Summary of the Conference Call on China Steel and Iron Ore Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Steel and Iron Ore** industry, providing insights into consumption trends, inventory levels, and production rates. Key Points Steel Consumption Trends - Apparent consumption of **rebar** continued to decline, while consumption of **flat products** remained relatively high [1] - Downstream consumption for rebar fell further by **10% week-over-week (WoW)**, attributed to holidays and the upcoming **Chinese New Year** [2] Inventory Levels - **Steel inventory** at traders increased by **75,000 tons (kt)**, or **1.0% WoW**, while inventory for long products rose by **2.9% WoW**. Conversely, inventory for flat products decreased by **0.4% WoW** [2] - **Steel inventory** at mills was reported at **3,491 kt**, down **0.3% WoW** [2] - **Iron ore inventory** at small and medium-sized mills increased by **9.9 kt**, or **4.7%**, from the previous week [3] - Inventory at ports decreased by **0.6% WoW**, totaling **142.9 million tons (mt)** [3] Production Rates - The **utilization rate** of 247 mills dropped by **0.58 percentage points (ppts) WoW**, reaching **85.6%** [4] - Average daily output for **long products** decreased by **3.5% WoW**, totaling **2.89 million tons (mnt)**, while output for **flat products** dropped by **0.6% WoW**, totaling **5.41 mnt** [4] - The **iron ore operating rate** at 126 sample mines was **60.9%**, down **3.2 ppts** compared to two weeks prior, with an average daily output of **383.9 kt**, down **5.0%** [3] Market Dynamics - The **steel demand** outlook remains cautious, with the industry facing challenges due to seasonal factors and inventory adjustments [6] - The **CISA (China Iron and Steel Association)** reported that member mills' production was **1.98 million tons per day** for mid-December, down **2.3%** from the preceding 10 days but up **2.5% year-over-year (YoY)** [4] Additional Insights - The **EAF (Electric Arc Furnace)** capacity utilization rate decreased by **0.34 ppts WoW**, reaching **52.45%** as of December 27 [4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains **attractive**, indicating potential for recovery in the medium to long term [6] Conclusion - The China Steel and Iron Ore industry is currently experiencing a decline in rebar consumption and mixed inventory trends, with production rates also showing a downward trajectory. Seasonal factors and market dynamics are influencing these trends, but the long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Offshore oilfield services (OFS) * **Company**: COSL (China Oilfield Services Limited) * **Analyst**: UBS * **Date**: 2 January 2025 Key Points Industry Trends 1. **Offshore OFS Utilization and Day Rates**: The offshore OFS industry has been experiencing an upcycle since 2021, driven by rising oil prices and increased capex by global oil companies. Rig utilisation rates have been high, with average day rates for jack-ups, semi-subs, and drill ships increasing annually since 2022. * [2] 2. **Global Offshore Rig Utilization**: The average utilisation rate for offshore rigs in 2024 was 79%, with jack-up utilisation experiencing a temporary decline in Q324 due to service suspensions in the Middle East, followed by a recovery in Q424. * [2] 3. **Offshore Rig Day Rates**: Day rates for offshore rigs have remained on an upward trajectory in 2024, with rates for jack-ups, semi-subs, and drill ships increasing by 12%, 8%, and 16% respectively from the end of 2023. * [2] 4. **Global Offshore OFS Demand**: Global offshore OFS demand is expected to remain solid, with day rates for jack-ups, semi-subs, and drill ships projected to increase by 6%, 9%, and 9% respectively from 2026 to 2028. * [3] 5. **Regional Variations**: The Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and Australia have seen the fastest growth in average day rates for jack-ups in 2024. Norway has maintained high day rates for semi-subs, with the average leading edge day rate increasing by 23% YoY. * [4] 6. **Rig Suspensions in the Middle East**: Some rigs in the Middle East were suspended from service in 2024 due to service suspensions. However, new contracts have been secured for a quarter of the suspended rigs, and demand is expected to recover in 2026. * [4] 7. **Supply Gap**: UBS expects a supply gap to emerge in 2030, requiring an investment of US$250-400bn/year to fill the gap, accounting for the natural decline at mature fields and the need for new projects. * [19] COSL Analysis 1. **COSL Drilling Business**: UBS has updated its analysis of COSL's drilling business and adjusted its 2024/2025/2026 earnings estimates. The company's drilling segment is expected to experience high growth in 2025, driven by new contracts for suspended rigs and higher day rates for some of its semi-subs. * [5] 2. **COSL Earnings Estimates**: UBS has adjusted its DCF-based price target for COSL from HK$10.80 to HK$10.60, implying a 10x 2025E PE. The company's 2025 net profit growth forecast is 40%. * [5] 3. **COSL Valuation**: COSL's 2025E PE of 6.6x is below the global OFS peer average of 11.9x, and its 2025E P/BV of 0.6x is below the global OFS peer average of 1.6x. * [5] 4. **COSL Rig Contracts**: UBS has provided a detailed breakdown of COSL's rigs subject to contract changes in 2025, including new contracts for suspended rigs and higher day rates for some of its semi-subs. * [40] 5. **COSL Financials**: UBS has provided a financial overview of COSL, including revenue, EBITDA, net profit, capex, EPS, DPS, ROE, and gearing ratio. * [42] Risks 1. **Oil Prices**: COSL's share price tends to track oil prices, which could impact sentiment on the stock. 2. **Deep-water Drilling**: The market may have higher earnings expectations for COSL from deep-water drilling offshore China, which faces higher risks than shallow-water drilling. 3. **Exchange Rates**: If the US dollar appreciates against the renminbi, there could be upside risk to COSL's earnings. 4. **Large Portion of Revenue from CNOOC**: While this represents reliable revenue, there is a risk that COSL may not raise rates in line with overseas peers. * [48]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 06:02 AM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Secondary Home Prices Weakened In December December secondary home prices in major cities witnessed m-m decline after a two-month up-trend amid diminishing policy impact. In combination with slightly increased listings and seasonality, there could be downside pressure on home sales in 1Q25. December transaction home prices weakened as expected, with -1.1% m-m (-9.8% y-y) in the ~50 sample cities we track (vs. +0.5% in No ...

Summary of Indian Banks Research Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Indian banking sector, particularly the outlook for 2025, which is anticipated to be a Year of Easing for Indian Banks [2][20]. Key Themes and Insights 1. **Loan and Deposit Growth**: - Loan growth is expected to slow to 11-13%, leading to some cuts in EPS forecasts [2][3]. - Deposit growth has moderated to 11%, aligning with credit growth [3][30]. - The gap between loan growth (16%) and deposit growth (13%) has narrowed, addressing RBI concerns [2][4]. 2. **Regulatory Environment**: - RBI may implement a 50bps cut in policy rates in the first half of 2025, which could support growth and investments [4][38]. - The easing of liquidity stance and CRR by 50bps is expected to have a short-term drag on NIMs [4][42]. 3. **Asset Quality**: - Asset quality pressure is anticipated to ease in FY26, particularly for larger banks focusing on upper-tier clients [5][30]. - Unsecured retail loans are expected to see reduced pressure as provisions are taken upfront and disbursals slow down [5][44]. 4. **Operational Efficiency**: - Banks are controlling operational expenses by moderating branch and staff expansion, which is expected to continue into FY26 [6][30]. 5. **Capital Needs**: - With healthy ROEs and slower growth, banks have limited capital needs, although some PSU banks may require additional capital [7][30]. 6. **Valuation and Investment Recommendations**: - Valuations are considered attractive, with a narrowing earnings growth gap between banks and the market [8][20]. - Preferred banks include ICICI, Axis, HDFC Bank, and SBI, with Kotak upgraded to Buy and BOB downgraded to Hold due to slower deposit growth [8][9]. Important Metrics - **EPS Forecast Changes**: - Axis Bank: Target price INR 1,430 (previously INR 1,500) [9]. - ICICI Bank: Target price INR 1,600 (previously INR 1,550) [9]. - HDFC Bank: Target price INR 2,120 (previously INR 2,020) [9]. - SBI: Target price INR 970 (previously INR 1,030) [9]. Additional Insights - **Economic Indicators**: - Real GDP growth slowed to 5% in Q2 FY25 compared to 8% in FY24, while inflation remains sticky around 5% [2][30]. - The banking sector is expected to see a convergence in loan and deposit growth, with a pick-up anticipated in FY26/27 [30][31]. - **Market Performance**: - Nifty-Banks index increased by 6% in 2024, slightly underperforming the Nifty index, which rose by 9% [8][20]. - **Sectoral Performance**: - The MFI segment continues to face stress, which may impact mid-sized banks' earnings [5][44]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the research call regarding the Indian banking sector, highlighting the anticipated trends, regulatory changes, and investment recommendations for 2025.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 USA | Digital Infrastructure 2025 Digital Infrastructure Outlook — Data Center Mania; Moving to Hold on CCI We are in the very early innings of data center demand driven by AI. We expect power limitations, supply chain bottlenecks on new construction, and continued increases in market rents. For Towers, domestic carrier capex investment in 5G has disappointed. Our top picks into '25 are DLR for Data Centers and AMT for Towers. We are downgrading CCI to a Hold, as a sale of the F ...

Industry and Company Overview **Industry**: China Consumer Staples, specifically focusing on the snack industry. **Key Themes**: 1. **Channel Shift**: The industry is witnessing a shift towards online and discount channels, with traditional offline channels losing market share. 2. **Pricing Pressure**: Both channels and consumers are adopting value-for-money strategies, leading to pricing cuts. 3. **Traditional Distributors Under Pressure**: Traditional offline distributors are facing challenges, with sales and profit growth slowing down. Company Analysis **Yankershop Food (002847.SZ)**: * **Rating**: Buy * **Key Points**: * Well-positioned to capture growth in snack discounters and major SKUs. * Strong online growth and partnerships with top-tier discounters. * Healthy investment cycle and potential positive catalysts from stronger CNY sales and ongoing discounter openings. * Valuation appears attractive compared to peers. **Three Squirrels (300783.SZ)**: * **Rating**: Neutral * **Key Points**: * Focus on new initiatives aligning with the value-for-money industry trend. * Sales CAGR expected to reach 29% over 2024-26E. * Building up in-house and margin-accretive offline business. * Valuation appears fair at the current price levels. **Chacha Food Co. (002557.SZ)**: * **Rating**: Sell * **Key Points**: * Core business (sunflower seeds) facing sales decline. * Nuts business facing increased competition and margin dilution risks. * Structural margin dilution if nuts continue to lead the company's growth. **Want Want China (0151.HK)**: * **Rating**: Sell * **Key Points**: * Product mix skewed to less healthy flavored milk. * Relatively conservative approach to marketing and distribution leading to market share losses and earnings deterioration. * Overseas market demand outlook relatively strong, but visibility of sales contribution of new product launches and channel expansion remains low. Additional Observations * **Online Exposure**: Snack companies' online exposure is still low compared to other consumer sectors, but has been on a rising trend. * **Discounters**: Fast store openings and consolidation in the discount channel. * **Consumer Trends**: Consumers are increasingly pursuing new products and new tastes, with taste and value-for-money being the most important factors for Gen Z consumers. * **Distributors**: Traditional offline distributors are under pressure, with sales per distributor declining in 1H24. Conclusion The snack industry in China is undergoing significant changes, with a shift towards online and discount channels, pricing pressure, and challenges for traditional distributors. Companies like Yankershop and Three Squirrels are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, while companies like Chacha Food and Want Want face challenges and risks.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 02:28 AM GMT China Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia Pacific M Update All's well that ends well; all eyes are on air pocket in demand post subsidies China's major EV brands posted record Dec sales. BYD and XPeng beat market expectations on faster ramp-up of new models; while Li Auto and ZEEKR sales were slightly shy of their previous guidance. NIO reclaimed sales momentum, stretching to meet 4Q sales guidance. December hit a good balance between order intake and sel ...

Key Points Industry/Company Involved * No specific industry or company mentioned in the provided content. Core Views and Arguments * **Economic Calendar**: The document provides a detailed economic calendar for the United States in 2025, outlining the release dates of major economic indicators and FOMC meetings. This includes data such as employment reports, manufacturing indices, trade balances, consumer sentiment, and more. * **Morgan Stanley Estimates**: The calendar includes estimates from Morgan Stanley based on past patterns and historical data. This includes the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations and Senior Loan Officer Survey. * **Accuracy and Completeness**: The document explicitly states that the information provided is based on generally available public sources and is believed to be reliable. However, it is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. Other Important Content * **Contact Information**: The document provides contact information for Morgan Stanley, including address and phone number. * **Disclaimer**: The document includes a disclaimer stating that it is not an offer to buy or sell any security or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. It also states that the document is not a recommendation to participate in any particular transaction or trading strategy. * **Copyright Information**: The document includes copyright information for 2025, indicating that it is copyrighted material.

Industry and Company Overview **Industry**: China Semiconductors **Coverage**: Semicap, Analog, Foundry, Computing **Timeframe**: 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook Key Points 1. 2024 Review * **Top Picks**: NAURA, AMEC, Hygon, SMIC, Silergy * **Outperformers**: NAURA (63% growth), AMEC (30% growth), Hygon (106% growth), SMIC (68%/80% growth), Silergy (Market-Perform upgraded in December) * **Misjudged**: Cambricon & Hua Hong rating changes * **Lessons Learned**: Consider both fundamentals and sentiment when making rating changes 2. 2025 Outlook * **Semicap**: * Geopolitical tension to boost domestic substitution * Demand strong, entity list impact priced in * Top picks: AMEC, NAURA, Piotech * **Analog**: * Silergy as a quality long-term investment target * Growth driven by China Auto * Short-term pressure due to weak China demand * **Foundry**: * Upcycle and share gain to boost confidence * Profitability pressure remains * SMIC preferred over Hua Hong * **Computing**: * Export control creates market for local chip vendors * China shifting to inferencing and smaller models * Hygon preferred over Cambricon 3. China WFE Industry * **Demand**: Expected to decline -19% YoY in 2025 due to strong pull forward in 2024 * **Domestic Share**: Expected to reach 28% in 2026 * **Self-sufficiency**: Expected to reach 36% by 2026 * **Local fabs**: Pushing for supply chain resiliency through co-development with local WFE suppliers 4. Key Companies * **NAURA**: * Largest domestic WFE platform * Positive top line projection of YoY +30% in 2025 * GPM expected to improve with higher share from WFE and better mix with advanced node equipment * **AMEC**: * Leader in dry etch, expanding into deposition * Key advanced foundry/memory progress to be major driver of 2025 onwards * Overall localization trend in advanced logic/memory inevitable * **Piotech**: * Rising star in CVD & hybrid bonding * Significant top line upside in 2025/26 * Shipped products up +160% YoY in 3Q24 * **Silergy**: * China's largest analog chip supplier * Leader in Power Analog segment * Expected to grow 26%+ CAGR for next few years * **SMIC**: * Aggressive investments on capacity expansion * Potential on Advanced Node Logic * EPS expected to rebound in 2025 * **Hua Hong**: * Matured node foundry * Potential re-rating as China's matured node foundry enters demand upcycle * ASP expected to increase in next few quarters 5. Risks * Global overcapacity in matured logic * ASP pressure on matured node foundries * Weak demand in certain segments * Technological challenges Conclusion The China semiconductor industry is expected to continue growing in 2025, driven by domestic substitution, technological advancements, and increased demand for computing and analog chips. However, there are also risks to consider, such as global overcapacity and technological challenges.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 1 January 2025 | 9:50PM EST Americas Technology: Security 2025 Repositioning: NET to Buy, CHKP to Neutral Security stock performance in 2024 can almost entirely be explained by one factor: to what extent the market believed each company is a platform vs. a point product. The best mid-to-large cap performers in our coverage were FTNT (+63%), CRWD (+37%) and NET (+31%); the worst performers were OKTA (-12%), ZS (-17%) and S (-18%). PANW (+25%), and CHKP (+23%) each performed more ...