Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Indian power sector, focusing on electricity demand, supply, and infrastructure. * **Key Companies**: NTPC Ltd., Adani Green Energy Ltd., ReNew Power, Power Finance Corp Ltd., Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd., IEX, and Adani Green Energy Ltd. Key Themes and Observations * **Power Demand and Supply**: * **Demand**: Expected to grow at 0.9x real GDP in FY26, with rooftop solar expected to erode net demand growth by 15-20%. * **Supply**: Shortages expected to continue in CY25, with potential for easing in the second half due to increased thermal capacity. * **Battery Storage**: Expected to play a significant role, with 3 GW of battery tenders in 2024 and significant potential for growth in CY25. * **Renewables**: Expected to see a slowdown in tendering due to transmission charges and import barriers. * **Transmission**: Grid capex plans have peaked, with limited room for further government estimates to increase. * **DISCOMs**: Key metrics have worsened, but there is a belief in directional improvement due to central government push. * **Solar PV**: Brighter outlook for solar cells, with potential for higher profits due to strong government stance and challenges in importing equipment from China. * **Valuations**: All preferred names are below or in-line with global median. * **Investment Implications**: * **Outperform**: NTPC, ReNew Power, Power Finance Corp Ltd., Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd. * **Underperform**: IEX, Adani Green Energy Ltd. Detailed Analysis * **Power Demand**: * Expected to grow at 0.9x real GDP in FY26, with rooftop solar expected to erode net demand growth by 15-20%. * Demand growth expected to slow down to 0.8x real GDP in FY25 due to cooler weather expectations, high base, and impact of rooftop solar. * Long-term view of 1x real GDP growth for India's power demand. * **Power Supply**: * Shortages expected to continue in CY25, with potential for easing in the second half due to increased thermal capacity. * Limited dispatchable supply expected to meet incremental non-solar power demand. * Significant potential for growth in battery storage and renewables. * **Battery Storage**: * 3 GW of battery tenders in 2024, with significant potential for growth in CY25. * Battery prices expected to continue to decline, making storage more affordable. * Potential for impact on new pumped storage, wind generation, and thermal plants. * **Renewables**: * Expected to see a slowdown in tendering due to transmission charges and import barriers. * Transmission charges to apply to renewable plants commissioned after June 2025. * Potential for higher costs for DISCOMs, leading to lower interest in signing PPAs and for new tenders. * **Transmission**: * Grid capex plans have peaked, with limited room for further government estimates to increase. * NEP-II on transmission has Rs 9 trillion plan considering ~460 GW of generation capacity addition. * Potential for increased tendering activity in the short term. * **DISCOMs**: * Key metrics have worsened, with rising AT&C losses and limited tariff hikes. * Belief in directional improvement due to central government push. * **Solar PV**: * Brighter outlook for solar cells, with potential for higher profits due to strong government stance and challenges in importing equipment from China. * Entry of Reliance could be a key negative for solar modules. * Industry checks suggest a very tight market with 'domestic cells' selling at 16-17 cents/w. Conclusion The Indian power sector is expected to face challenges in the short term, with demand growth expected to slow down and supply shortages continuing. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, with significant potential for growth in battery storage, renewables, and transmission infrastructure. The report provides a detailed analysis of the key themes and investment implications for various companies in the sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Software** industry, particularly the performance and outlook of major software companies in 2024 and beyond [1][3][13]. Core Themes and Insights - **AI and Cloud Sentiment**: The enthusiasm for AI that peaked in late 2023 has shifted to skepticism in 2024, with concerns about the return on investment (ROI) and the sharp increase in capital expenditures (CAPEX) without clear revenue visibility [1][16]. - **Growth Deceleration**: Investors are analyzing the reasons behind growth deceleration in some software companies and questioning when generative AI (Gen AI) will become a significant revenue driver [1][3][16]. - **Oracle's Performance**: Oracle has emerged as a top pick due to its strong positioning in cloud services, particularly with its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), cloud database, and Software as a Service (SaaS) offerings [2][19]. - **Microsoft's Visibility**: Microsoft remains a focal point for investors, with multiple earnings notes indicating its importance across various software sectors. The company is seen as a bellwether for the industry [3][19]. Key Companies Mentioned - **Oracle**: Recognized for its defensive growth and idiosyncratic growth drivers, becoming the 1 inbound name for investors in the second half of 2024 [2][19]. - **Microsoft**: Noted for its significant role in the software market, with multiple earnings notes highlighting its AI initiatives and cloud transition [3][19]. - **Salesforce, Adobe, and SAP**: These companies are also under scrutiny as investors seek to understand their growth trajectories and challenges [3][19]. Investment Ratings - The report rates several companies as follows: - **Outperform**: Adobe, Microsoft, MongoDB, Oracle, SAP, Workday - **Market-Perform**: Snowflake - **Underperform**: Salesforce.com [7][24]. Additional Insights - **CAPEX Concerns**: There is a significant focus on the CAPEX trends among major tech companies, with projections indicating over $1 trillion in spending over the next five years, primarily directed towards AI initiatives [22]. - **Cloud Transition**: The ERP market is highlighted as being early in its cloud transition, presenting opportunities for growth among major software vendors [23]. - **Macro Environment**: The uncertain macroeconomic landscape has led to increased interest in how macro factors impact software companies, with volatility creating both challenges and opportunities [24]. Conclusion - The conference call reflects a cautious yet strategic outlook for the software industry, emphasizing the need for investors to navigate the complexities of AI investments, cloud transitions, and macroeconomic influences while identifying potential winners and losers in the evolving landscape [1][3][16][19].

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Manufacturing * **Company**: Not specified * **Location**: China Key Points 1. **Caixin Manufacturing PMI**: The December Caixin manufacturing PMI fell 1.0 point to 50.5, below expectations and largely reversing the rise in November. The output component fell 2.7 points to 50.5, and the new order component fell 1.4 points to 51.5. The new export orders component fell notably by 2.9 points to 48.6, the second lowest reading since September 2023. [2] 2. **NBS Manufacturing PMI**: The NBS manufacturing PMI showed a modest easing, with the output component falling 0.3 point to 52.1. The new order component rose 0.2 point to 51.0 in December. [5] 3. **Mixed Signals**: The Caixin and NBS PMIs have shown similar trends in the past three months, likely reflecting ongoing domestic policy support and growing concerns on external sector uncertainty and potential US tariff hike. [3] 4. **Domestic Demand Outlook**: The new orders component for the NBS PMI rose in December, suggesting steady domestic demand outlook amid policy support. [5] 5. **Export Sector Sentiment**: The export orders component for the Caixin PMI fell notably in December, reflecting heightened concerns of external sector uncertainty and potential US tariff hike. [5] 6. **Pricing Environment**: Both PMI reports showed generally weak pricing conditions, with ongoing PPI deflation pressure on the domestic economy and the export sector's pricing conditions weakening amid intense competition. [7] 7. **Economic Outlook**: The forecast for a solid sequential recovery in 4Q24 to 6.9% q/q saar (or 4.9%oya in 4Q vs. 4.6%oya in 3Q) remains unchanged. The full-year 2024 real GDP growth forecast is 4.84%, with a final outcome likely to be either 4.8% or 4.9% y/y. [8] 8. **Nominal GDP Growth**: Nominal GDP growth slowed to 4.1%oya in the first three quarters of 2024 and will likely print at 4.0% for the full-year, the second-worst reading since the data release in the 1990s. [8] 9. **Policy Adjustments**: Policy adjustments need to provide support for real economic activity, deal with deflationary pressure, and improve economic rebalancing, especially by improving household income, supporting domestic demand, and stabilizing private sector sentiment. [8]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 2 January 2025 | | shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： | 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： | | | | 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 | | 2 January 2025 | | | | FX Market | | Currencies Global | | | | | December | 2024 shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | Main Events | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： ◆ Fed cuts by 25bp to 4.25-4.50%; median "dot plot" projections | Paul Mackel | | | | | | | Global Head of FX Research 手调研纪要 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 2 January 2025 | 9:03AM CST China New Energy Vehicle Weekly Chartbook 2024 Week 52 - 47% NEV penetration; NEV/ICE dealer discount widened wow Bottom line: Intensifying price competition into year-end with widening dealer discount. A curated compilation of the most topical charts on weekly passenger vehicle market performance organized into the following categories: (1) PV and NEV industry weekly insurance registration volume/penetration, (2) Key NEV brands' weekly insurance regi ...

Summary of Geely Automobile Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Geely Automobile Holdings - **Industry**: Automotive - **Region**: Asia Pacific Key Points 2025 Sales Targets - Geely aims to achieve **2.71 million vehicle sales** in 2025, representing a **25% year-over-year (YoY)** increase [1] - Breakdown by brand: - Geely core brand: **2 million units** (+20% YoY) - ZEEKR: **320,000 units** (+44% YoY) - Lynk & Co: **390,000 units** (+37% YoY) - New Energy Vehicles (NEV) are expected to constitute **over 55%** of total sales and become profitable in 2025 [1][2] Overseas Sales Strategy - Geely plans to sell **467,000 vehicles overseas** (+15% YoY), with: - Geely + Galaxy: **400,000 units** - Lynk + ZEEKR: **67,000 to 70,000 units** - Key growth regions include Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa [2] New Model Launches - Geely's core brand will introduce a new NEV model every **two months** starting March 2025, including: - **Two SUVs** and **three sedans** - ZEEKR will launch three models in 2025: - A shooting brake BEV in **Q2** - A full-sized SUV PHEV in **Q3** - A mid-to-large size SUV PHEV in **Q4** - Lynk will introduce one SUV and one sedan PHEV in **Q2** and **Q3** respectively [3] Production Capacity - Completion of KD (knock-down) plants is expected to add **100,000 units** to production capacity [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the fiscal years: - **2023**: Rmb 179,204 million - **2024**: Rmb 224,371 million - **2025**: Rmb 292,996 million - **2026**: Rmb 327,483 million - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates: - **2023**: Rmb 0.53 - **2024**: Rmb 0.71 - **2025**: Rmb 0.90 - **2026**: Rmb 1.10 [5] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include: - A slowdown in domestic vehicle demand - Expanding losses in NEV businesses due to price competition - Challenges in overseas sales from competition and protectionism [11] Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley rates Geely as **Overweight** with a price target of **HK$11.20** [5] Additional Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing existing models with upgrades in electronic architecture, smart driving, and overall driving performance [3]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 02 January 2025 China wind power – blowing in the wind Applying AI to identify wind power stock opportunities: generation decline in December could be a negative event We apply machine learning techniques to predict China wind farms' monthly power generation using weather data. Power generation for wind farms is a function of installed capacity and wind energy available (fairly consistent in the long term). However, monthly wind speed ...

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 02 January 2025 China/Hong Kong Monthly Wrap Dec 2024: the fourth year is the charm In 2024, China and HK equity indices reversed course after a three-year correction. MXCN/HSI/HSCEI/HSTECH rose by +2.7%/+3.4%/+5.1%/+2.8% in USD during December, for USD price returns of +16%/+18%/+27%/+19% during 2024. MXCN's large-cap high yielders were well bid as the 10Y CGB yield dipped to a record low of 1.68% (Figure 4Southbnd iflowsnt HKlised hgyilers & Figure 5MXCN andMXHK: Cy ...

1. Can valuations go any higher? We asked this question a year ago and it is even 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 31 December 2024 | 11:48AM EST End of YEAR Market Intelligence: what a(nother) year! US stocks are trading lower on Tuesday, but still on pace for a ~23.6% gain for the year (for the S&P 500 as of 11:30 AM ET today) as investors have been navigating a steadily growing US economy, and end to the Fed's rate hiking cycle (starting in July), and a continued concentration of market cap (and market share ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 USA | Digital Infrastructure 2025 Digital Infrastructure Outlook — Data Center Mania; Moving to Hold on CCI We are in the very early innings of data center demand driven by AI. We expect power limitations, supply chain bottlenecks on new construction, and continued increases in market rents. For Towers, domestic carrier capex investment in 5G has disappointed. Our top picks into '25 are DLR for Data Centers and AMT for Towers. We are downgrading CCI to a Hold, as a sale of the F ...