The explosive growth in AI so far happened at a low point cyclically for semis, enabling a smooth ramp to 12x+ revenue growth in the last 10 quarters - but the fabs are starting to become full, which shifts value add to commodities and semicaps. The strength in AI semis is starting to enter a phase that strains overall semiconductor capacity. In the last ten quarters, NVIDIA has grown its data center revenue from $3.6bn to $49bn, a remarkable ascent which has required unprecedented supply chain dynamism fro ...

| M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Idea | | November 17, 2025 02:13 PM GMT | | | | Greater China Semiconductors Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ | | | | Tiffany Yeh | | | | Equity Analyst | | | 2026 CoWoS Expansion to | Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 | | | Charlie Chan Equity Analyst | | | Catch Up After TSMC's 3nm | Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 | | | Daniel Yen, CFA | | | | Equity Analyst | | | Capacity Increase | Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 27 ...

This is what you need to know about substrate, the secretive American startup that wants to reinvent chipmaking and bring it back to the U.S. substrate says it's built a chip making tool, a lithography machine that can displace asml's EUV lithography machine substrates to use as a particle accelerator as its light source. It's designed from the ground up about a 10th of the size of asml's EUV machines that can cost hundreds of millions of dollars in substrate size is X-ray lithography machine is already pri ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Asia Pacific region, emphasizing competitive reinvention and corporate strategies to adapt to emerging technologies and multipolar supply chains [1][4][8]. Core Themes and Insights - Asia is undergoing significant transformation in growth and corporate strategies, with a focus on capital market reforms to enhance competitiveness [1][4]. - The updated Asia Thematic Focus List includes 25 stocks identified as conviction winners, projecting a three-year EPS CAGR of 16.1% for 2025-27, with a forward P/E of 22.6x and a PEG of 1.4x [7][8]. Sub-Thematic Analysis - **Top Sub-Themes**: - China's AI Path ranks highest, followed by the Diabesity Ecosystem and AI & Healthcare [7][8]. - The thematic fund flow and stock mapping have been deepened, quantifying and ranking growth, valuations, and performance across sub-themes [7][8]. Financial Metrics - The Asia Thematic Focus List is trading at a forward P/E of 22.6x and a PEG of 1.4x, indicating a robust growth outlook [7][8]. - Specific sub-themes show promising growth metrics: - **Critical Minerals**: 19.9% sales growth CAGR and 50.0% EPS growth [28]. - **Semiconductor Localization**: 23.2% sales growth CAGR and 32.2% EPS growth [30]. - **AI & Tech Diffusion**: 11.0% sales growth CAGR and 18.8% EPS growth [30]. Thematic Fund Flows - APAC-domiciled thematic funds' AUM reached $191 billion as of September 2025, with significant growth in "Robotics + Automation" and "Artificial Intelligence + Big Data" funds [20][22]. - Digital Economy thematic funds recorded the highest fund flows in Q3 2025 [25]. Valuation Insights - The report highlights that while some sub-themes exhibit strong revenue and EPS growth prospects, they also face high valuations [28]. - The **Future of Energy** sub-themes show lower growth outlooks but offer more valuation support [31]. Additional Observations - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the competitive landscape and the need for companies to adapt to the evolving market dynamics in Asia [1][4]. - The analysis includes a ranking of sub-themes based on growth, valuation, and risk-reward profiles, providing a comprehensive view of investment opportunities [33][34]. Conclusion - The Asia Pacific region is positioned for significant growth driven by technological advancements and strategic reforms, with various sub-themes offering attractive investment opportunities despite varying valuation metrics [1][4][8].

Group 1: AI Investment Trends - The AI boom is expected to reach new heights by 2026, with AI investing remaining the dominant theme since its inception in 2023 [1] - AI hyperscalers are projected to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on AI computing infrastructure in 2026, surpassing records set in 2025 [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia has been a leading beneficiary of the AI boom, becoming the largest company by market cap and showing strong performance since 2023 [3] - AMD is enhancing its software in collaboration with OpenAI, while Broadcom is forming partnerships to develop custom AI chips that can outperform GPUs at lower costs [4] Group 3: Taiwan Semiconductor's Position - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is identified as a way to invest in the AI sector without betting on a single winner, as it supplies chips to major players like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom [5] - TSMC is the world's leading chip foundry, producing a significant portion of high-end chips for AI hyperscalers, and has achieved impressive manufacturing yields [7][9] Group 4: Technological Advancements - TSMC is launching a new 2nm chip node that offers 25% to 30% less power consumption compared to the previous 3nm generation, which is crucial for the energy-intensive AI buildout [8] - The new chips are entering production, with benefits expected to materialize in the coming quarters [9] Group 5: Financial Performance - TSMC's revenue grew by 41% year over year in Q3, outpacing growth rates of competitors like Broadcom and AMD, and only trailing Nvidia's 56% growth [10] - TSMC is also improving profitability despite significant expansion plans, including new facilities in the U.S. and globally [11] Group 6: Valuation Perspective - Despite TSMC's rapid growth and strong performance, it trades at a lower valuation compared to its competitors, suggesting it is undervalued [13] - Given its growth rate and lower price tag, TSMC is considered a strong buy to capitalize on the AI buildout, with expectations of becoming a top performer in 2026 [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: Technology, specifically focusing on AI and semiconductor industries - **Market Dynamics**: The technology sector is experiencing a range-bound market with significant attention on memory and optical segments due to political uncertainties affecting semiconductors [1][2] Core Insights - **Memory Pricing**: - TrendForce has raised the 4Q25 DRAM pricing growth expectation to 18-23% QoQ, slightly below the previous estimates of 20-25% [1] - Anticipation of another 20-25% QoQ increase in 1Q26 [1] - The DRAM upcycle is expected to extend into at least 1H26, with pricing dynamics stronger than previously expected [9] - NAND contract prices are projected to increase by 20-25% in both 4Q25 and 1Q26 [9] - **AI Demand**: - AI is expected to drive significant demand in the semiconductor sector, with the total addressable market (TAM) for AI accelerators projected to reach $308 billion and $440 billion in 2026 and 2027, respectively, representing a YoY growth of +54% and +33% [3] - Companies like Nvidia, Google, and AWS are leading the demand for AI accelerators [11] - **Optical Sector Recovery**: - The optical sector has regained strength, with companies like Lumentum, Coherent, and Tower providing strong guidance [1] - A bullish outlook on 1.6T demand into 2026/2027 is maintained [1] Company-Specific Highlights - **TSMC**: - Reported October revenue of NT$367.5 billion, up 11% MoM and 16.9% YoY, driven by AI [14] - Full-year sales guidance raised to a 30% increase in USD terms [14] - Expected price hikes for leading nodes in 1Q26 [14] - **SanDisk**: - Strong FY1Q26 results with revenue at $2.3 billion and margin at 29.9% [8] - FY2Q26 guidance indicates a margin increase to 41-43% [8] - **Teradyne**: - Initiated with a Buy rating, expected revenue of $4.07 billion and $5.43 billion in 2026 and 2027, respectively [10] - Positioned well for AI market share gain [10] - **AMD**: - Inline results with solid guidance, focusing on the MI450 product ramp [12] - Expected EPS contribution of ~27% to 2027 [12] Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: - Concerns regarding alternative technologies and potential slowdowns in AI demand and capital expenditures [6] - Risks associated with product delays and IT demand slowdown [6] Additional Insights - **Consumer Electronics**: - The PC market is expected to see a 4% YoY increase in shipments in 2025, driven by commercial demand, but consumer concerns over memory pricing may pose risks [18] - **Smartphone Market**: - MediaTek reported a slight decline in sales, with expectations for a sequential increase in 4Q [19] - **Non-AI Semiconductor Performance**: - Companies like UMC and Vanguard are experiencing mixed results, with UMC showing a 6.9% MoM increase but a slight YoY decline [20] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the technology sector, particularly in AI and semiconductors, along with company-specific performances and market risks.

Summary of Greater China Semiconductors Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Greater China Semiconductors - **Key Themes**: Global AI Supply-Chain Updates, Opportunities in Asia Semiconductors, Preference for Foundry/OSAT/Memory over Chip Design [1][2] Core Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: - **Overweight (OW)**: TSMC (Top Pick), Aspeed, Alchip, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, Himax, ASMPT, AllRing, SMIC - **Memory Stocks**: Winbond (Top Pick), Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix - **Non-AI Stocks**: OmniVision, Realtek, USI - **China WFE**: NAURA Tech, AMEC, ACMR - **Underweight (EW/UW)**: MediaTek, UMC, ASMedia, Vanguard, WIN Semi, Hua Hong [8] - **Market Dynamics**: - AI cannibalization is expected, with a gradual recovery in the second half of 2025. Historically, a decline in semiconductor inventory days has been a positive indicator for stock price appreciation [8] - DeepSeek technology is driving inferencing AI demand, but there are concerns about the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [8] - Rising costs in wafers, OSAT, and memory are anticipated to create margin pressures for chip designers into 2026 [8] - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: - **Tech Diffusion**: AI semiconductor demand is expected to accelerate due to generative AI, impacting various verticals beyond the semiconductor industry [8] - **Tech Deflation**: Anticipated "price elasticity" is expected to stimulate demand for technology products [8] Valuation Insights - **Valuation Metrics**: - TSMC (Ticker: 2330.TW) has a current price of 1,465.0 TWD with a target price of 1,688.0 TWD, indicating a 15% upside [9] - UMC (Ticker: 2303.TW) has a current price of 45.3 TWD with a target price of 48.0 TWD, indicating a 6% upside [9] - SMIC (Ticker: 0981.HK) has a current price of 72.1 HKD with a target price of 80.0 HKD, indicating an 11% upside [9] - Winbond (Ticker: 2344.TW) has a current price of 64.5 TWD with a target price of 72.0 TWD, indicating a 12% upside [9] Additional Insights - **Analyst Conflicts**: Morgan Stanley acknowledges potential conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies, which may affect research objectivity [2] - **Market Sentiment**: The overall industry view is considered attractive, indicating positive sentiment towards the semiconductor sector in Greater China [2] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the investment landscape, market dynamics, and valuation metrics within the Greater China semiconductor industry.

TSM's stock has seen a decline of approximately 3.82% over the past month, indicating a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors.The company experienced a further decline of about 4.52% in the last 10 days, making its stock more attractively priced for value investors.Analysts predict a 27.59% increase in TSM's stock price, supported by its strong fundamentals and strategic market position.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, listed as NYSE:TSM, is a leading player in the semicond ...

Performance Summary - Baron Technology Fund posted a positive return of 5.89% in Q3, underperforming the MSCI ACWI Information Technology Index which gained 12.76% [2][4] - Year-to-date, the Fund appreciated 18.25%, trailing the Benchmark's 22.83% but outperforming the QQQ and S&P 500 Index [2][4] Market Backdrop - U.S. equities experienced broad gains in Q3, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite Indexes reaching new record highs [5] - The market strength was driven by increased expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts due to labor market weakness and dovish Fed commentary [6] Fund Performance Analysis - The Fund's relative underperformance was attributed to stock selection, particularly in the IT sector and other sectors like Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary [7] - Notable contributors to performance included Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom, Lam Research, and Shopify, while underperformance was seen in PAR Technology and Atlassian [8] AI Market Developments - OpenAI announced significant partnerships for AI infrastructure, indicating a potential $3 trillion to $5 trillion in global AI infrastructure spending by 2030 [12][14] - The global economy is projected to reach $140 trillion by 2030, suggesting that AI infrastructure could represent about 2% of the global economy [14] Key Sector Insights - In the IT sector, the Fund's underweight in Microsoft contributed positively, while underweighting Apple detracted from performance [8][9] - Strong performance from Tesla in Consumer Discretionary was offset by disappointing results from Amazon and Duolingo [11] Top Contributors and Detractors - Top contributors to the Fund's performance included NVIDIA (2.23%), Broadcom (1.63%), and Tesla (1.41%) [23][25][27] - Detractors included PAR Technology (-0.92%), The Trade Desk (-0.91%), and Spotify (-0.56%) [29][30][32] Portfolio Structure - The Fund had investments in 46 unique companies, with the top 10 positions accounting for 59.1% of net assets [36][37] - The largest market cap holding was NVIDIA at $4.5 trillion, while the smallest was $880 million [35][37] Recent Activity - The Fund initiated positions in Lumentum Holdings and increased holdings in Duolingo and Arista Networks, focusing on companies positioned for growth in AI infrastructure [41][42][43] - Exited positions included Reddit and CyberArk Software due to valuation concerns [44]

Market Performance & Trends - Nasdaq 上涨超过 2%，标普上涨 1.5%，整体市场风险偏好较高 [2] - 半导体板块表现强势，大部分股票上涨 [2] - 黄金上涨约 2.8%，与股市和加密货币市场的风险偏好不一致 [4] - 信息技术板块上涨约 2.7%，领涨各行业板块 [8] - Palantir 股票经历投资者重新评估，此前 Michael Barry 的 Scion Asset Management 披露持有价值约 9.12 亿美元的看跌期权 [9] Company Specific News - Micron Technology 股价上涨约 6.5%，成为标普和纳斯达克 100 指数中的领涨股 [11] - TSMC 的 ADR 上涨约 3%，尽管其增长率降至 18 个月以来的最低水平 [12] - e.l.f Beauty 宣布在墨西哥 Ulta Beauty 正式推出品牌后，股价上涨超过 8% [13] - C3 股价一度上涨 12%，因有消息称该公司正在探索潜在出售或其他选择，最终收盘上涨约 3.6% [13] - Centene 股价下跌 8.8%，原因是立法者即将结束政府停摆，但未能延长《平价医疗法案》 [14] - Oscar Health 股价下跌 17.5% [16] - American Airlines 股价下跌 2.5%，该公司表示周末运营因政府停摆而面临挑战，取消了 1400 架次航班，延误超过 57000 分钟，影响了 25 万名客户 [17][19] - Met Sarah 股价下跌近 15%，此前 Novo Nordisk 拒绝进一步提高对该公司的收购要约 [20] Paramount Skydance - 公司预计总效率将提高 30 亿美元以上 [22] - 计划在 2026 年第一季度初在美国实施价格上涨 [23] - 计划额外裁员 1600 人 [24] - 预计 2026 年收入约为 300 亿美元 [30] The RealReal - 第三季度调整后每股亏损为 0.04 美元，低于预期的 0.056 美元 [24] - 第四季度营收预计为 1.88 亿至 1.91 亿美元，高于预期的 1.795 亿美元 [25]