年也是做过连续七年的一个销冠。我们其中的北京品牌的EU5，之前也是被大家赞誉为网约神 车，这个车现在也一直在售。这个北京品牌现在的话可能80%到90%都是对公市场。就是我们 ...

深南电路 20240627_原文 2024年06月27日 23:32 发言人 00:00 这个TMTVI相关的中期策略会，我们这次很荣幸的请到了深南电路的两位领导，谢总和郭总为我们做一个 分享和交流。欢迎两位领导。首先请介绍一下，近期的经营情况。好的，收到。也非常感谢各位投资人能 够来参加本次交流。上面我是深南电路的IR郭家旭。 发言人 00:33 下面就由我为大家简单的回顾一下公司近期以来的整体的一些经营情况。首先从我们今年 3月份以来到至 今看的话，其实整个二季度看过公司的产能。如果是从生产经营层面看产能利用率的话，其实也是还是也 是是处于一个相对比较近两年相对较高的一个水平。如果是从分业务来去看的话，我们看到我们PC低的各 个工厂综合来看，它的加工率大概会在85到90之间。个别的一些工厂可能会到90 90以上这样一个相对 较高的水平。那这里面的话我们比比一季度来看，还是会有几个百分点的这样一个提升。这一方面也是因 为我们Q一首先是有这样一个春节假期的因素，Q2它是一个比较完整的这种生产季节。其次也是会看到 从下游的需求上面受到这种AI的这样一些因素驱动的一些。我们包括在有限的数有限疏通方面，光模块、 交 ...