Economic Growth Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience accelerated growth in 2026, with a forecasted real GDP growth rate of 2.6%, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of 2% [3][6] - The growth in 2025 was impacted by higher-than-expected tariffs, which increased the average effective tariff rate by 11 percentage points, contributing to a 0.6 percentage point reduction in GDP in the latter half of 2025 [2][6] Factors Driving Growth - Three main factors are anticipated to drive faster economic growth in 2026: reduced tariff drag, tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and more favorable financial conditions due to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7] - Consumers are projected to receive an additional $100 billion in tax refunds in the first half of 2026, equating to approximately 0.4% of annual disposable income [7] Labor Market Insights - Despite the optimistic growth outlook, the labor market is not expected to see significant improvement, with the unemployment rate projected to stabilize around 4.5% in 2026 [8][10] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in June to 4.6% in November, indicating a cooling labor market amid economic uncertainties [9] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to decline, with core PCE inflation projected to fall to just above 2% by the end of 2026, primarily due to diminishing tariff pass-through effects [12][13] - The current core PCE inflation rate is noted at 2.8%, largely influenced by tariff pass-through, which is expected to rise slightly from 0.5 percentage points to 0.8 percentage points by mid-2026 [12][13]

Contribution Limits Changes - The IRS announced that contribution limits for 401(k) and 403(b) plans, as well as governmental 457 plans and the federal Thrift Savings Plan, will increase to $24,500 in 2026, up from $23,500 in 2025 [1] - The IRA contribution limit will rise to $7,500 in 2026 from $7,000 in 2025 [1] Catch-Up Contributions - Individuals aged 50 and older can contribute an additional $1,100 to their IRA starting in 2026, an increase from $1,000 in 2025, due to the SECURE 2.0 Act's cost-of-living adjustment [2] - For workers aged 50 and up participating in 401(k), 403(b), government 457 plans, and the federal Thrift Savings Plan, the catch-up contribution limit will increase to $8,000 in 2026 from $7,500 in 2025, raising their total contribution limit to $32,500 [5] - Workers aged 60 through 63 will have a higher catch-up contribution limit of $11,250, which remains unchanged in 2026 [6] Phase-Out Ranges for IRA Deductions - The phase-out range for single taxpayers covered by a workplace retirement plan will increase to between $81,000 and $91,000 in 2026, up from $79,000 to $89,000 in 2025 [9] - For married couples filing jointly, the phase-out range will increase to between $129,000 and $149,000 if the spouse making the IRA contribution is covered by a workplace retirement plan [12] Roth IRA Phase-Out Ranges - The phase-out range for individuals contributing to a Roth IRA will rise in 2026 to between $153,000 and $168,000 for singles and heads of household, an increase of $3,000 [13] - For married filers, the phase-out range will increase to between $242,000 and $252,000 in 2026, an increase of $6,000 [13] Expert Commentary - A national director of strategic wealth and business advisory noted that the new 2026 retirement plan limits provide more room for savings, which is beneficial as retirement becomes longer and more expensive [15]

Core Insights - Consumers are advised to stock up on essentials, especially home goods, due to expected "noticeable" price increases in early 2026 according to Wells Fargo [1] - Retailers have been holding or modestly increasing prices during the holiday season while offering targeted promotions and deeper discounts on select items [1] Inventory and Pricing Trends - In early 2025, many retailers strategically increased inventory purchases to avoid additional tariffs [2] - From May to September, retailers raised their inventory levels by 14%, but inventory in transit from overseas suppliers is projected to rise by 62% in early 2026 [5] - Home goods retailers, heavily reliant on imports, are implementing strategic price increases, leading to faster price hikes compared to apparel [8] Consumer Behavior and Recommendations - Major furniture purchases should be made now to avoid significant price increases expected in early 2026, as warned by Wells Fargo [10] - Apparel may also see price increases, but its lower base price may mitigate the impact compared to big-ticket items [9]

Core Insights - Starbucks is leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance its business operations while emphasizing that technology serves as a support tool rather than a replacement for human workers [1][4] - The company has invested over $600 million to reintegrate more employees, referred to as "partners," into its stores to maintain the human connection that customers value [2][4] - Starbucks is committed to using technology to alleviate employee workload and improve productivity, recognizing its necessity for competitiveness in the current market [4] Investment and Technology Initiatives - The introduction of Green Dot Assist, a virtual assistant for baristas, aims to streamline workflow management through an iPad system, providing quick reminders for beverage ingredients [5] - A new inventory management tool has been implemented, utilizing an iPad to automatically scan stock, thus eliminating the need for manual counting by employees [7] - The CEO anticipates further breakthroughs in AI applications within the business, indicating a continuous exploration and learning process regarding technology integration [8][10]

Industry Overview - The exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry reached a record $1.25 trillion in assets by November, marking the fastest growth in history [1] - Full-year ETF inflows are projected to reach $1.4 trillion, revised up from an earlier estimate of $1.3 trillion, driven by strong bond performance [5] Asset Performance - Across various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, there has been a positive return environment, with assets outperforming cash [2] - Gold prices have surged over 70% this year, while silver has increased by more than 140%, both reaching record highs [15] Bond and Gold ETFs - Bond ETFs attracted $42 billion in inflows last month and are on track to achieve a record $400 billion in inflows for the year [7] - The SPDR Gold Trust ETF, the largest gold-backed ETF, has seen record inflows and has gained over 68% [8] Market Dynamics - The popularity of fixed income ETFs continues to grow, with their use cases expanding beyond basic strategies to include more active management [6] - Factors contributing to the bullish outlook for gold include persistent inflation, global instability, and continued central bank purchases [10][18]

Core Viewpoint - Ford Motor Company has recorded an unprecedented number of recalls in 2025, surpassing previous industry records and highlighting ongoing quality issues across various vehicle models [1][8]. Recall Statistics - In 2025, Ford logged 152 recalls, significantly higher than Honda's 53, Forest River's 32, General Motors' 27, and International Motors' 26 [2]. - By October 2025, Ford had already issued more than 103 safety recalls, exceeding the previous annual record of 77 recalls set by General Motors in 2014 [8][9]. Specific Recalls - A recent recall involved a software error in certain 2020 Escape Hybrid and 2022 to 2024 Maverick Hybrid vehicles, affecting 87 units [2]. - Additional recalls included an instrument panel cover issue in approximately 6,897 2025–26 Maverick pickups and a headlight failure risk in over 45,000 2025 to 2026 Mustang Mach-E vehicles [3]. - In October, Ford recalled over 1.4 million vehicles due to rearview camera issues in various models manufactured from 2015 to 2020, which could display distorted or blank images when in reverse [7][11]. Company Response and Strategy - Ford emphasized its commitment to vehicle quality and customer safety, stating that the number of recalls reflects its strategy to quickly identify and resolve hardware and software issues [13][15]. - The company has more than doubled its team of safety and technical experts over the past two years to enhance its recall management and safety protocols [16].

Core Viewpoint - A recall of holiday bark products sold at Aldi has been expanded due to concerns over undeclared allergens, specifically pecans and wheat, which could pose serious health risks to consumers with allergies [1][4]. Group 1: Recall Details - Silvestri Sweets has voluntarily recalled its Choceur-branded Cookie Butter Holiday Bark and Pecan, Cranberry & Cinnamon Holiday Bark due to potential undeclared allergens [1]. - The recall was initially issued last month and expanded this week after it was found that the Pecan, Cranberry & Cinnamon Holiday Bark was packaged in Cookie Butter Holiday Bark bags, leading to undeclared pecans [4][6]. - Consumers are advised to discard the recalled products, which are sold in 5-ounce stand-up pouch bags [9]. Group 2: Health Risks - The FDA has warned that individuals with allergies to pecans and wheat face the risk of serious or life-threatening allergic reactions if they consume the affected products [2]. - To date, no illnesses have been reported in connection with the recall [4]. Group 3: Product Information - The recalled Cookie Butter Holiday Bark includes lot numbers 29225, 28525, or 29925 with a Best By date of May 2026, and lot number 30625 with a Best By date of June 2026 [6]. - The affected Pecan, Cranberry & Cinnamon Holiday Bark includes lot numbers 29225, 28525, or 29925 with a Best By date in August 2026, and lot number 30625 with a Best By date in September 2026 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Jack in the Box is planning to close dozens of underperforming restaurants to cut costs and improve revenue, with a target of shutting down 150-200 locations by 2026, including 80-120 by the end of this year [1][4]. Group 1: Restaurant Closures - The company has already closed 12 locations in May, followed by 13 closures in August, and an additional 47 closures reported in November, bringing the total to 72 closures [1][4]. - The closures are part of a block closure program aimed at enhancing financial performance due to declining customer traffic and rising beef prices [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Jack in the Box reported a net loss of $80.7 million for the fiscal year ending in September, with a 7.4% decline in sales during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 compared to the same quarter in 2024 [5]. - This marks the second consecutive quarter with a sales dip exceeding 7% [5]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The CEO emphasized a simplified and asset-light business model to maximize shareholder returns, focusing on three main areas: improving the balance sheet, closing underperforming restaurants, and maintaining growth-oriented capital investments [7][8]. - The company aims for consistent net unit growth and competitive unit economics through these strategic actions [8]. Group 4: Recent Developments - Jack in the Box has completed the sale of Del Taco to Yadav Enterprises for approximately $119 million as part of its turnaround strategy [10]. - The company operates around 2,200 restaurants in the U.S., primarily located in California, Texas, and Arizona [10].

Mortgage Rates - The average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.18% from 6.21% last week, down from 6.85% a year ago [1] - The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.5% from 5.47% last week [7] Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a third-quarter GDP growth of 4.3%, surpassing economists' expectations of 3.3% [5] - The consumer price index rose 0.2% in November from the prior month and increased 2.7% year-over-year, both figures lower than economists' projections [6] Labor Market - Employers added 64,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [7] Market Outlook - Higher inventory levels compared to last year may provide buyers with a better rate environment entering the new year [9] - If mortgage rates stabilize or decrease slightly, buyers could experience increased purchasing power in 2026, following two slow housing years [10]

Core Insights - Inflation has been lower in conservative-led states compared to liberal-led states, averaging 2.5% versus 3% respectively [1] - The analysis indicates significant differences in energy and transportation costs contributing to the inflation gap [1][4] Inflation Analysis - The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) utilized regional inflation data adjusted for state populations due to the absence of official state-level Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] - Metro areas in conservative states experienced a year-over-year inflation rate of 1.9%, while those in liberal states saw a rate of 3% [3] Energy and Transportation Costs - Energy inflation is a major factor driving higher overall inflation in liberal-run cities, with cities like Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York experiencing rapid increases in energy prices compared to conservative states [3] - Energy and transportation costs are significant contributors to the inflation gap, affecting household expenses quickly even with slight price increases [4] Housing Affordability - Housing inflation remains high nationwide, with prices rising faster in liberal-led states than in conservative-led states [5] - The Trump administration is actively working on proposals to address housing affordability, with a comprehensive plan expected to be announced early in the new year [8][6] Voter Concerns - The findings from the CEA come at a time when inflation is a primary concern for voters, influencing discussions on energy, housing, and transportation policies that impact the cost of living [9]