Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The document discusses the implications of the inclusion of notable Chinese companies, such as Tencent and CATL, on the US Department of Defense's list of "Chinese military companies (CMCs)" as of January 6, 2024 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Impact of Inclusion on Share Prices**: Historically, companies added to the "CMC" list have experienced a flat return, underperforming the market by an average of 8% in the three months following their inclusion. In extreme cases, companies facing outright investment bans have seen share price drawdowns averaging 23% over one year [1][3]. - **Investor Sentiment**: The inclusion of companies in the "CMC" list may create investor uncertainties, potentially leading to short-term pressure on share prices. However, some high-quality companies, like China Mobile, have shown less severe drawdowns [3]. - **Geopolitical Concerns**: Geopolitical uncertainties are expected to exert near-term pressure on Chinese equities. Despite this, foreign investors are showing increased interest in the Chinese equity markets due to stronger policy support from the government [4]. - **Market Outlook**: A positive return of 9% for MSCI China is anticipated in 2025 as fundamentals are expected to improve throughout the year [4]. Additional Important Content - **Regulatory Measures**: The document outlines various US government measures against Chinese companies, including export controls and investment bans. Inclusion in the "CMC" list does not automatically lead to inclusion in the more restrictive NS-CMIC list [2]. - **Shareholder Composition**: The document provides data on the percentage of shares held by US investors in newly added companies, indicating varying levels of foreign investment [10]. - **Valuation and Risk Factors**: The report mentions the use of various valuation methods for stocks in the Hong Kong and mainland China markets, highlighting risks such as a potential hard landing in the property market and capital outflows due to currency depreciation [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications for the Chinese equity market and the specific companies affected by recent regulatory changes.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 8 January 2025 | 2:51PM HKT China: Policymakers unveiled implementation details for the 2025 "dual upgrade" plan to boost consumption Bottom line: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), together with several other ministries, held a press conference today to unveil the implementation details for the consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade program (the "dual upgrade" program) in 2025. Policymakers highlighted that the "dual upgrade" program proved ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 The Energy sector underperformed sharply in 2H 2024. Looking ahead, we still recognise headwinds, but much is now priced in. We raise our sector view from 'Cautious' to 'In-Line'. Shell and Equinor replace TotalEnergies and Eni as Overweights. We lower our rating on Repsol to Underweight. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: After a sharp de-rating, relative valuation looks compelling again | M 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 | | Idea | | --- | --- | --- | | January 7, 20 ...

8 January 2025 Technology Strategy and Quantitative Research 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Technology Strategy: The $26T Question - What to do with Tech in 2025? Our recommendations A.M. (Toni) Sacconaghi, Jr. +1 212 407 5843 sacconaghi@bernsteinsg.com Ann Larson +1 212 756 4235 ann.larson@bernsteinsg.com Daniel Zhu +1 212 969 6072 daniel.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Lavnik Balyan +1 917 344 8563 lavnik.balyan@bernsteinsg.com 2024 was another outstanding year for tech, with outperformance concentrated enti ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 04:00 AM GMT China Internet | Asia Pacific 2025 Outlook – Equity Implications: OTAs and Entertainment We maintain our preferences for OTAs despite TCOM's notable outperformance over the past two years. We upgrade NTES to OW as its strong PC game pipeline should drive an earnings turnaround. We roll our valuations forward to December 2025 from mid-2025, with a new USD/ CNY assumption of 7.6 as per our macro economic team's forecast. We also extend our D ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research US Building 2025: The Year Ahead - Gut Check Time We are constructive on the Homebuilder set up for 2025 We view the setup for homebuilder stocks in 2025 favorably and believe market sentiment has rapidly shifted towards peak pessimism, which often creates the most attractive buying opportunities for the group. According to the UBS HOLT team's proprietary valuation metrics (Figure 75) the builders are n ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 7, 2025 09:02 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Japan M Foundation Housing & Real Estate: Our Take on Brisk Office Market and Inflation Wave We believe that developers announcing new medium-term plans will boost expectations for improved Industry View In-Line governance and profit growth beyond inflation. We forecast focus on offices as lagging beneficiaries of inflation. We expect increasing inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy due to rising wages, and ...

Summary of Zijin Mining Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zijin Mining Group (Ticker: 2899.HK) - **Market Cap**: US$55.335 billion - **Current Share Price**: HK$14.62 (as of January 8, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$22.90 - **52-Week Range**: HK$10.70 - HK$20.10 - **Average Daily Trading Value**: US$84.6 million Key Industry Insights Lithium Project - Manono - **Project Location**: DR Congo - **Core Discussion**: Investors inquired about the Manono lithium project, which is seen as pivotal for Zijin's lithium strategy - **Cost Competitiveness**: The project aims to achieve competitive operating costs within the top 50 percentile of global mines, leveraging its sizeable resources to lower costs effectively [1][4] Cost Management - **Cost Performance**: Despite global cost inflation, Zijin has managed to keep cost increases below peer levels - **Volume Growth**: Strong volume growth is contributing to better economics, and management is optimistic about improving recovery rates from mines, which is crucial for cost reduction [2] Copper Market Outlook - **2024 Expectations**: Management anticipates a surprising year for copper supply and demand, with production growth at 2% and demand growth exceeding 4%, driven by unexpected demand in China - **2025 Projections**: A slowdown in growth is expected, with production growth decelerating to 2-3% and demand growth slowing to 2% [3] Additional Considerations Risks - **Upside Risks**: Potential for stronger copper prices due to robust demand or supply disruptions in key copper-producing countries, along with volume increases from project ramp-ups [10] - **Downside Risks**: Risks include weaker copper prices from deteriorating economic data, project execution misses, and geopolitical risks that could disrupt production [10] Analyst Ratings - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Industry View**: Attractive - **Valuation Methodology**: Base case DCF model with a WACC of 7.5% and a steady-state revenue growth rate of 3% per annum [8] Conclusion Zijin Mining Group is strategically positioned in the lithium and copper markets, with a focus on cost management and growth potential. The Manono project is a key asset that could enhance its competitive edge in the lithium sector. The outlook for copper remains cautiously optimistic, with potential risks that investors should monitor closely.

Disclosures & Disclaimer 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 8 January 2025 China Real Estate Equities 100 days into easing 10 key observations after 100 days into policy easing: Key stocks Company Ticker Currency Price TP Rating Upside Market cap (USDbn) 3m ADTV (USDm) CR Land 1109 HK HKD 22.15 35.60 Buy 60.7% 20.3 64 Yuexiu 123 HK HKD 4.93 8.20 Buy 66.3% 2.6 14.6 Longfor 960 HK HKD 9.90 20.50 Buy 107.1% 8.8 49.4 KE Holdings BEKE US USD 17.74 30.40 Buy 71.4% 21.4 187.6 CR Mixc 1209 HK HKD 27.60 44.20 B ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The document pertains to the global economic outlook and investment strategies as presented by JPMorgan Chase's Global Research Department for the year 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Resilience**: The global economy is expected to remain resilient despite slowing inflation rates and high inflation levels, which limit the scope for central bank policy easing. The baseline forecast anticipates a slowdown in global growth from 2.7% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025, with core inflation remaining close to 3% [12][41][43]. 2. **U.S. Economic Leadership**: The U.S. is projected to continue as the global growth engine, supported by a healthy labor market and robust credit fundamentals. The anticipated GDP growth for the U.S. is expected to decrease from 2.4% to 2.0% in 2025 [12][41]. 3. **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Relations**: The potential increase in tariffs on Chinese goods to 60% could significantly impact China's economic growth, reducing it from 4.8% to 3.2% [12][41]. 4. **Divergent Monetary Policies**: Central banks are expected to adopt less synchronized monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve projected to cut rates by 100 basis points to 3.75% by the end of 2025 [13][41]. 5. **Market Differentiation**: The U.S. stock market is expected to experience more pronounced differentiation due to varying earnings growth and investor positioning, with a target for the S&P 500 index set at 6,500 points for 2025 [21][41]. 6. **Commodity Outlook**: The outlook for commodities is mixed, with a bearish stance on oil and base metals due to weak supply-demand fundamentals, while a bullish outlook on gold is maintained [24][41]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: The document highlights that geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties could lead to increased macroeconomic volatility, impacting investment strategies [8][11]. 2. **Investor Sentiment**: There is a noted shift in investor sentiment towards equities, with a significant increase in stock allocations, reflecting a strong belief in a soft landing scenario despite potential risks [35][39]. 3. **Credit Market Outlook**: The credit market is expected to show a mixed outlook, with investment-grade bond spreads expected to widen slightly while high-yield spreads are anticipated to increase [41]. 4. **Inflation Dynamics**: The report emphasizes that inflation dynamics will vary significantly across countries, influenced by both demand and supply-side factors, which will play a crucial role in shaping future monetary policy [43][44]. 5. **Emerging Markets Caution**: A cautious approach is advised for emerging market fixed income, particularly in light of potential currency pressures and limited capacity for rate cuts among central banks [24][41]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and arguments presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated economic landscape and investment strategies for 2025.