Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent ADP employment report indicating a significant drop in private sector job growth, raising concerns about the U.S. employment situation, while contrasting it with strong job vacancy data from JOLTs, leading to a disconnect in the labor market dynamics [1][2][3]. Employment Data Analysis - The ADP report revealed that only 37,000 jobs were added in May, far below the expected 130,000, marking the lowest increase since March 2023 [1]. - In contrast, JOLTs data showed 7.391 million job openings, exceeding the forecast of 7.1 million, indicating a paradox where many job postings exist but few new hires are made [2]. Market Reaction - Despite the concerning employment data, the market experienced a slight increase, with the index rising by 7.9 points, and a near balance in the number of advancing and declining stocks [4]. - However, a closer look at sector performance revealed a decline in previously strong sectors such as jewelry, beauty care, food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and banking, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [5]. Sector Focus - The article emphasizes a shift in investment focus towards the technology sector, suggesting that only technology stocks can generate real profits in the current market environment [7]. - The commentary on the technology sector is reinforced by a report on DeepSeek's R2 model, which is seen as a significant advancement in AI technology [8]. DeepSeek R2 Model Insights - The R2 model boasts 1.2 trillion parameters, nearly double that of its predecessor R1, and incorporates a mixed expert model (MoE) for enhanced efficiency [10][11]. - The cost of using R2 is significantly lower, with output costs at $0.27 per million tokens and input costs at $0.07, making advanced AI technology more accessible to businesses [12]. - The R2 model also marks a shift away from reliance on NVIDIA hardware, utilizing Huawei's Ascend 910B chips instead, indicating progress in domestic AI chip development [13][14]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article reflects on the pressure faced by analysts amid market volatility, emphasizing the importance of patience and a long-term investment strategy in the tech sector [19]. - The closing remarks suggest that while the market may experience fluctuations, there is potential for recovery and profitability in the technology sector, encouraging investors to remain committed [19].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent increase in job vacancies in the US, with available positions rising to 7.39 million, exceeding market expectations of 7.1 million, indicating a stronger employment situation than anticipated [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a 72.4% probability of a rate cut in September, while the likelihood of cuts in June and July remains low at 2.2% and 22.4% respectively [1] - The A-share market is currently in a bullish phase, with a target of 3600 points, and the key index level to watch is 3417, which, if broken, could accelerate the market's upward movement [1][2] Group 2 - Foreign investment sentiment towards the Chinese stock market is improving, with analysts raising EPS expectations for the Hang Seng Index following a trade consensus between China and the US [2][5] - The allocation of foreign capital in Chinese stocks remains low at approximately 4.6%, down from 6.1% in October of the previous year, indicating potential for growth as foreign investors become more optimistic [5] - Retail investor enthusiasm has decreased significantly, with the sentiment index dropping from 2.0 in September last year to 0.3, contributing to weaker performance in thematic stocks [7] Group 3 - The consumer sector is experiencing a strong performance, with segments such as gold jewelry, beauty care, and food and beverage leading the gains, driven by a shift in consumer spending patterns due to weakened exports [12] - The consumption structure in China is undergoing an upgrade, with a focus on quality and self-satisfying consumption, as evidenced by the rise of brands that emphasize product quality and consumer experience [12][13] - The "self-pleasing" consumption trend is gaining traction, with 46.28% of young consumers prioritizing self-pleasure in their spending, and the market for such consumption reaching 4.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 32% of total household consumption [13][15]

节前最后两次直播，连续给同学们的四字箴言就是"持股过节"，今天我们果然还是应验了。 指数难得的普涨， 3390 只个股飘红，平均股价上涨 0.76% ，美中不足的是量能还是保持 在 1.14 亿，基本板块的运行按照昨天和同学们分享的逻辑去走。 对于市场，对于上证指数处在面向3600的主涨段的技术判断不变，就不赘述了。 我们聚焦一下市场上最重要的几个事儿。 一方面是美国法院判定川普的关税政策不合法 。这个事之前的文章解读的比较透彻，在这就 不多说了。 光靠法院，是拦不住川普的，但是这个事儿透露的背后的意义很大。 6 月第一个交易日，市场补发了端午节红包。 简单来说，反对川普的力量第一次出现了集结。 开始的时候，川普头上顶着暗杀不死的"天选之子"光环，选举大胜，民主党想搞事，都很 难。直到现在，关税政策动摇到各行各业的民生问题，这就给反对川普的力量集结的机会。 这次法院的判决，就是第一次集结号。 另一方面，川普自己也有点坐不住了 。从外媒的消息来看，老美已经要求各国在 6 月 4 日 之前提出最佳贸易方案。距离对等关税 90 天暂停期只有五周了，到现在为止只和英国签了一 个框架协议，这显然是川普不能接受的。 最关 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting its resilience despite global market pressures, particularly from U.S. tariff announcements [1][3] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong market has decreased significantly, with a drop from 270 billion to under 150 billion, indicating a lack of liquidity [2][3] - The article suggests that the Chinese assets are not experiencing significant declines, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [3] Group 2 - The article outlines the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly Ukraine's strategic retreat in negotiations, which may influence geopolitical dynamics [4][9] - A significant drone attack by Ukraine on Russian military targets is noted, marking a new phase in warfare tactics [5][7] - The article anticipates that developments in drone technology and counter-drone measures may impact A-share market themes [8] Group 3 - The article reports on Trump's announcement to increase U.S. steel import tariffs from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, as part of his strategy to bolster domestic steel production [9][14] - It highlights that the majority of steel exports to the U.S. come from Canada, Brazil, and the EU, with only a small fraction from China [13] - The article discusses the political motivations behind Trump's tariff actions, linking them to his declining approval ratings and the upcoming midterm elections [14][20] Group 4 - The article mentions a trading strategy known as TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), which suggests that investors can capitalize on market dips caused by Trump's tariff threats [15][16] - It emphasizes that similar strategies can be applied in the A-share market, where rebounds often follow initial declines due to external pressures [20] Group 5 - The article provides an overview of market conditions in May, indicating increased trading difficulty compared to April, with a focus on technology stocks as a promising sector [21][25] - It notes that technology stocks have reached a favorable valuation range after adjustments, while other sectors like dividends and new consumption have become overcrowded [26][30] - The article outlines upcoming events in June that could catalyze movements in the technology sector, including major product launches and conferences [29][30]

先说一件大事，川普继续豁免301关税。 当地时间 5 月 31 日，美国贸易代表办公室宣布，延长对中国在技术转让、知识产权和创新方面的行为、政策与做法所进行的 301 条款调查中部分产品的关税 豁免。 本来这些豁免原定于 2025 年 5 月 31 日到期，现已延长至 2025 年 8 月 31 日。 那么，什么是301关税呢？ 这要从2018年说起，当时川普根据《1974年贸易法》第301条款，对中国加征不合理的高额关税。 后来，2024年5月，拜登升级了301关税，提高了电动汽车、半导体等品类的税率。 但奇怪的是，美国一边在提高关税，一边却在豁免。 2018年，川普挥舞301条款对中国340亿美元商品加税25%，最终豁免549项； 2022年3月，拜登宣布延长352项中国商品的关税豁免至2023年9月； 2025年，川普继续豁免352项关键技术产品。这种矛盾的根源就在于，美国想要打压中国，但本质上却离不开中国。美国明确豁免的智能手机、芯 片、半导体设备等352项商品，基本上属于中国绝对优势领域。 之所以做这个动作，其根本目的，还是为了高层打电话 稀土的事儿，也是让美国人开始上火了，着急和我们谈： 这个电话 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Circuit Court has approved Trump's request to pause the implementation of a previous ruling, allowing him to continue collecting tariffs until the appeal is resolved [1][2][3] - Market sentiment appears to be influenced by this development, with a previous expectation of a complete tariff cancellation being overly optimistic [4][5] - The recent market fluctuations reflect extreme reactions, particularly in the context of short-term trading, with significant losses in previously popular assets [5][6] Group 2 - Trump's recent comments suggest a serious violation of agreements made in Switzerland, although specifics were not provided [8][9] - The timing of Trump's statements was strategic, aimed at generating media attention and market response [12][13] - The approach taken by Trump is seen as a form of extreme pressure to prompt dialogue and concessions from other parties [14] Group 3 - The innovative drug sector has shown strong performance, driven by significant news, including a $6 billion licensing deal between a Hong Kong company and Pfizer [16] - Business Development (BD) is a key strategy for Chinese innovative drugs to enter international markets, with two main models: License-out and New-Co [17][18] - China's innovative drug development has made significant progress, with 3,575 active innovative drugs expected by the end of 2024, surpassing the U.S. [21] - The focus for future innovation should be on creating unique solutions rather than competing in saturated markets, to better serve public health needs [26]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court has blocked Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, stating that the IEEPA does not grant the president unlimited authority to impose tariffs, leading to the invalidation of global tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and fentanyl tariffs [1][2]. Legal Issues - The court identified three legal issues: 1. Trade deficits are a long-term phenomenon, not an emergency situation [2]. 2. Historically, IEEPA has been used for sanctions and anti-terrorism, not for imposing tariffs on other countries [2]. 3. The U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to impose tariffs, not the president [2]. Court Ruling and Appeal - The court ruled that Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs was an abuse of law, halting the tariffs immediately. However, tariffs based on Sections 232 and 301 remain unaffected [2]. - The Trump administration has appealed the ruling to the Circuit Court and requested an emergency stay to continue imposing tariffs during the appeal process [3]. Political Implications - The ruling represents a significant setback for Trump and indicates a consolidation of establishment forces in the U.S. [3]. - There are differing opinions on whether Trump will succeed in his appeal, with some suggesting that the Supreme Court may not intervene in the long-standing power struggle between Congress and the presidency [6]. Economic Impact - Trump's economic policy relies on internal tax cuts and external tariffs, making it unlikely for him to abandon the tariff strategy as it is crucial for his administration's financial plans [7]. - The ruling complicates Trump's ability to impose tariffs, as alternative legal avenues may lead to further litigation and delays [8]. Market Reaction - Following the news, the Chinese stock market experienced a broad rally, with the A-share market seeing a slight increase and significant trading volume [9]. - The technology sector performed well, while consumer stocks faced declines, indicating a shift in market sentiment and investment focus [9]. Future Outlook - The current market sentiment remains optimistic, with the Shanghai Composite Index positioned for potential growth, particularly in the technology sector [10].

先说个资金面的大事。 中国公募基金行业 新一轮 变革 重头戏来了，首批浮动费率基金正式获批发行。 这次的变革核心在哪呢？ 简单来说，就是基金公司要凭自己真本事赚钱了，只有给客户创造的收益高，才有资格多拿管理费。 至于那些创造不了收益的，不好意思，只能拿到最低的费率水平。 我看了具体的动态调整的标准，还挺有意思的。 浮动费率，是根据基民持有的第一年业绩，从第二年开始，把管理费分为 基准、升档、降档 三个标准。 这样来看，还是挺严的，而对做不过指数的惩罚比对奖励要狠。 这就意味着，天然要求公募基金更贴着指数做，长期看，沪深300权重股为代表的中盘和大盘股自然会受 到更多的青睐，也能一定程度上扭转炒小炒烂的市场风气。 接下来公募基金行业的玩法就开始转变了，那些发被动ETF基金还能活的相对滋润，而之前光在营销上面 卷，没有赚钱能力的主动管理基金就要比较难了。 赚不到钱，自然就会被市场淘汰，这和新能源车的淘汰赛本质上是一回事，公募基金行业的新一轮大洗牌 开始了。 今天板块涨得最好的是珠宝首饰。 | 持有时间 | 管理费(年费率) | | --- | --- | | 0-1年 | 1.20%/年 持有期间年化收益率(R) ...

Group 1: Chemical Industry - A sudden explosion at Shandong Youdao Chemical, a major producer of chlorantraniliprole with an annual capacity of 11,000 tons, has sparked interest in the agricultural chemicals sector [1] - The market is particularly focused on glyphosate due to supply-demand imbalances, especially after Bayer's subsidiary Monsanto potentially facing bankruptcy, which could create a 370,000-ton production gap that needs to be filled by Chinese imports [1] - Current operating rates of Chinese manufacturers are around 60%, and global inventory levels are at a six-year low, indicating a likely price increase for glyphosate [1] Group 2: Robotics Sector - The robotics sector has seen a recent pullback due to significant share reductions by several listed companies, with reductions ranging from 2% to 4%, negatively impacting investor sentiment [2] - The valuation of robotics companies has increased after several rounds of price rises, and there are currently no new positive expectations, leading to a loosening of previously concentrated investments [2] - Despite the recent downturn, there are still opportunities for growth in the robotics sector, particularly as global leaders plan to achieve mass production by 2025, potentially leading to an annual output value exceeding 100 billion [2][3] Group 3: Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down and both the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index down by approximately 0.6% [4] - The trading volume remains around 1 trillion, with 2,500 stocks in the red, indicating a lack of momentum in the market [4] - Foreign investment is optimistic about the Chinese market, with Morgan Stanley highlighting low valuations and potential for attracting more funds, particularly in sectors like finance, real estate, and new consumption [4][6]

先说个大事。 有位汽车业的大佬爆料，说 "汽车界的恒大已经存在了，只是还没爆雷"。 各路群众开始吃瓜模式，开始猜测含沙射影到底在说谁。很多人在那猜，说的是迪子，毕竟他俩互相锤 过。 负债方面，2020 年的时候，比亚迪的总负债还只有 1366 亿人民币，当时还有很多人质疑这个电池起家的 公司能否在汽车界立足， 四年过去了，比亚迪负债翻了 4.4 倍，尤其是 2023 年，债务增长直接飙升到 75%， 比亚迪的负债扩张速度极快。 能说比亚迪负债这么多，就有"恒大式"的风险了吗？ 那就比较外行了。 因为跟恒大不一样，比亚迪欠的，都是没有利息的钱。比亚迪只有5%的负债要付利息。 讲白了，负债大，单纯是比亚迪的规模太大了。 他手上的负债，都是正常的供应链的垫付款（占42%）、和卖车的合同负债（钱收了，还没交车），它的财务结构中 95%都是这种没有利息的负债。 供应链这块，虽然迪子为了追求压降成本，争议很大，但从财报上看，应付账款的周转日期是127天，比行业标准的 150天还短，至少说明资金还是比较健康的。 所以，真正需要付利息的，类似银行贷款这种负债，比亚迪一共才200多亿，而比亚迪手上光现金就将近1200亿。 而把 ...