Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan Global Economic Research Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the global economy, focusing on growth and inflation trends, particularly in the United States and Western Europe [2][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - The global economy is starting the year with above-potential growth and elevated inflation, despite mixed signals from recent reports [2][11]. - The global all-industry PMI and US employment gains have moderated, but both indicate encouraging growth momentum [2][11]. - A recovery is noted in the manufacturing sector and Western Europe, with the PMI showing an upward trajectory in orders and employment [2][11]. - Western European inflation is expected to moderate, but recent reports suggest that the pace of disinflation may have been overstated [3][11]. - The US CPI is anticipated to show firm core inflation at 0.23% month-over-month, with headline inflation influenced by food and energy prices [3][11]. - The Trump administration's policies are expected to influence economic performance, with a balance between curtailing trade and reducing the tax burden on businesses [4][11]. - Risks remain regarding the potential for unbalanced trade policies, which could negatively impact business sentiment and economic growth [5][11]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report highlights the potential for tariffs to act as a tax on household purchasing power, which could dampen consumer confidence [20][11]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a noisy lift, with a 4% annualized jump in factory output, but caution is advised due to risks of a global trade war [22][23][11]. - Euro area risks have been trimmed, with Germany showing improvement in industrial data, although concerns about a US trade war persist [26][11]. - The report discusses the implications of tariff increases on Mexico and Canada, suggesting that if 25% tariffs are imposed, both economies could slide into recession [20][11]. - The report anticipates a gradual increase in tariffs on China, potentially reaching 60% by the second half of 2025, which could alter growth profiles significantly [27][11]. Economic Forecasts - The report provides GDP growth forecasts for various regions, with the US expected to grow by 2.8% in 2025 and Canada by 1.3% [29][11]. - Inflation forecasts indicate a divergence between the US and Euro area, with the US experiencing higher inflation rates [15][16][29][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Global Economic Research call, focusing on the current economic landscape, potential risks, and forecasts for growth and inflation across different regions.

Haibin Zhu (852) 2800-7039 haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch Grace Ng (852) 2800-7002 grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com Greater China The baseline assumption in our 2025 outlook released last November was that the U.S. would increase tariffs on China from 20% to 60% in 1H (announced in 1Q and effective in 2Q); tariffs would increase for China's transshipments via Vietnam and Malaysia; but there would be no tariff increases elsewher ...

Global Commodities Research 07 February 2025 Oil Markets Weekly: Monroe doctrine revival: neutral now, potential to turn bearish At Any Rate: Global Natural Gas: Increased Russian pipeline gas to Europe? After the start of the week was dominated by headlines regarding US import tariffs to be imposed on China, Mexico, and Canada, the Trump Administration has seemingly moved on, turning its focus on policies pertaining to Iran and bringing the Russia/ Ukraine war to an end. For the global gas market, a negoti ...

7 February 2025 Price Target Change China SMID Internet, Global Hotel & Leisure China Travel/OTA: Resilient with no surprises....what the data tells us about Chinese New Year travel trends Boris Van +852 2918 5753 boris.van@bernsteinsg.com Richard J. Clarke, FCA +44 207 170 0536 richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Ting Ming Neo +852 2123 2554 tingming.neo@bernsteinsg.com Kate Xiao, CFA +44 207 170 5121 kate.xiao@bernsteinsg.com The much anticipated Chinese New Year travel figures are mostly out - headline number ...

CITI'S TAKE We expect Meituan to report 4Q24 by end-Mar and expect in-line result with possible slight upside on core-local commerce Op. Into 1Q25/2025E, investors are concerned about on-demand delivery volume growth, unit- economics trend amid high-base, potential revival of competition in local services and margins drag from its accelerated pace of overseas expansion initiatives. Keeta has progressed rapidly in topping download chart in Saudi Arabia, which we believe could prompt Keeta to expand into othe ...

February 7, 2025 05:00 AM GMT In this note we provide a list of considerations and relevant data points for investors looking to assess environmental and social (E&S) impacts of recent tariffs news (10% additional tariff on imports from China that went into effect this week and a 25% tariff on most goods imported from Canada and Mexico targeted to go into effect in early March). Overall, whether supply chains can diversify and/or tariffs drive demand destruction (as opposed to margin pressure for businesses ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the hyperscaler industry, particularly major players like Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) in North America - The total capital expenditure (capex) forecast for these hyperscalers is projected to be $315 billion in 2025 and $367 billion in 2026, reflecting a significant investment trend in generative AI (GenAI) and large language models (LLMs) [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Capex Growth**: The 2025 capex estimates have increased by 10% ($28 billion) compared to previous forecasts, with notable increases for GOOGL (20% increase) and META (13% increase) [2][7] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF) Impact**: FCF numbers for GOOGL, META, and AMZN have fallen by over 20% year-to-date due to higher spending, emphasizing the need for these companies to demonstrate material incremental engagement revenue and return on invested capital (ROIC) through GenAI [1][2] - **Investment in GenAI**: The emphasis on GenAI is critical as it is expected to drive future revenue growth and operational efficiency across these platforms [1][2][3] Financial Projections - **Hyperscaler Capex Estimates**: - AMZN: $82 billion in 2025, $98 billion in 2026 - GOOGL: $75 billion in 2025, $90 billion in 2026 - META: $65 billion in 2025, $76 billion in 2026 - MSFT: $92 billion in 2025, $103 billion in 2026 - Total Hyperscaler Capex: $315 billion in 2025, $367 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% from 2023 to 2026 [3][7] - **Year-over-Year Growth**: The year-over-year growth rates for capex are projected at 39% for 2025 and 17% for 2026, following a 70% growth in 2024 [8][9] Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall industry view remains attractive, with a consensus rating distribution showing 79% overweight and 21% equal-weight for the major players [5][20] - **Risks and Opportunities**: The report highlights potential risks such as slower ad revenue growth and macroeconomic pressures, but also points to opportunities in AI-driven innovations and increased engagement across platforms [29][38] - **Investment Drivers**: Key drivers for investment include the structural pivot towards efficiency in companies like META, ongoing improvements in ad monetization, and the potential for new AI products to enhance revenue streams [36][45] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, focusing on the hyperscaler industry, financial projections, and strategic insights regarding the major players involved.

Summary of US Semiconductors Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the US semiconductor industry, specifically discussing sales data and forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [1][9][26]. Key Points December Sales Performance - December semiconductor sales reached $59.1 billion, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.8% but falling short of the seasonal expectation of 1.8% [1][10]. - The sales were above the forecasted estimate of $55.1 billion, which represented a month-over-month decline of 6.6% [1][10]. - Year-over-year, December sales increased by 14.1%, surpassing the estimated growth of 6.3% [2][10]. Unit Growth and Pricing - Units excluding discretes grew by 22.5% month-over-month, significantly exceeding the estimate of 5.9% and the seasonal growth of 7.4% [3][16]. - Year-over-year, units excluding discretes were up 8.2%, contrasting with the estimated decline of 6.5% [3][16]. - Average Selling Prices (ASPs) excluding discretes decreased by 18.7% month-over-month, which was below the expected decline of 12.2% and the seasonal decline of 5.8% [4][19]. - Year-over-year, ASPs rose by 6.7%, which was lower than the anticipated increase of 15.9% [4][19]. Sales Forecasts - For calendar year 2024, semiconductor sales were reported to be up 19.1% year-over-year, exceeding the previous forecast of 18% [1][5]. - The forecast for 2025 semiconductor sales has been raised from 9% to 13% year-over-year, amounting to $709.8 billion [6][24]. - The growth in 2025 is expected to be driven by below-seasonal growth in Q1 and seasonal growth in Q2, Q3, and Q4 [6][24]. Market Demand and Risks - Demand from data centers, AI, and communication markets, which collectively account for 30% of semiconductor demand, remains robust [7][26]. - There is an expectation of inventory replenishment in the analog segment in 2025 [7][26]. - The SOX index is currently trading at a 27X NTM P/E, which is a 22% premium over the S&P 500, indicating potential valuation risks for semiconductor stocks [26]. Segment Performance - Microcontroller sales saw a significant increase of 20.7% month-over-month, driven by higher unit sales [21]. - Conversely, microprocessor sales declined by 9.4% month-over-month, attributed to lower unit sales [20]. Additional Insights - The three-month rolling average sales for October to December 2024 were $57.0 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.1%, down from 20.3% in the previous period [11]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a mixed performance with strong unit growth but declining prices, which could impact future profitability [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data from the conference call regarding the US semiconductor industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

V i e w p o i n t | 07 Feb 2025 02:47:34 ET │ 26 pages Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas Macro Themes for the Tariff-Fatigued (And One That Is Not) CITI'S TAKE There is a lot going on outside of the threat of tariffs for various countries. A Ukraine peace deal could be discussed soon. We sell EURPLN. National security-driven tariffs may be put on various industries. We go long COMEX/LME copper basis. US banks' capital requirements may be eased. We counsel patience for US steepeners. The BoE is s ...

FICC Research Economics 7 February 2025 Global Economics Weekly The art of rapid deal-making Last-minute negotiations averted tariffs on Mexico and Canada for now, showing a still-transactional Trump. But the trade war with China has begun and Trump's attention is expanding to the EU and geopolitical deals. Meanwhile, payrolls indicate a robust US labour market ahead of next week's CPI. Global Synthesis The art of rapid deal-making. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...