Summary of Goldman Sachs China Basic Materials 2025 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the outlook for the China Basic Materials sector in 2025, indicating a more favorable year compared to 2024 due to stabilizing domestic demand and supply discipline leading to improved pricing and margins [1][2]. Key Companies and Ratings - **Cement**: Upgraded Conch-H and CNBM to Buy from Neutral, with expected unit gross profit of Rmb88-90/t for Conch in 2025-26E, up from Rmb58/t in 2024E [12][13][81]. - **Coal**: Downgraded Chinacoal-H/A and Shenhua-A from Neutral to Sell, with expectations of a long-term correction in coal demand due to China's energy transition [12][13][92]. - **Aluminum**: Upgraded Chalco-H to Buy from Sell, with a revised price target reflecting improved pricing for alumina and bauxite [12][13][81]. - **Copper**: Maintained a positive outlook, expecting a 3.0% increase in demand in 2025E [12][13][124]. Demand Projections - Overall demand for China commodities is expected to grow between -3.5% to +3.0% in 2025, a significant improvement from -10.2% to +4.4% in 2024 [2][15]. - Key drivers for demand include infrastructure construction, property completion, and solar installation, with infrastructure expected to stabilize after a decline in 2024 [28][29]. Supply-Side Dynamics - Significant overcapacity exists in cement and steel, with estimates suggesting that 900 million tonnes of clinker capacity (40% of total) and nearly 400 million tonnes of steel capacity (30% of total) need to be removed to restore supply-demand balance [3][58][67]. - Current capacity utilization rates are 51% for cement and 72% for steel, with potential improvements expected through categorized management and enforcement of capacity exits [58][66]. Pricing and Margins - Cement prices are projected to recover, with gross profit margins expected to improve significantly in 2025 due to better capacity utilization and demand stabilization [12][13][81]. - Coal prices are expected to decline slightly, with thermal coal prices projected to average Rmb850/t in 2025, down from Rmb855/t in 2024 [12][13][95]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to lower fabrication exports, with a forecasted average price of US$1.07/lb in 2025 [12][13][123]. Risks and Considerations - Risks include weaker-than-expected demand in construction and infrastructure, slower-than-expected capacity exits, and potential increases in raw material costs [12][13][169][171]. - The transition to renewable energy sources poses a long-term risk to coal demand, with expectations of a decline in thermal coal demand for power generation by 5-22% by 2030E [2][92]. Conclusion - The outlook for the China Basic Materials sector in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, with expected improvements in demand and pricing for cement and aluminum, while coal faces long-term challenges due to energy transition policies. The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms and the need for capacity management to enhance profitability across the sector [1][12][13][92].

Summary of the Equity Research Report on China's Hog Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's hog industry, specifically the outlook for hog prices in 2025, which is expected to be on a downtrend [1][9]. Key Points Hog Price Trends - **4Q24 Expectations**: Hog prices were weaker than expected, with the average selling price (ASP) decreasing by approximately 9% compared to expectations. This decline is attributed to delayed hog production from 3Q to 4Q due to increased hog weights [2][10]. - **2025 Price Forecast**: The forecast for 2025 hog ASP has been lowered to RMB 15.0/kg from RMB 16.5/kg. This is due to an anticipated increase in hog supply as sow inventory rises, which will exert downward pressure on prices [3][29]. Financial Performance of Companies - **Earnings Estimates**: Net profit estimates for covered hog breeding companies have been revised. For example, Muyuan Foods' 2025 net profit estimate has been reduced by 25.3% [4][45]. - **Company Ratings**: - Muyuan Foods downgraded to Hold from Buy with a target price of RMB 39.00 [4][91]. - New Hope downgraded to Reduce from Hold with a target price of RMB 6.60 [4][109]. - Haid Group maintained as Buy with a target price of RMB 61.70 [4][77]. Cost and Profitability - **Cost Trends**: Breeding costs are expected to decline year-on-year in 2025 due to lower raw material prices and improved production indicators. Companies with effective cost control may still generate profits despite falling hog prices [3][30]. - **Capacity Utilization**: High leverage among companies is expected to lead to reduced capital expenditures and increased capacity utilization, which may help mitigate some of the impacts of lower prices [31]. Market Sentiment - **Investor Concerns**: The weaker-than-expected 4Q hog prices have raised concerns among investors regarding the profitability of hog breeding companies in 2025. The share prices of these companies have corrected by 12-18% since October 2024, compared to a 6% decline in the CSI 300 index [12][28]. Long-term Outlook - **2026 Projections**: If the hog price and costs align with expectations, the downtrend in hog prices may continue into 2026. However, if prices fall significantly below expectations, there may be a more positive outlook for 2026 [30][56]. Additional Insights - **Production Indicators**: The report highlights that the percentage of small pigs in production is decreasing, indicating a shift towards larger hogs, which may affect overall production dynamics [20]. - **Debt Levels**: The report notes that many hog breeding companies are operating with high debt levels, which poses risks if hog prices continue to decline [43]. Conclusion - The outlook for China's hog industry in 2025 is cautious, with expectations of declining prices and profitability for many companies. Investors are advised to monitor cost control measures and market conditions closely as the industry navigates these challenges.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research China Equity Strategy Implications of Chinese military companies list inclusion Some notable large cap names added to Chinese military companies list On 6 Jan 2024, the US Department of Defense added a number of notable listed Chinese companies such as Tencent and CATL to its list of "Chinese military companies (CMCs)" under section 1260H of the National Defense Authorization Act 2021. While the designation does not prohibit US person ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 7, 2025 09:02 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Japan M Foundation Housing & Real Estate: Our Take on Brisk Office Market and Inflation Wave We believe that developers announcing new medium-term plans will boost expectations for improved Industry View In-Line governance and profit growth beyond inflation. We forecast focus on offices as lagging beneficiaries of inflation. We expect increasing inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy due to rising wages, and ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 8 January 2025 | 2:51PM HKT China: Policymakers unveiled implementation details for the 2025 "dual upgrade" plan to boost consumption Bottom line: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), together with several other ministries, held a press conference today to unveil the implementation details for the consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade program (the "dual upgrade" program) in 2025. Policymakers highlighted that the "dual upgrade" program proved ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 The Energy sector underperformed sharply in 2H 2024. Looking ahead, we still recognise headwinds, but much is now priced in. We raise our sector view from 'Cautious' to 'In-Line'. Shell and Equinor replace TotalEnergies and Eni as Overweights. We lower our rating on Repsol to Underweight. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: After a sharp de-rating, relative valuation looks compelling again | M 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 | | Idea | | --- | --- | --- | | January 7, 20 ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research US Building 2025: The Year Ahead - Gut Check Time We are constructive on the Homebuilder set up for 2025 We view the setup for homebuilder stocks in 2025 favorably and believe market sentiment has rapidly shifted towards peak pessimism, which often creates the most attractive buying opportunities for the group. According to the UBS HOLT team's proprietary valuation metrics (Figure 75) the builders are n ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 04:00 AM GMT China Internet | Asia Pacific 2025 Outlook – Equity Implications: OTAs and Entertainment We maintain our preferences for OTAs despite TCOM's notable outperformance over the past two years. We upgrade NTES to OW as its strong PC game pipeline should drive an earnings turnaround. We roll our valuations forward to December 2025 from mid-2025, with a new USD/ CNY assumption of 7.6 as per our macro economic team's forecast. We also extend our D ...

8 January 2025 Technology Strategy and Quantitative Research 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Technology Strategy: The $26T Question - What to do with Tech in 2025? Our recommendations A.M. (Toni) Sacconaghi, Jr. +1 212 407 5843 sacconaghi@bernsteinsg.com Ann Larson +1 212 756 4235 ann.larson@bernsteinsg.com Daniel Zhu +1 212 969 6072 daniel.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Lavnik Balyan +1 917 344 8563 lavnik.balyan@bernsteinsg.com 2024 was another outstanding year for tech, with outperformance concentrated enti ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 本材料仅可分发给中国大陆的合格投资实体。这是对发布于2024年12月3日的英文报告的中文翻译。若原始报告和翻译版本报告之间存在任 何不一致之处，以原始英文版本为准。 分析师声明及重要披露，包括非美国分析师披露，见第57页。 摩根大通与其研究报告所覆盖的公司开展业务，或寻求与这些公司开展业务。因此，投资者应意识到其中可能存在利益冲突，进而可能会影响本报 告的客观性。投资者在做出投资决策时，本报告之观点应仅作为投资者的考虑因素之一。 {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIMxf0wZ0dcGpo04QSx1061BbSxSm3MleEgw}]} 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 | 目录 | | --- | | 前言 | 03 | | --- | --- | | 2025 年全球展望 | 04 | | 各类资产摘要 | 11 | | 经济 | 11 | | 股票 | 17 | | 利率 | 25 | | 货币 | 34 | | 信用 | 37 | | 新兴市场 | 42 | | 大 ...